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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Chojniczanka Chojnice Chojniczanka Chojnice ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-5 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Chojniczanka Chojnice win · Świt Skolwin 1–5 Chojniczanka Chojnice
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.3946,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2951,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.53,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Chojniczanka Chojnice"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0494,
"edge_gap": 0.0846,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3949,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Chojniczanka Chojnice Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.06,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -9.0,
"value_pct": -18.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 70.2,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u015awit Skolwin or Draw",
"prob": 60.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u015awit Skolwin or Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u015awit Skolwin or Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 6.5,
"implied_prob": 27.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.61
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.43,
"draw": 25.36,
"home": 30.21
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:59:54",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 14:32:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.21,
"gap_pp": 0.82,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.36,
"gap_pp": 4.12,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.43,
"gap_pp": -4.94,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.58,
"gap_pp": -13.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.42,
"gap_pp": 13.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.21,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.61,
"early": 3.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.43,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.58,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.42,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.42,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0195,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3906,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5826
},
"p_final": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2121,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0404,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4101
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.4,
"text": "-21.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2536,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 25.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2536,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10378.24,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0144,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3836
},
"p_final": 0.3836,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1242,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0563,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.611
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1836,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.4,
"text": "+18.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1692,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.9,
"text": "-16.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1836,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10165.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1271,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0428,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1865,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"sort_key": 1789.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.97,
"hero_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"market_team": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2536,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chojniczanka Chojnice at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chojniczanka Chojnice as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1865,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "12/12",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.97,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2536,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chojniczanka Chojnice at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chojniczanka Chojnice as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1865,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u015awit Skolwin 1.21 xG vs Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.39 \u2192 Chojniczanka Chojnice 39.5%",
"Market: Chojniczanka Chojnice ~44.4% implied",
"Market Steam: \u015awit Skolwin +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chojniczanka Chojnice with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"market_prob": 30.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.97,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"market_prob": 44.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.35,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.35,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"market_prob_pct": 44.43,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "\u015awit Skolwin"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Chojniczanka Chojnice \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u015awit Skolwin 1.21 xG vs Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.39 \u2192 Chojniczanka Chojnice 39.5%",
"Market: Chojniczanka Chojnice ~44.4% implied",
"Market Steam: \u015awit Skolwin +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chojniczanka Chojnice with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.97,
"hero_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, \u015awit Skolwin has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on \u015awit Skolwin.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, \u015awit Skolwin has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on \u015awit Skolwin."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, \u015awit Skolwin has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on \u015awit Skolwin."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.82,
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"market_prob_pct": 30.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.15,
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.97,
"edge_pp": -4.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"market_prob_pct": 44.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on \u015awit Skolwin.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chojniczanka Chojnice (44.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Chojniczanka Chojnice, Market \u2192 Chojniczanka Chojnice, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/12",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chojniczanka-chojnice",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"away_team_id": 3482,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3482.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"away_team_public_id": "3jcXjmBbDG3LD5",
"away_team_slug": "chojniczanka-chojnice",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1561659,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"home_team_id": 12902,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12902.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u015awit Skolwin",
"home_team_public_id": "16Z8dRMqPmitWL",
"home_team_slug": "swit-skolwin",
"ht.home_team_slug": "swit-skolwin",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_id": 109,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/109.webp",
"league_name": "II liga \u2013 East",
"league_public_id": "5kAPo8EJElUiHj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1UsjcnI5xM67HD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Szczecin",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski Skolwin"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4167,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1271,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4443,
"draw": 0.2536,
"home": 0.3021
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4238
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0428,
"implied_prob": 0.2536,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4443,
"draw": 0.2536,
"home": 0.3021
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2652
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2963,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0024,
"ev": -0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4443,
"draw": 0.2536,
"home": 0.3021
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3045
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.0905,
"ev": -0.1864,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.61,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": 0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.277,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.0598,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1641,
"alpha_yes": 0.2257,
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0835,
"edge_yes": -0.0835,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1836,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0563,
"ev_yes": -0.1692,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1202,
"implied_no": 0.3735,
"implied_yes": 0.6265,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3836
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.3836,
"p_final_yes": 0.611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2102,
"alpha_under": 0.1529,
"best_over_odd": 1.63,
"best_under_odd": 2.42,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.34,
"edge_over": -0.1219,
"edge_under": 0.1219,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1261,
"ev_under": 0.2536,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0404,
"implied_over": 0.6039,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6094,
"implied_under": 0.3961,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3906,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5826
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4101
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5826,
"p_final_under": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2536,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2536,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2536,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2536,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2536,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chojniczanka Chojnice at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chojniczanka Chojnice as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chojniczanka Chojnice).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1865,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1271,
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Chojniczanka Chojnice"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1641,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3836
},
"p_final": 0.3836,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0563,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2257,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.611
}
},
"edge": 0.0835,
"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3735,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0195,
"market_prob": 0.3906,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0268,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.6094,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5826
},
"p_final": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0404,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4101
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1219,
"ev": 0.2536,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1561659,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2536,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3735,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1836,
"implied_prob": 0.3735,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chojniczanka Chojnice",
"home": "\u015awit Skolwin"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.091955,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2536,
"implied_prob": 0.3961,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1271,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4443,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4854368932038835,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1865,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1561659,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:59:56.665027+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Świt Skolwin & Chojniczanka Chojnice!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
II liga – East — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 14 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa II | 9 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Hutnik Kraków | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 9 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 13 | Tychy 71 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
| 14 | Avia Świdnik | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 9 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 9 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
