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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Middlesbrough Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "98d59ada9f758cfec03838b4cf3b1b1caa5d353c08c04326f318bb5c2e374885",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1814,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2332,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5854,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.1814,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1814,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.422,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2332,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2332,
"fair_odds_away": 5.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.51,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.29,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.29,
"fair_odds_home": 1.71,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.71,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.93,
"home_win_prob": 0.5854,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5854,
"over_25_prob": 0.579,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.421
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Middlesbrough or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Middlesbrough"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Middlesbrough",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.069,
"edge_gap": 0.3519,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6541,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.2,
"draw": 23.3,
"home": 58.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.47
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Middlesbrough Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.53,
"market_odds": 1.47,
"model_odds": 1.71,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": -9.5,
"value_pct": -14.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 85.5,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.93,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Middlesbrough or Draw",
"prob": 81.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Middlesbrough or Millwall",
"prob": 76.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Millwall",
"prob": 41.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Middlesbrough or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.1,
"draw_pct": 23.3,
"home_pct": 58.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Middlesbrough"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.01,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.01,
"under_prob": 42.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 15.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Millwall Win",
"model_prob": 18.1,
"odds": 6.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Millwall",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 14.64,
"draw": 19.95,
"home": 65.41
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:42:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:15:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Middlesbrough",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.41,
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.52
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.95,
"gap_pp": 3.37,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.64,
"gap_pp": 3.52,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.16
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.08,
"gap_pp": -3.18,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 57.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.92,
"gap_pp": 3.18,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 42.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.82,
"early": 4.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.95,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 6.57,
"early": 6.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.2,
"ev": -0.0215,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.103,
"model_prob_pct": 10.3,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.93,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"edge_pp": -1.3,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5879
},
"p_final": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1141,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0538,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.4,
"text": "+5.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0441,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0538,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 57.9,
"sort_key": 10048.42,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 42.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.093,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0054,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Middlesbrough",
"sort_key": 5204.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"p_final": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0347,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0058,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0058,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 1798.55,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Millwall",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.87,
"hero_label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.4,
"market_team": "Middlesbrough",
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"model_team": "Middlesbrough",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.87,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.93,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.93,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.93 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +43%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Millwall",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Middlesbrough 1.93 xG vs Millwall 1.08 \u2192 Middlesbrough 58.5%",
"Market: Middlesbrough ~65.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Middlesbrough projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 58.54,
"label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob": 65.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob": 23.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"fair_prob": 18.14,
"label": "Millwall",
"market_prob": 14.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.62,
"fair_prob": 57.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob": 42.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.34,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.34,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.41,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Millwall"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Middlesbrough\u0027s win probability at 65.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 58.5%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Middlesbrough",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 65.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Middlesbrough \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Middlesbrough 1.93 xG vs Millwall 1.08 \u2192 Middlesbrough 58.5%",
"Market: Middlesbrough ~65.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Middlesbrough projects stronger on expected goals (+0.85 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.87,
"hero_label": "Middlesbrough",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Millwall odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Millwall has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Middlesbrough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Middlesbrough. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Millwall has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Middlesbrough above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Millwall has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on Millwall."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.2 pp (at 58.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 35.2,
"max_prob_pct": 58.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Middlesbrough",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Middlesbrough higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.87,
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Middlesbrough",
"market_prob_pct": 65.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.37,
"edge_pp": 3.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.5,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Millwall",
"market_prob_pct": 14.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Millwall \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Middlesbrough (65.4%).",
"However, Millwall has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 9/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Middlesbrough \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.03,
"closing_odds": 1.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.03,
