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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Celtic Rangers ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.31
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Rangers win · Celtic 0–1 Rangers
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "16c2161fdc75038b9ad0187802f2fc4c0231de7e8b9fa41e565a79bf288ea4ff",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"away_win_prob": 0.1913,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.398,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.602,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2354,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.23,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.25,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.74,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.05,
"home_win_prob": 0.5733,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.616,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.384
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Celtic or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Celtic",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Celtic"
},
"away_xg": 1.13,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Celtic",
"confidence": 57.4,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Celtic",
"edge": 0.1547,
"edge_gap": 0.339,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4193,
"model_prob": 0.574,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 19.1,
"draw": 23.5,
"home": 57.4
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Celtic"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.31
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.31,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Celtic Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.39,
"market_odds": 2.31,
"model_odds": 1.74,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 14.2,
"value_pct": 32.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 87.1,
"no_prob": 39.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 60.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 60.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
"home_expected": 2.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Celtic or Draw",
"prob": 80.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Celtic or Rangers",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rangers",
"prob": 42.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Celtic or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 19.1,
"draw_pct": 23.5,
"home_pct": 57.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Celtic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.18,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.18,
"under_prob": 38.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.8,
"implied_prob": 43.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Celtic Win",
"model_prob": 57.5,
"odds": 2.31
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Rangers",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.75,
"draw": 26.32,
"home": 41.93
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:00:36",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 10:31:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Celtic",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.44,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.93,
"gap_pp": 15.47,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 57.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.32,
"gap_pp": -2.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.75,
"gap_pp": -12.66,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.15,
"gap_pp": 2.45,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 61.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.85,
"gap_pp": -2.45,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 38.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.31,
"early": 2.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.93,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.44,
"implied_early_pct": 44.36,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.53,
"implied_early_pct": 25.79,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.91,
"implied_early_pct": 29.85,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.15,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.84,
"implied_early_pct": 60.99,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.84,
"implied_early_pct": 39.01,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.6,
"ev": -0.0595,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.099,
"model_prob_pct": 9.9,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.05,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 2.3,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Celtic",
"edge": 13.9,
"ev": 32.2,
"probability": 57.4
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.092,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.092,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.574,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Celtic",
"sort_key": 10232.8,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4198,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0135,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3659,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.398,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4198,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"model_prob": 0.398,
"p_final": 0.3794
},
"p_final": 0.3794,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0069,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0402,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5772,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0467,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0789,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.9,
"text": "-7.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0467,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 39.8,
"sort_key": 10042.03,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 60.2
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5923,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0092,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.616,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5923,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.6097
},
"p_final": 0.6097,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0575,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0672,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.3928
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0144,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.4,
"text": "-1.4%"
},
"ev_under": -0.04,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0144,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 61.6,
"sort_key": 1796.4,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 38.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"alert_team": "Rangers",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.4,
"hero_label": "Celtic",
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"market_team": "Celtic",
"model_prob_pct": 57.3,
"model_team": "Celtic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.092,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celtic at 57.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celtic as the value side (57.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celtic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Celtic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556669 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.092,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.574,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.92"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.92
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.4,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.13,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.05,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.05,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.13 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +52%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"steam_team": "Rangers",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.092,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celtic at 57.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celtic as the value side (57.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celtic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Celtic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556669 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.092,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.574,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4329004329004329,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3259,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+32.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.92"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.92
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celtic 2.05 xG vs Rangers 1.13 \u2192 Celtic 57.3%",
"Market: Celtic ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Rangers \u2193 -20.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Celtic, but sharp money moved toward Rangers.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 15.4,
"fair_prob": 57.33,
"label": "Celtic",
"market_prob": 41.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.78,
"fair_prob": 23.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.62,
"fair_prob": 19.13,
"label": "Rangers",
"market_prob": 31.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob": 61.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.06,
"fair_prob": 38.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.07,
"fair_prob": 60.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.07,
"fair_prob": 39.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 15.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 57.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Celtic",
