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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz Lechia Zielona Góra ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lechia Zielona Góra win · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–3 Lechia Zielona Góra
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d76abb18ba7c725caaabf4b00232f150245266195e269ffc6ecf72a2d9f295c7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1442,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5439,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.68
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.68,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.84,
"market_odds": 1.68,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 9.4,
"prob_edge": -19.5,
"value_pct": -32.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz or Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz or Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.8,
"implied_prob": 23.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra Win",
"model_prob": 30.6,
"odds": 4.34
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.05,
"draw": 24.56,
"home": 54.39
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 15:59:57",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 15:31:18",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.39,
"gap_pp": -14.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.56,
"gap_pp": 4.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.05,
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.54,
"gap_pp": -8.34,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.46,
"gap_pp": 8.34,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.39,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.56,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.34,
"early": 4.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.54,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.46,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.7,
"ev": 0.1625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.3,
"market_prob": 0.1075,
"market_prob_pct": 10.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0171,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4307,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5693,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5505
},
"p_final": 0.4478,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0956,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.053,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4307,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4478
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.15,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.0,
"text": "+15.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.15,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10285.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0048,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4351,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0806,
"implied_prob": 0.4351,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"p_final": 0.4399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0449,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0806,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5649,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5596
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0054,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0054,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5204.32,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2002,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.0,
"text": "-20.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0156,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"sort_key": 1796.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.45,
"hero_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"market_prob_pct": 54.4,
"market_team": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561675 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2002,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561675 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2002,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz 1.40 xG vs Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 1.20 \u2192 Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz 39.9%",
"Market: Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz ~54.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.45,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"market_prob": 54.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.53,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"market_prob": 21.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.09,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"market_prob_pct": 54.39,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz\u0027s win probability at 54.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz 1.40 xG vs Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra 1.20 \u2192 Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz 39.9%",
"Market: Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz ~54.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.45,
"hero_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.45,
"edge_pp": -14.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"market_prob_pct": 54.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.92,
"edge_pp": 4.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.56,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.53,
"edge_pp": 9.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"market_prob_pct": 21.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz (54.4%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.0%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz, Market \u2192 Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 78h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Draw (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.67",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.34 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 78h 46m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
3.72,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,3.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lechia-zielona-gora",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"away_team_id": 14143,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14143.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"away_team_public_id": "0fPgAvhCCY4O3R",
"away_team_slug": "lechia-zielona-gora",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1561675,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"home_team_id": 3492,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3492.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"home_team_public_id": "48XkrQ6dVMSU82",
"home_team_slug": "sandecja-nowy-sacz",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sandecja-nowy-sacz",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_id": 109,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/109.webp",
"league_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_public_id": "5kAPo8EJElUiHj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4okTKcdOCOYNkP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1715,
"best_odd": 4.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.2105,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2105,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.5439
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2268
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2779,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2456,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2105,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.5439
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2593
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4702,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0678,
"ev": -0.2002,
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2105,
"draw": 0.2456,
"home": 0.5439
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4761
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.34,
"edge": 0.0752,
"ev": 0.3262,
"implied_prob": 0.2304,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.1956,
"ev": -0.3285,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2176,
"alpha_yes": 0.2394,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0209,
"edge_yes": -0.0209,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0054,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0806,
"ev_yes": -0.0932,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.099,
"implied_no": 0.4361,
"implied_yes": 0.5639,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0806,
"implied_prob": 0.4351,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5649,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5596
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4399,
"p_final_yes": 0.5596,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2151,
"alpha_under": 0.1955,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.22,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.115,
"edge_over": -0.0843,
"edge_under": 0.0843,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1191,
"ev_under": 0.15,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.053,
"implied_over": 0.5663,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5693,
"implied_under": 0.4337,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4307,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5693,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5505
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4307,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4478
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5505,
"p_final_under": 0.4478,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3262,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.15,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.15,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1561675 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2002,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0678,
"ev": -0.2002,
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0048,
"market_prob": 0.4351,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0806,
"implied_prob": 0.4351,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4399
},
"p_final": 0.4399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0806,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2394,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.5649,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5596
}
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0054,
"implied_prob": 0.4361,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.4307,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5693,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5505
},
"p_final": 0.4478,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.053,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1955,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4307,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4478
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0843,
"ev": 0.15,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561675,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.15,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lechia Zielona G\u00f3ra",
"home": "Sandecja Nowy S\u0105cz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.05439,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.15,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2002,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3285,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561675,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T15:59:59.296578+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sandecja Nowy Sącz & Lechia Zielona Góra!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
II liga – East — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 13 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 14 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