"entry_odds": 1.47,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +61.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 61.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.6
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books lengthened Millwall together (25.0% drift, score 78) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.57",
"5.79",
"5.00"
],
"display": "6.57 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 6.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 60h 9m",
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.57"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
6.57,
6.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Millwall odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Millwall",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Millwall",
"steam_score": 78,
"steam_team_name": "Millwall",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "millwall",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Millwall",
"away_team_id": 58,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/58.webp",
"away_team_name": "Millwall",
"away_team_public_id": "4NXHpxkRa8xT84",
"away_team_slug": "millwall",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563147,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Middlesbrough",
"home_team_id": 70,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/70.webp",
"home_team_name": "Middlesbrough",
"home_team_public_id": "2eESl4nYViufW6",
"home_team_slug": "middlesbrough",
"ht.home_team_slug": "middlesbrough",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Anh",
"league_id": 40,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i H\u1ea1ng Nh\u1ea5t Anh",
"league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4iBUv7fNelHSbn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Middlesbrough",
"venue_name": "Riverside Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 6.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.1464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.1816,
"p_final": 0.153
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 4.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.1995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.2332,
"p_final": 0.2059
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5379,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1464,
"draw": 0.1995,
"home": 0.6541
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"p_final": 0.617
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.57,
"edge": 0.0294,
"ev": 0.1931,
"implied_prob": 0.1522,
"model_prob": 0.1816
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.82,
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": 0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"model_prob": 0.2332
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0951,
"ev": -0.1398,
"implied_prob": 0.6803,
"model_prob": 0.5852
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.532,
"alpha_yes": 0.5852,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.72,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0234,
"edge_yes": 0.0234,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0995,
"ev_yes": -0.0058,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_no": 0.4454,
"implied_yes": 0.5546,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4329,
"p_final_yes": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5868,
"alpha_under": 0.4268,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": -0.0162,
"edge_under": 0.0162,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0538,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1005,
"ev_under": 0.0441,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"implied_over": 0.5952,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6005,
"implied_under": 0.4048,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"p_final": 0.5879
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5879,
"p_final_under": 0.4087,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0538,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0538,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1931,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Middlesbrough at 58.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Middlesbrough as the value side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Middlesbrough",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Middlesbrough \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.04 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +19% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563147 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.04 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Middlesbrough).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"Outlier price +19% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.85"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.85
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
"draw_prob": 0.2332,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5852,
"over_prob": 0.579,
"total_xg": 3.01,
"under_prob": 0.421,
"xg_diff": 0.85
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Middlesbrough"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.532,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0124,
"ev": -0.0995,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4329
},
"p_final": 0.5683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5852,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5683
}
},
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5868,
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"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
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"p_final": 0.5879
},
"p_final": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.421,
"p_final": 0.4087
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.579,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1563147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0538,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1816,
"draw": 0.2332,
"home": 0.5852
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.579,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Millwall",
"home": "Middlesbrough"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.093,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6541,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6802721088435374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1398,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T19:17:37.130115+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Middlesbrough & Millwall!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Hạng Nhất Anh — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 8 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Southampton | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Norwich City | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Millwall | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Swansea City | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Birmingham City | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 15 | Cardiff City | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Burnley | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Preston North End | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 23 | Watford | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Derby County | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | +4.6 | 10 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | +4.4 | 14 |
| 3 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | +4.3 | 13 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | +3.5 | 15 |
| 5 | Wrexham | 8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Swansea City | 8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 7 | Millwall | 8 | 8.6 | 7.2 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Birmingham City | 8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.3 | 11 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 8 | 4.9 | 4.0 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 10 | Norwich City | 8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | +0.2 | 9 |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff City | 8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 16 | Burnley | 8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | -1.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Watford | 8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 8 | 4.5 | 6.4 | -1.9 | 11 |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2.8 | 4.7 | -1.9 | 9 |
| 20 | Derby County | 8 | 4.5 | 6.8 | -2.3 | 5 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | -2.6 | 14 |
| 22 | Bristol City | 8 | 4.1 | 6.9 | -2.8 | 13 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3.4 | 6.5 | -3.1 | 12 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 8 | 2.2 | 5.6 | -3.4 | 13 |
