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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Thespakusatsu Gunma Roasso Kumamoto ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Roasso Kumamoto win · Thespakusatsu Gunma 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "96aa57103a9d8513fb26f0be51795dc915794f80bdb56200e4be04bf4a6970e6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"away_win_prob": 0.3331,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.0,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3706,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Roasso Kumamoto",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Roasso Kumamoto"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0352,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3353,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.73
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.73,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Thespakusatsu Gunma Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.98,
"market_odds": 2.73,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 0.4,
"value_pct": 1.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.26,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma or Draw",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma or Roasso Kumamoto",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Roasso Kumamoto",
"prob": 62.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma or Roasso Kumamoto",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.3,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.3,
"implied_prob": 36.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Thespakusatsu Gunma Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 2.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.46,
"draw": 27.01,
"home": 33.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 07:59:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 07:29:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.15,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.53,
"gap_pp": 3.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.01,
"gap_pp": 2.59,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.46,
"gap_pp": -6.11,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.51,
"gap_pp": -4.31,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.49,
"gap_pp": 4.31,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.73,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.53,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.14,
"implied_early_pct": 33.67,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.39,
"early": 3.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.01,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.01,
"implied_early_pct": 27.02,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.15,
"implied_early_pct": 39.31,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.14,
"implied_early_pct": 52.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.49,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.14,
"implied_early_pct": 47.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.473,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"p_final": 0.4824,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0593,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4824
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0058,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4284,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0286,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0731,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.5716,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.1,
"text": "-10.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.001,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5200.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0436,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0436,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"sort_key": 1789.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"alert_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.15,
"hero_label": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"market_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Thespakusatsu Gunma at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Thespakusatsu Gunma as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.15,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"steam_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Thespakusatsu Gunma at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Thespakusatsu Gunma as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.34 xG vs Roasso Kumamoto 1.26 \u2192 Thespakusatsu Gunma 37.1%",
"Market: Roasso Kumamoto ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Roasso Kumamoto \u2193 -9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Thespakusatsu Gunma, but sharp money moved toward Roasso Kumamoto.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"market_prob": 33.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.15,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"market_prob": 39.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.59,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.59,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"market_prob_pct": 39.46,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Roasso Kumamoto"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Roasso Kumamoto\u0027s win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.34 xG vs Roasso Kumamoto 1.26 \u2192 Thespakusatsu Gunma 37.1%",
"Market: Roasso Kumamoto ~33.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Roasso Kumamoto \u2193 -9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Thespakusatsu Gunma, but sharp money moved toward Roasso Kumamoto.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.15,
"hero_label": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Roasso Kumamoto odds shortened \u2193 -9.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Roasso Kumamoto. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Roasso Kumamoto.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Roasso Kumamoto. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Roasso Kumamoto."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Roasso Kumamoto above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Roasso Kumamoto (\u2193 -9.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Roasso Kumamoto."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Roasso Kumamoto higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.53,
"edge_pp": 3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"market_prob_pct": 33.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.62,
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.01,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.15,
"edge_pp": -6.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"market_prob_pct": 39.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Roasso Kumamoto.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Roasso Kumamoto (33.5%).",
"However, Roasso Kumamoto has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.3%, 5/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Thespakusatsu Gunma, Market \u2192 Roasso Kumamoto, Recent sharp money \u2192 Roasso Kumamoto.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.1,
"closing_odds": 2.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.1,
"entry_odds": 2.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Roasso Kumamoto (9.3%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.51",
"2.32"
],
"display": "2.75 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 12m",
"pick_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.32,
2.33,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,18.0 37.3,17.5 56.0,11.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Roasso Kumamoto \u2193 -9.3% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Roasso Kumamoto \u2193 -9.3% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Roasso Kumamoto while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "roasso-kumamoto",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"away_team_id": 314,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/314.webp",
"away_team_name": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"away_team_public_id": "13OEAbSdDW8Jo3",
"away_team_slug": "roasso-kumamoto",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1555716,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"home_team_id": 756,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/756.webp",
"home_team_name": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"home_team_public_id": "5g9lkRnrILPACe",
"home_team_slug": "thespakusatsu-gunma",
"ht.home_team_slug": "thespakusatsu-gunma",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J3 League",
"league_id": 100,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/100.webp",
"league_name": "J3 League",
"league_public_id": "03hQrX5ZjwbmYG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 08:00:00",
"public_id": "5meISQP0U3xpXQ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Maebashi",
"venue_name": "Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4087,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3946,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3946,
"draw": 0.2701,
"home": 0.3353
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3696
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2883,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.2701,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3946,
"draw": 0.2701,
"home": 0.3353
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2775
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4262,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3946,
"draw": 0.2701,
"home": 0.3353
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3503
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.0976,
"ev": -0.2263,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.39,
"edge": 0.001,
"ev": 0.0034,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": 0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.216,
"alpha_yes": 0.2376,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0259,
"edge_yes": -0.0259,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0731,
"ev_yes": -0.1008,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0955,
"implied_no": 0.4291,
"implied_yes": 0.5709,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.5716,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4341,
"p_final_yes": 0.5653,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2308,
"alpha_under": 0.2098,
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0423,
"edge_under": 0.0423,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0959,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0593,
"implied_over": 0.5243,
"implied_over_mf": 0.527,
"implied_under": 0.4757,
"implied_under_mf": 0.473,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4824
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5166,
"p_final_under": 0.4824,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Thespakusatsu Gunma at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Thespakusatsu Gunma as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Thespakusatsu Gunma",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Roasso Kumamoto, but the model still strongly favours Thespakusatsu Gunma.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4757,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Thespakusatsu Gunma"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0058,
"market_prob": 0.4284,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4341
},
"p_final": 0.4341,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0731,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2376,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0063,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.5716,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5653
}
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.473,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2308,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.527,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"p_final": 0.4824,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0593,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4824
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4757,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1555716,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Roasso Kumamoto",
"home": "Thespakusatsu Gunma"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0115,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555716,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T07:59:37.501883+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Thespakusatsu Gunma & Roasso Kumamoto!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
J3 League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Parceiro Nagano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 15 | Kitakyushu | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 9 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Gifu | 9 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 9 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Osaka | 10 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 10 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Fukushima United | 9 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Biwako Shiga | 9 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 17 |
| 11 | Kitakyushu | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Parceiro Nagano | 9 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | FC Ryukyu | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 9 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 |
| 19 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 9 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 5 |