"market_prob_pct": 41.93,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Rangers"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Celtic\u0027s win probability at 57.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 41.9%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Celtic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.4,
"model_prob_pct": 57.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 57,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celtic 2.05 xG vs Rangers 1.13 \u2192 Celtic 57.3%",
"Market: Celtic ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Rangers \u2193 -20.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Celtic, but sharp money moved toward Rangers.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.4,
"hero_label": "Celtic",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Rangers odds shortened \u2193 -20.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Rangers, with odds shortening by 20.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Celtic.",
"note": "Buying interest on Rangers \u2014 odds shortened by 20.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Celtic.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Rangers, with odds shortening by 20.5%.",
"Buying interest on Rangers \u2014 odds shortened by 20.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Celtic more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Rangers has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on Rangers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 33.8 pp (at 57.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 33.8,
"max_prob_pct": 57.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Celtic",
"largest_gap_pp": 15.4,
"lead": "The model rates Celtic considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 15.4,
"edge_pp": 15.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 57.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Celtic",
"market_prob_pct": 41.93,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.78,
"edge_pp": -2.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.32,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.62,
"edge_pp": -12.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.13,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rangers",
"market_prob_pct": 31.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Rangers \u2014 odds shortened by 20.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Celtic (41.9%).",
"However, Rangers has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.5%, 9/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Celtic, Market \u2192 Celtic, Recent sharp money \u2192 Rangers.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.29,
"closing_odds": 2.31,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.29,
"entry_odds": 2.31,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 253h 25m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books synchronized on Rangers (20.5% steam, score 99) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.47",
"3.05"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 2.76 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 253h 25m",
"pick_team": "Rangers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
3.05,
3.24,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,18.0 37.3,14.0 56.0,16.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Rangers \u2193 -20.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Rangers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Rangers \u2193 -20.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Market moved toward Rangers while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Rangers",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.5%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Rangers",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_team_name": "Rangers",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rangers",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rangers",
"away_team_id": 257,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/257.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rangers",
"away_team_public_id": "5RuqDG7zKU8Pgo",
"away_team_slug": "rangers",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556669,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Celtic",
"home_team_id": 247,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/247.webp",
"home_team_name": "Celtic",
"home_team_public_id": "3iIeo6VvafSidN",
"home_team_slug": "celtic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "celtic",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Scotland",
"league_id": 179,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/179.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Scotland",
"league_public_id": "1PKN7lXDD29LSy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 11:00:00",
"public_id": "4g60WNNwUCXZQ5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Glasgow",
"venue_name": "Celtic Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.243,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3175,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4193
},
"model_prob": 0.191,
"p_final": 0.2868
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3175,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4193
},
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.2551
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3455,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0535,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3175,
"draw": 0.2632,
"home": 0.4193
},
"model_prob": 0.574,
"p_final": 0.4727
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.1369,
"ev": -0.4175,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.191
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1352,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.235
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.1411,
"ev": 0.326,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.574
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4198,
"alpha_yes": 0.5772,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0307,
"edge_yes": -0.0307,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0467,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0402,
"ev_yes": -0.0789,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1013,
"implied_no": 0.3673,
"implied_yes": 0.6327,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4198,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3659,
"model_prob": 0.398,
"p_final": 0.3794
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5772,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1013,
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.3794,
"p_final_yes": 0.6156,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5923,
"alpha_under": 0.4308,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": 0.0106,
"edge_under": -0.0106,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0144,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0672,
"ev_under": -0.04,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0965,
"implied_over": 0.6054,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6005,
"implied_under": 0.3946,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5923,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.6097
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4308,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.3928
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6097,
"p_final_under": 0.3928,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.18,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.092,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.326,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.092,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.092,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celtic at 57.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celtic as the value side (57.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celtic",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Celtic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556669 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Rangers, but the model still strongly favours Celtic.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.092,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4193,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.574,
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"strength_delta": -0.5,
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"separation_score": 5,
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},
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"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.235,
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"hero_display_pick": null,
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T11:00:39.043719+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Celtic & Rangers!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Vô địch Quốc gia Scotland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Dundee | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rangers | 7 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 11.1 | 1.9 | +9.2 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | +2.6 | 13 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 7 | 7.2 | 4.8 | +2.4 | 8 |
| 4 | St Mirren | 7 | 6.2 | 4.7 | +1.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Rangers | 7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | 16 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 6.7 | 5.6 | +1.1 | 8 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 7 | 7.8 | 7.3 | +0.5 | 7 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 6.9 | 8.3 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 7 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 8 |
| 10 | Dundee | 7 | 5.6 | 8.7 | -3.1 | 10 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1.7 | 5.3 | -3.6 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 3.1 | 11.9 | -8.8 | 5 |
