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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (5 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 RAAL La Louviere W RAAL La Louviere W ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
RAAL La Louviere W win · RAAL La Louviere W 3–2 Gent Nữ
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"bundle_version": 1,
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : RAAL La Louviere W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "RAAL La Louviere W"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0973,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.75
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.75,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "RAAL La Louviere W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.97,
"market_odds": 1.75,
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"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -16.2,
"value_pct": -28.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "RAAL La Louviere W or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "RAAL La Louviere W or Gent N\u1eef",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gent N\u1eef",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "RAAL La Louviere W or Gent N\u1eef",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "RAAL La Louviere W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.0,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.91
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.63,
"draw": 22.68,
"home": 50.68
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:57:52",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:32:06",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.68,
"gap_pp": -9.73,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.68,
"gap_pp": 6.71,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.63,
"gap_pp": 3.02,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.37,
"gap_pp": -11.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.63,
"gap_pp": 11.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.68,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.33,
"early": 3.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
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"implied_closing_pct": 40.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4111,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5667
},
"p_final": 0.4273,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.15,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0514,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4273
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4033,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"p_final": 0.4114,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0086,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1115,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1588,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.5967,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0419,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.2,
"text": "+4.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1777,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.8,
"text": "-17.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0419,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10037.71,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2003,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.0,
"text": "-20.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0423,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"sort_key": 1789.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"alert_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.77,
"hero_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"market_prob_pct": 50.7,
"market_team": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louviere W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louviere W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 73,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.77,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"steam_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louviere W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louviere W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RAAL La Louviere W 1.42 xG vs Gent N\u1eef 1.18 \u2192 RAAL La Louviere W 40.9%",
"Market: RAAL La Louviere W ~50.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Gent N\u1eef \u2193 -5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours RAAL La Louviere W, but sharp money moved toward Gent N\u1eef.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"market_prob": 50.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Gent N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 26.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.57,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.57,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.57,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"market_prob_pct": 50.68,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gent N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates RAAL La Louviere W\u0027s win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 73,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RAAL La Louviere W 1.42 xG vs Gent N\u1eef 1.18 \u2192 RAAL La Louviere W 40.9%",
"Market: RAAL La Louviere W ~50.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Gent N\u1eef \u2193 -5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours RAAL La Louviere W, but sharp money moved toward Gent N\u1eef.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.77,
"hero_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gent N\u1eef odds shortened \u2193 -5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Gent N\u1eef, with odds shortening by 5.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louviere W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louviere W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Gent N\u1eef, with odds shortening by 5.6%. Confirmation remains limited (3/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices RAAL La Louviere W above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gent N\u1eef has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 5.6%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.77,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices RAAL La Louviere W higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.77,
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"market_prob_pct": 50.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.72,
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.06,
"edge_pp": 3.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gent N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 26.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers RAAL La Louviere W (50.7%).",
"Gent N\u1eef has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.6%, 3/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 RAAL La Louviere W, Market \u2192 RAAL La Louviere W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Gent N\u1eef.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"closing_odds": 1.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
"entry_odds": 1.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Gent N\u1eef (swing 3.69 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 5.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.46",
"3.33"
],
"display": "3.69 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 28m",
"pick_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.33,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,13.3",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Gent N\u1eef while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Gent N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Gent N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gent-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gent N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 1789,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1789.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gent N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "2YcfqAWhcvQAm4",
"away_team_slug": "gent-w",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1557293,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"home_team_id": 27853,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"home_team_public_id": "41QoRUl7PZouXc",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Si\u00eau H\u1ea1ng N\u1eef B\u1ec9",
"league_id": 146,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/146.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Si\u00eau H\u1ea1ng N\u1eef B\u1ec9",
"league_public_id": "1nHsV7Dl3i2ezw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3bho7yARGbQ3cg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2864,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.275
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2698,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2449
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5125,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0498,
"ev": -0.2003,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2663,
"draw": 0.2268,
"home": 0.5068
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.457
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": 0.1492,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.1619,
"ev": -0.2833,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1443,
"alpha_yes": 0.1588,
"best_no_odd": 2.27,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0557,
"edge_yes": -0.0557,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0419,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"ev_yes": -0.1777,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1417,
"implied_no": 0.4033,
"implied_yes": 0.5967,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1588,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.5967,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4114,
"p_final_yes": 0.5878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2078,
"alpha_under": 0.1511,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.1057,
"edge_under": 0.1057,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1217,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0514,
"implied_over": 0.5877,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5889,
"implied_under": 0.4123,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4111,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5667
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4273
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5667,
"p_final_under": 0.4273,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RAAL La Louviere W at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RAAL La Louviere W as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RAAL La Louviere W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "73 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 73,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gent N\u1eef, but the model still strongly favours RAAL La Louviere W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0498,
"ev": -0.2003,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "RAAL La Louviere W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.4033,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"p_final": 0.4114,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1115,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1588,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1417,
"implied_prob": 0.5967,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"edge": 0.0557,
"ev": 0.0419,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.4111,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.5889,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5667
},
"p_final": 0.4273,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0514,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1511,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
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"p_final": 0.4273
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1057,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1557293,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gent N\u1eef",
"home": "RAAL La Louviere W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4123,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2003,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1557293,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:57:54.205536+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho RAAL La Louviere W & Gent Nữ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Siêu Hạng Nữ Bỉ — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht Nữ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Club Brugge Nữ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | OH Leuven Nữ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Genk Nữ | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Standard Liege Nữ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem Nữ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Gent Nữ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Leuven Nữ | 3 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 7 |
| 2 | Anderlecht Nữ | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Brugge Nữ | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gent Nữ | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Genk Nữ | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Standard Liege Nữ | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem Nữ | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
