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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Beltinci Beltinci ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Beltinci win · Ilirija 2–4 Beltinci
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2d9b09f7a402b0de12a0551d514ad8633c0bc0618155ed8028e24bfe2297935d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"away_win_prob": 0.3897,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.18,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.3148,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Beltinci",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Beltinci"
},
"away_xg": 1.38,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Beltinci",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.096,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4856,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 31.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Beltinci Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.06,
"market_odds": 1.85,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 11.3,
"prob_edge": -15.1,
"value_pct": -28.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 74.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 70.5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.38,
"home_expected": 1.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ilirija or Draw",
"prob": 61.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ilirija or Beltinci",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Beltinci",
"prob": 68.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ilirija or Beltinci",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.0,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Beltinci"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.5,
"implied_prob": 28.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ilirija Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Beltinci",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.56,
"draw": 26.27,
"home": 25.17
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 14:00:29",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 13:31:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ilirija",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.01,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.17,
"gap_pp": 6.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.27,
"gap_pp": 3.27,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.56,
"gap_pp": -9.6,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.57,
"early": 3.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.24,
"implied_early_pct": 24.93,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.42,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.77,
"implied_early_pct": 25.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.56,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.01,
"implied_early_pct": 49.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.84,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.4,
"implied_early_pct": 50.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.4,
"implied_early_pct": 49.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.3,
"ev": 0.025,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.2,
"market_prob": 0.122,
"market_prob_pct": 12.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0058,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4912,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.503
},
"p_final": 0.497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0236,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0631,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4912,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.497
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0256,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5220.48,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1928,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.3,
"text": "-19.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0402,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2791,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Beltinci",
"sort_key": 1789.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2444,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0021,
"edge_pp": 0.2,
"market_prob": 0.5355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4626
},
"p_final": 0.5376,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0752,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0861,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2444,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5376
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0789,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.9,
"text": "-7.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.048,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.048,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1788.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "Ilirija",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.59,
"hero_label": "Beltinci",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"market_team": "Beltinci",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Beltinci",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beltinci at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beltinci as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beltinci",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Beltinci \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1928,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2791,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.59,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Ilirija",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beltinci at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beltinci as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beltinci",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Beltinci \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1928,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2791,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ilirija 1.22 xG vs Beltinci 1.38 \u2192 Beltinci 39.0%",
"Market: Beltinci ~48.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ilirija odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Beltinci with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.31,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Ilirija",
"market_prob": 25.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.59,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Beltinci",
"market_prob": 48.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.89,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.45,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.45,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Beltinci",
"market_prob_pct": 48.56,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ilirija"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Beltinci\u0027s win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Beltinci",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Beltinci \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ilirija 1.22 xG vs Beltinci 1.38 \u2192 Beltinci 39.0%",
"Market: Beltinci ~48.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Ilirija odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Beltinci with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.59,
"hero_label": "Beltinci",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ilirija odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ilirija has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Beltinci. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Ilirija \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Beltinci. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Ilirija has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ilirija \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Beltinci above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Ilirija has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Ilirija."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Beltinci",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Beltinci higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.31,
"edge_pp": 6.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ilirija",
"market_prob_pct": 25.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.27,
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.59,
"edge_pp": -9.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Beltinci",
"market_prob_pct": 48.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ilirija \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Beltinci (48.6%).",
"However, Ilirija has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.7%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Beltinci \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Ilirija (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.57",
"3.29",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.68 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 101h 18m",
"pick_team": "Ilirija",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.57,
3.56,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,0.3 56.0,11.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Ilirija",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ilirija",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ilirija",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Ilirija",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "Ilirija",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "beltinci",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Beltinci",
"away_team_id": 4366,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4366.webp",
"away_team_name": "Beltinci",
"away_team_public_id": "1qdEIbyJxeUns4",
"away_team_slug": "beltinci",
"country_code": "SI",
"country_display_name": "Slovenia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/si.svg",
"country_id": 141,
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"fixture_id": 1558954,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Slovenia",
"home_team_display_name": "Ilirija",
"home_team_id": 4381,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4381.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ilirija",
"home_team_public_id": "3vQJfV7uAaWFoI",
"home_team_slug": "ilirija",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ilirija",
"league_country": "Slovenia",
"league_country_display": "Slovenia",
"league_display_name": "2. SNL",
"league_id": 374,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/374.webp",
"league_name": "2. SNL",
"league_public_id": "2pdIXWMnuaROBJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0z8TQ80wCS0A6Y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5136,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0493,
"ev": -0.1928,
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4856,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.2517
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4363
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2853,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0697,
"implied_prob": 0.2627,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4856,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.2517
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.272
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2715,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.2517,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4856,
"draw": 0.2627,
"home": 0.2517
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2688
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.1509,
"ev": -0.2791,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": 0.0103,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0348,
"ev": 0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2221,
"alpha_yes": 0.2444,
"best_no_odd": 2.02,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0045,
"edge_yes": 0.0045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0789,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0933,
"ev_yes": -0.048,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0861,
"implied_no": 0.4605,
"implied_yes": 0.5395,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4626
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2444,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5376
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4626,
"p_final_yes": 0.5376,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.216,
"alpha_under": 0.216,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.98,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.885,
"edge_over": -0.0289,
"edge_under": 0.0289,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0846,
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0631,
"implied_over": 0.5109,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5088,
"implied_under": 0.4891,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4912,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.503
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4912,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.497
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.503,
"p_final_under": 0.497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1243,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0256,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Beltinci at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Beltinci as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Beltinci",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Beltinci \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1558954 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Beltinci).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1928,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2791,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0256,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4891,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0493,
"ev": -0.1928,
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Beltinci"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2444,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0021,
"market_prob": 0.5355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2221,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0933,
"implied_prob": 0.4645,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4626
},
"p_final": 0.5376,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0861,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2444,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.5355,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5376
}
},
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.5395,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0058,
"market_prob": 0.4912,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.5088,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.503
},
"p_final": 0.497,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0631,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 1.885,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4912,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.497
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.4891,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1558954,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0256,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Beltinci",
"home": "Ilirija"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1928,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4856,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2791,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1558954,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T14:00:31.801906+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ilirija & Beltinci!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
2. SNL — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Triglav | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Jesenice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Slovan Ljubljana | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Ilirija | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Rudar | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Bilje | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Dekani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Krka | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 16 | Brežice | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beltinci | 10 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Tabor Sežana | 10 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 10 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 22 |
| 4 | Rudar | 10 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Jesenice | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Bilje | 10 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 15 |
| 7 | Ilirija | 10 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Bistrica | 10 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Primorje | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Krka | 10 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Brežice | 10 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 10 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 | Krško | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Dekani | 10 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 15 |
