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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Legia Warszawa II Legia Warszawa II ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.18
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Legia Warszawa II win · Legia Warszawa II 3–0 Podhale Nowy Targ
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Podhale Nowy Targ and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Podhale Nowy Targ"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Legia Warszawa II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0151,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3458,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.65
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Legia Warszawa II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.89,
"market_odds": 2.65,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -1.6,
"value_pct": -4.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Legia Warszawa II or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Legia Warszawa II or Podhale Nowy Targ",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Legia Warszawa II or Podhale Nowy Targ",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Legia Warszawa II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.0,
"implied_prob": 25.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.92
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.04,
"draw": 23.38,
"home": 34.58
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:00:00",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 09:30:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Legia Warszawa II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.58,
"gap_pp": 1.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.38,
"gap_pp": 6.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.04,
"gap_pp": -7.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.35,
"gap_pp": -18.15,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.65,
"gap_pp": 18.15,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.58,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.92,
"early": 3.92,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.18,
"early": 2.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.04,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.35,
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"implied_early_pct": 66.35,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.76,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.65,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3986,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.5,
"text": "-32.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 49.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4918,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10592.62,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3301,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3484
},
"p_final": 0.3484,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2512,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6448
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3104,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.7,
"text": "-23.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3104,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10279.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.6,
"text": "-6.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0166,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Legia Warszawa II",
"sort_key": 1795.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.8,
"hero_label": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"market_team": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Legia Warszawa II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legia Warszawa II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legia Warszawa II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legia Warszawa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legia Warszawa II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legia Warszawa II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legia Warszawa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Legia Warszawa II 1.32 xG vs Podhale Nowy Targ 1.28 \u2192 Legia Warszawa II 36.1%",
"Market: Podhale Nowy Targ ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Legia Warszawa II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Legia Warszawa II",
"market_prob": 34.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.27,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.8,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"market_prob": 42.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.82,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.82,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.42,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.42,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"market_prob_pct": 42.04,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Podhale Nowy Targ\u0027s win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Legia Warszawa II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Legia Warszawa II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Legia Warszawa II 1.32 xG vs Podhale Nowy Targ 1.28 \u2192 Legia Warszawa II 36.1%",
"Market: Podhale Nowy Targ ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Legia Warszawa II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.8,
"hero_label": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Podhale Nowy Targ. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Podhale Nowy Targ. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Podhale Nowy Targ above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Podhale Nowy Targ higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.53,
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Legia Warszawa II",
"market_prob_pct": 34.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.27,
"edge_pp": 6.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.8,
"edge_pp": -7.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"market_prob_pct": 42.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Podhale Nowy Targ (34.6%).",
"However, Draw has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.7%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Legia Warszawa II, Market \u2192 Podhale Nowy Targ, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.87,
"closing_odds": 2.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.87,
"entry_odds": 2.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 26m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (5.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.92",
"3.71",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.10 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 37h 26m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.92,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "podhale-nowy-targ",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"away_team_id": 12834,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12834.webp",
"away_team_name": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"away_team_public_id": "1G2YqFbViAqIXO",
"away_team_slug": "podhale-nowy-targ",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1561663,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Legia Warszawa II",
"home_team_id": 6944,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6944.webp",
"home_team_name": "Legia Warszawa II",
"home_team_public_id": "2gqHe7AZ00qV3q",
"home_team_slug": "legia-warszawa-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "legia-warszawa-ii",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_id": 109,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/109.webp",
"league_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_public_id": "5kAPo8EJElUiHj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 10:00:00",
"public_id": "1yEpJoaP07Ktsy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Legia Training Center"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3974,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.031,
"ev": -0.1511,
"implied_prob": 0.4204,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4204,
"draw": 0.2338,
"home": 0.3458
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3894
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2717,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0166,
"implied_prob": 0.2338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4204,
"draw": 0.2338,
"home": 0.3458
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2509
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4204,
"draw": 0.2338,
"home": 0.3458
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3525
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.1163,
"ev": -0.2536,
"implied_prob": 0.4587,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.92,
"edge": 0.0416,
"ev": 0.163,
"implied_prob": 0.2551,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1463,
"alpha_yes": 0.2011,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1242,
"edge_yes": -0.1242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3104,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.042,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"implied_no": 0.3308,
"implied_yes": 0.6692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3484
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6448
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3484,
"p_final_yes": 0.6448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1796,
"alpha_under": 0.1306,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.1782,
"edge_under": 0.1782,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1403,
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_over": 0.6602,
"implied_over_mf": 0.665,
"implied_under": 0.3398,
"implied_under_mf": 0.335,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6322,
"p_final_under": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4918,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Legia Warszawa II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Legia Warszawa II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Legia Warszawa II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Legia Warszawa II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.066,
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Legia Warszawa II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.3301,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1463,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3301,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3484
},
"p_final": 0.3484,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2011,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6699,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6448
}
},
"edge": 0.1242,
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3308,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"market_prob": 0.335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1782,
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561663,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4918,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3308,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3104,
"implied_prob": 0.3308,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Podhale Nowy Targ",
"home": "Legia Warszawa II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.178327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.066,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0436,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561663,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T10:00:05.521191+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Legia Warszawa II & Podhale Nowy Targ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
II liga – East — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 13 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 14 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
