Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.47
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cerezo Osaka win · Cerezo Osaka 1–0 Shimizu S-Pulse
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "eef4de2572cca699dd7e1bef5ba5709d6678969be68548c5bfbdfe0c93734c85",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.215,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.339,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.661,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2262,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.65,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.79,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.5588,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.679,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.321
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Cerezo Osaka or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Cerezo Osaka",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Cerezo Osaka"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"confidence": 55.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Cerezo Osaka",
"edge": 0.1672,
"edge_gap": 0.3324,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3915,
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 21.5,
"draw": 22.6,
"home": 55.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Cerezo Osaka"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.47
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cerezo Osaka Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.55,
"market_odds": 2.47,
"model_odds": 1.79,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 15.4,
"value_pct": 38.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 88.7,
"no_prob": 33.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 66.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 66.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 2.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cerezo Osaka or Draw",
"prob": 78.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cerezo Osaka or Shimizu S-Pulse",
"prob": 77.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Shimizu S-Pulse",
"prob": 44.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Cerezo Osaka or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 21.5,
"draw_pct": 22.6,
"home_pct": 55.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Cerezo Osaka"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.5,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 67.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.5,
"under_prob": 32.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.1,
"implied_prob": 40.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Cerezo Osaka Win",
"model_prob": 55.9,
"odds": 2.47
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.09,
"draw": 29.75,
"home": 39.15
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 10:00:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 09:30:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cerezo Osaka",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 5.91,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.15,
"gap_pp": 16.72,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 55.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.75,
"gap_pp": -7.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.09,
"gap_pp": -9.59,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 21.51
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.64,
"gap_pp": 22.26,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 67.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.36,
"gap_pp": -22.26,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 32.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.47,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.15,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.58,
"implied_early_pct": 41.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.93,
"implied_early_pct": 27.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.11,
"early": 3.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.65,
"implied_early_pct": 30.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 1.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.64,
"implied_delta_pp": -5.91,
"implied_early_pct": 51.55,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 5.91,
"implied_early_pct": 48.45,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.3,
"ev": -0.1212,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 9.25,
"market_prob": 0.1081,
"market_prob_pct": 10.8,
"model_prob": 0.095,
"model_prob_pct": 9.5,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.18,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.32,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Cerezo Osaka",
"edge": 12.8,
"ev": 29.6,
"probability": 55.9
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.6,
"text": "+10.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.6,
"text": "+10.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.38,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"sort_key": 10245.58,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 67.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 33.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 66.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.73,
"hero_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"market_team": "Cerezo Osaka",
"model_prob_pct": 55.9,
"model_team": "Cerezo Osaka",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3799,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerezo Osaka at 55.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerezo Osaka as the value side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerezo Osaka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cerezo Osaka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.38,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 61.5,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 62%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "2/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 61.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.18,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.18,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +61%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3799,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerezo Osaka at 55.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerezo Osaka as the value side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerezo Osaka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cerezo Osaka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.38,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 61.5,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 62%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cerezo Osaka 2.18 xG vs Shimizu S-Pulse 1.32 \u2192 Cerezo Osaka 55.9%",
"Market: Cerezo Osaka ~39.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Shimizu S-Pulse odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cerezo Osaka, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 16.73,
"fair_prob": 55.88,
"label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"market_prob": 39.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 22.62,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.59,
"fair_prob": 21.5,
"label": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"market_prob": 31.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 67.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 32.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 66.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 16.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cerezo Osaka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.15,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Shimizu S-Pulse"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cerezo Osaka\u0027s win probability at 55.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 39.1%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 16.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.8,
"model_prob_pct": 55.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cerezo Osaka \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.8 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cerezo Osaka 2.18 xG vs Shimizu S-Pulse 1.32 \u2192 Cerezo Osaka 55.9%",
"Market: Cerezo Osaka ~39.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Shimizu S-Pulse odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cerezo Osaka, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 16.73,
"hero_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Shimizu S-Pulse odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Shimizu S-Pulse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cerezo Osaka.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cerezo Osaka.",
"However, Shimizu S-Pulse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Cerezo Osaka more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Shimizu S-Pulse has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 33.3 pp (at 55.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 33.3,
"max_prob_pct": 55.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"largest_gap_pp": 16.7,
"lead": "The model rates Cerezo Osaka considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 16.73,
"edge_pp": 16.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"market_prob_pct": 39.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.13,
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.59,
"edge_pp": -9.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"market_prob_pct": 31.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cerezo Osaka (39.1%).",
"Shimizu S-Pulse odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 2/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Cerezo Osaka \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.8 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.49,
"closing_odds": 2.47,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.49,
"entry_odds": 2.47,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Shimizu S-Pulse (swing 3.20 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.20) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.15",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 16m",
"pick_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.11,
3.18,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,16.2 37.3,3.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/14",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"away_team_id": 283,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/283.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"away_team_public_id": "2qt74zn1LPX6ov",
"away_team_slug": "shimizu-s-pulse",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1556025,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Cerezo Osaka",
"home_team_id": 291,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/291.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cerezo Osaka",
"home_team_public_id": "4DtrOKC4bh7XLi",
"home_team_slug": "cerezo-osaka",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J1 League",
"league_id": 98,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/98.webp",
"league_name": "J1 League",
"league_public_id": "2xJTTSjiNCIcFD",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-08-22 10:00:00",
"public_id": "1w1iMJb1kMeDlN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Osaka",
"venue_name": "Yodoko Sakura Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2569,
"best_odd": 3.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1096,
"implied_prob": 0.3109,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3109,
"draw": 0.2975,
"home": 0.3915
},
"model_prob": 0.2151,
"p_final": 0.2863
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2679,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.095,
"implied_prob": 0.2975,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3109,
"draw": 0.2975,
"home": 0.3915
},
"model_prob": 0.2263,
"p_final": 0.2784
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3372,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0564,
"ev": 0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3109,
"draw": 0.2975,
"home": 0.3915
},
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"p_final": 0.4479
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.11,
"edge": -0.1065,
"ev": -0.3312,
"implied_prob": 0.3215,
"model_prob": 0.2151
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0814,
"ev": -0.2647,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2263
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": 0.1538,
"ev": 0.3799,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.5587
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.5,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3799,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1062,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3799,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerezo Osaka at 55.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerezo Osaka as the value side (55.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerezo Osaka",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cerezo Osaka \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1556025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cerezo Osaka), but pricing still diverges by 16.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.38,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 61.5,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 62%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.86"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.86
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.661,
"draw_prob": 0.2263,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5587,
"over_prob": 0.679,
"total_xg": 3.5,
"under_prob": 0.321,
"xg_diff": 0.86
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0564,
"ev": 0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cerezo Osaka"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.661,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1556025,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1062,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2151,
"draw": 0.2263,
"home": 0.5587
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shimizu S-Pulse",
"home": "Cerezo Osaka"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.071201,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cerezo Osaka",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.47,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3915,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5587,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4048582995951417,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.38,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556025,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-22T10:00:12.080045+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cerezo Osaka & Shimizu S-Pulse!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
J1 League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 19 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 3 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | +1.4 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 17 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | +0.7 | 11 |
| 7 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | 12 |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | +0.5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | +0.3 | 9 |
| 10 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 13 |
| 11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 12 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 4 |
| 13 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 18 |
| 14 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 15 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 4 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 8 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 19 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | — | — | — | 17 |
| 20 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | — | — | — | 13 |
