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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Petřín Plzeň Petřín Plzeň ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Petřín Plzeň win · Petřín Plzeň 4–3 Spartak Pribram
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Spartak Pribram",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Spartak Pribram"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0581,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.419,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.12
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.12,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.39,
"market_odds": 2.12,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -11.1,
"value_pct": -23.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 or Spartak Pribram",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Spartak Pribram",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 or Spartak Pribram",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -23.5,
"implied_prob": 47.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.12
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Spartak Pribram",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 26.6,
"home": 41.9
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 08:14:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 07:44:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.9,
"gap_pp": -5.81,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.6,
"gap_pp": 3.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.5,
"gap_pp": 2.74,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.74,
"gap_pp": -11.54,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.26,
"gap_pp": 11.54,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.34,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0172,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5738
},
"p_final": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.047,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.047,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0132,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3715,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1125,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0596,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6285,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6105
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1623,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0783,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"sort_key": 1780.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.79,
"hero_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"market_team": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1623,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.79,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1623,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 1.32 xG vs Spartak Pribram 1.28 \u2192 Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 36.1%",
"Market: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.79,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"market_prob": 41.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Spartak Pribram",
"market_prob": 31.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.1,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.1,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148\u0027s win probability at 41.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 1.32 xG vs Spartak Pribram 1.28 \u2192 Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 36.1%",
"Market: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.79,
"hero_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.79,
"edge_pp": -5.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.05,
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.74,
"edge_pp": 2.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Spartak Pribram",
"market_prob_pct": 31.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 (41.9%).",
"Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Spartak Pribram",
"away_team_id": 27887,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Spartak Pribram",
"away_team_public_id": "22fZdyuBvnUjNF",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562293,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"home_team_id": 7330,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7330.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"home_team_public_id": "0cOwPWAJagTR5f",
"home_team_slug": "petrin-plzen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "petrin-plzen",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "H\u1ea1ng T\u01b0 - Divizie A C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_id": 350,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/350.webp",
"league_name": "H\u1ea1ng T\u01b0 - Divizie A C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a S\u00e9c",
"league_public_id": "60uzpt8N1W7FlN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 08:15:00",
"public_id": "5HeGkIpUGTxy61",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "SK Petrin Pilsen - grass"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4315,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.315,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.266,
"home": 0.419
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3268
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.266,
"home": 0.419
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2748
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4108,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1623,
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.315,
"draw": 0.266,
"home": 0.419
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3952
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.1108,
"ev": -0.2348,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1574,
"alpha_yes": 0.2165,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.081,
"edge_yes": -0.081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0596,
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1179,
"implied_no": 0.374,
"implied_yes": 0.626,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6285,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6105
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3846,
"p_final_yes": 0.6105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2047,
"alpha_under": 0.1489,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": -0.1134,
"edge_under": 0.1134,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1222,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.047,
"implied_over": 0.5954,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5974,
"implied_under": 0.4046,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4026,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5738
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.047,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4198
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5738,
"p_final_under": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1623,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.1623,
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.3715,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1574,
"best_odd": 2.445,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0596,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3846
},
"p_final": 0.3846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0596,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.6285,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6105
}
},
"edge": 0.081,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.374,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5738
},
"p_final": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.047,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.047,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1134,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562293,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.374,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.374,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Spartak Pribram",
"home": "Pet\u0159\u00edn Plze\u0148"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1623,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562293,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T08:14:07.182566+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Petřín Plzeň & Spartak Pribram!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Hạng Tư - Divizie A Cộng hòa Séc — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petřín Plzeň | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Křimice | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Spartak Pribram | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Hořovicko | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Spartak Soběslav | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Komárov | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Doubravka | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Strakonice | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Rokycany | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Pribram | 8 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 17 |
| 2 | Petřín Plzeň | 9 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | Spartak Soběslav | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 9 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 12 |
| 5 | Křimice | 9 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 | Strakonice | 8 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 7 |
| 7 | Táborsko II | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 8 | Hořovicko | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 8 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 10 | Doubravka | 9 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Komárov | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Nyrsko | 8 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 3 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Milevsko | 9 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 2 |
| 15 | Rokycany | 8 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
