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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Limavady United Limavady United ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Limavady United win · Crusaders FC 1–2 Limavady United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Crusaders FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Crusaders FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Limavady United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0492,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.88
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.88,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Limavady United Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.02,
"market_odds": 2.88,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": 3.3,
"value_pct": 9.5,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Crusaders FC or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Crusaders FC or Limavady United",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Limavady United",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Crusaders FC or Limavady United",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Limavady United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.5,
"implied_prob": 34.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Limavady United Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 2.88
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Limavady United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.11,
"draw": 26.13,
"home": 40.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:01:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:36:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Crusaders FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.76,
"gap_pp": -8.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.13,
"gap_pp": 3.47,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"gap_pp": 4.92,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.92,
"gap_pp": -6.72,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.08,
"gap_pp": 6.72,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
"early": 3.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.88,
"early": 2.88,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.74,
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"implied_early_pct": 54.92,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0141,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5364
},
"p_final": 0.4622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0464,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4622
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1613,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0982,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10238.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.167,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.008,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4079,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.167,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.416
},
"p_final": 0.416,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0192,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0703,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.581
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0442,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0442,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10039.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0128,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0128,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0953,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Limavady United",
"sort_key": 5210.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"alert_team": "Crusaders FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.37,
"hero_label": "Crusaders FC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.1,
"market_team": "Crusaders FC",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Limavady United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Limavady United at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Limavady United as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Limavady United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0128,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0953,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.37,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"steam_team": "Crusaders FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Limavady United at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Limavady United as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Limavady United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0128,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0953,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Crusaders FC 1.24 xG vs Limavady United 1.36 \u2192 Limavady United 38.0%",
"Market: Crusaders FC ~33.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Crusaders FC odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Limavady United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.37,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Crusaders FC",
"market_prob": 40.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.46,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.9,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Limavady United",
"market_prob": 33.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.39,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Crusaders FC",
"market_prob_pct": 40.76,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Crusaders FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Crusaders FC\u0027s win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Limavady United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Limavady United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Crusaders FC 1.24 xG vs Limavady United 1.36 \u2192 Limavady United 38.0%",
"Market: Crusaders FC ~33.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Crusaders FC odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Limavady United with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.37,
"hero_label": "Crusaders FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Crusaders FC odds lengthened \u2191 +7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Crusaders FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Crusaders FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Crusaders FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Crusaders FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Crusaders FC above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Crusaders FC (\u2191 +7.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/10) supports the current market view on Crusaders FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Crusaders FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Crusaders FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.37,
"edge_pp": -8.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Crusaders FC",
"market_prob_pct": 40.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.46,
"edge_pp": 3.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.9,
"edge_pp": 4.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Limavady United",
"market_prob_pct": 33.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Crusaders FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Crusaders FC (33.1%).",
"However, Crusaders FC has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.1%, 8/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Limavady United, Market \u2192 Crusaders FC, while Crusaders FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "8/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Crusaders FC (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.34",
"2.22",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.34 \u2192 2.09 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 37m",
"pick_team": "Crusaders FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.09"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.34,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.34"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/10 sportsbooks on Crusaders FC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Crusaders FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Crusaders FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/10",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Crusaders FC",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Crusaders FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "limavady-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Limavady United",
"away_team_id": 11114,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11114.webp",
"away_team_name": "Limavady United",
"away_team_public_id": "1ndeAMJvAxp2nk",
"away_team_slug": "limavady-united",
"country_code": "GB-NIR",
"country_display_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-nir.svg",
"country_id": 119,
"country_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1562058,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Crusaders FC",
"home_team_id": 697,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/697.webp",
"home_team_name": "Crusaders FC",
"home_team_public_id": "2OiZ816E0Ilkr1",
"home_team_slug": "crusaders-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "crusaders-fc",
"league_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_display_name": "NIFL Premiership",
"league_id": 408,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/408.webp",
"league_name": "NIFL Premiership",
"league_public_id": "2ff0SKcn9sVMsD",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "60Q8XeLcXDZY5A",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belfast",
"venue_name": "Seaview"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2613,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3516
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2844,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0103,
"implied_prob": 0.2613,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2613,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3934,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3311,
"draw": 0.2613,
"home": 0.4076
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.1036,
"ev": -0.2425,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.167,
"alpha_yes": 0.2297,
"best_no_odd": 2.29,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0439,
"edge_yes": -0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0442,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0703,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"implied_no": 0.4121,
"implied_yes": 0.5879,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.167,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.416
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.581
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.416,
"p_final_yes": 0.581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2215,
"alpha_under": 0.2014,
"best_over_odd": 1.74,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0679,
"edge_under": 0.0679,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1613,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1203,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0664,
"implied_over": 0.5499,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5519,
"implied_under": 0.4501,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4481,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5364
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4622
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5364,
"p_final_under": 0.4622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0982,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Limavady United at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Limavady United as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Limavady United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Limavady United).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0128,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0953,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Limavady United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.167,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.4079,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.167,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.416
},
"p_final": 0.416,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0703,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.581
}
},
"edge": 0.0439,
"ev": 0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.4481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5364
},
"p_final": 0.4622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0664,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4622
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0679,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562058,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Limavady United",
"home": "Crusaders FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0128,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0953,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562058,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:01:20.611926+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Crusaders FC & Limavady United!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
NIFL Premiership — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Linfield FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 | Larne FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Cliftonville | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Glentoran | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Carrick Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Ballymena United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Bangor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Portadown | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Crusaders FC | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Larne FC | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Linfield FC | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Cliftonville | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Glentoran | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Carrick Rangers | 8 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Bangor | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
| 11 | Limavady United | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Portadown | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 |
