Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Glentoran Glentoran ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Glentoran win · Glentoran 2–0 Dungannon Swifts
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b337caf91db95dfce3937536db1516ecea1becf3c081823e8b6b8d1748c9847e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"away_win_prob": 0.2664,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.465,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2902,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.75,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.26,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.49,
"home_win_prob": 0.4434,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Glentoran or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Glentoran"
},
"away_xg": 1.11,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Glentoran",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1154,
"edge_gap": 0.1528,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5584,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.7,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 44.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.7
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.7,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Glentoran Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.79,
"market_odds": 1.7,
"model_odds": 2.26,
"overround": 5.4,
"prob_edge": -14.6,
"value_pct": -24.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 67.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 77.5,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.11,
"home_expected": 1.49,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Glentoran or Draw",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Glentoran or Dungannon Swifts",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Dungannon Swifts",
"prob": 55.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Glentoran or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.6,
"draw_pct": 29.0,
"home_pct": 44.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Glentoran"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.4,
"implied_prob": 23.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.0,
"odds": 4.22
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Dungannon Swifts",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.67,
"draw": 22.49,
"home": 55.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:54:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:35:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Glentoran",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.17,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.84,
"gap_pp": -11.54,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.29
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.49,
"gap_pp": 6.52,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.67,
"gap_pp": 5.02,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.29,
"gap_pp": -9.09,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.71,
"gap_pp": 9.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.84,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.17,
"implied_early_pct": 56.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.22,
"early": 4.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.06,
"implied_early_pct": 22.43,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.38,
"early": 4.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 21.56,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 57.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.71,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.11,
"implied_early_pct": 42.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.2,
"ev": 0.107,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.49,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0165,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4343,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.5657,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5476
},
"p_final": 0.4508,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.093,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0489,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4343,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4508
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.6,
"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1655,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10298.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.434,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0235,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0747,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0044,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1066,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.7,
"text": "-10.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0044,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 5203.52,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1482,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0011,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2471,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Glentoran",
"sort_key": 2199.912,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.5,
"hero_label": "Glentoran",
"market_prob_pct": 55.8,
"market_team": "Glentoran",
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_team": "Glentoran",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Glentoran at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Glentoran as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Glentoran",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Glentoran \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1562083 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1482,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2471,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.11,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.49,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.49,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.49 \u00b7 Away xG 1.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Glentoran at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Glentoran as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Glentoran",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Glentoran \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1562083 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1482,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2471,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Glentoran 1.49 xG vs Dungannon Swifts 1.11 \u2192 Glentoran 44.3%",
"Market: Glentoran ~55.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Glentoran with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.5,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Glentoran",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.53,
"fair_prob": 29.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.97,
"fair_prob": 26.64,
"label": "Dungannon Swifts",
"market_prob": 21.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.91,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.91,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Glentoran",
"market_prob_pct": 55.84,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Glentoran\u0027s win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Glentoran",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.5,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Glentoran \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Glentoran 1.49 xG vs Dungannon Swifts 1.11 \u2192 Glentoran 44.3%",
"Market: Glentoran ~55.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Glentoran with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.5,
"hero_label": "Glentoran",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Glentoran than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Glentoran than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Glentoran more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Glentoran",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Glentoran higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.5,
"edge_pp": -11.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Glentoran",
"market_prob_pct": 55.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.53,
"edge_pp": 6.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.49,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.97,
"edge_pp": 4.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dungannon Swifts",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Glentoran (55.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.7%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Glentoran \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.22 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 4.00) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.22",
"3.98",
"3.75"
],
"display": "4.22 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 17m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.22"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
4.22,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "dungannon-swifts",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Dungannon Swifts",
"away_team_id": 5351,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5351.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dungannon Swifts",
"away_team_public_id": "4hNTCR4mMxgTVC",
"away_team_slug": "dungannon-swifts",
"country_code": "GB-NIR",
"country_display_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-nir.svg",
"country_id": 119,
"country_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1562083,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Glentoran",
"home_team_id": 5352,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5352.webp",
"home_team_name": "Glentoran",
"home_team_public_id": "4vWulfXZqN80Ri",
"home_team_slug": "glentoran",
"ht.home_team_slug": "glentoran",
"league_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_display_name": "NIFL Premiership",
"league_id": 408,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/408.webp",
"league_name": "NIFL Premiership",
"league_public_id": "2ff0SKcn9sVMsD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0huU12TMBAK9UF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belfast",
"venue_name": "The BetMcLean Oval"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1849,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2249,
"home": 0.5584
},
"model_prob": 0.2669,
"p_final": 0.226
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1804,
"best_odd": 4.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.2249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2249,
"home": 0.5584
},
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2367
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4961,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.1482,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2249,
"home": 0.5584
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"p_final": 0.5011
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.1692,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2669
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.22,
"edge": 0.0532,
"ev": 0.2244,
"implied_prob": 0.237,
"model_prob": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.1453,
"ev": -0.247,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.4429
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2145,
"alpha_yes": 0.236,
"best_no_odd": 2.16,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0291,
"edge_yes": -0.0291,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0044,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0747,
"ev_yes": -0.1066,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1005,
"implied_no": 0.4359,
"implied_yes": 0.5641,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4406,
"p_final_yes": 0.5587,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2164,
"alpha_under": 0.1968,
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.11,
"edge_over": -0.0852,
"edge_under": 0.0852,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1129,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0489,
"implied_over": 0.5672,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5657,
"implied_under": 0.4328,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4343,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.5657,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5476
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4343,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4508
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5476,
"p_final_under": 0.4508,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2244,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Glentoran at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Glentoran as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Glentoran",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Glentoran \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1562083 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Glentoran).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1482,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2471,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4429,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.38
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.1482,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Glentoran"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.434,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0747,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.236,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.566,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5587
}
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0044,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0165,
"market_prob": 0.4343,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2164,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.5657,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5476
},
"p_final": 0.4508,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0489,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4343,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4508
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0852,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562083,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2669,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.4429
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dungannon Swifts",
"home": "Glentoran"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.06001,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4328,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1482,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2471,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562083,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:54:03.115392+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Glentoran & Dungannon Swifts!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
NIFL Premiership — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Linfield FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 | Larne FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Crusaders FC | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Glentoran | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Cliftonville | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Carrick Rangers | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Ballymena United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Bangor | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Portadown | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Crusaders FC | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | Glentoran | 9 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | Larne FC | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 |
| 5 | Linfield FC | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 | Cliftonville | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Ballymena United | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Carrick Rangers | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Bangor | 9 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 5 |
| 11 | Limavady United | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Portadown | 9 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 1 |
