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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Hapoel Katamon Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Ironi Tiberias 2–2 Hapoel Katamon
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Ironi Tiberias or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Ironi Tiberias"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0343,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3902,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hapoel Katamon Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.56,
"market_odds": 2.44,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -5.4,
"value_pct": -13.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ironi Tiberias or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Katamon",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hapoel Katamon",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Katamon",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Hapoel Katamon"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.5,
"implied_prob": 32.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ironi Tiberias Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.04
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.02,
"draw": 29.66,
"home": 31.32
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 16:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 15:59:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ironi Tiberias",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.32,
"gap_pp": 3.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.66,
"gap_pp": 0.02,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.02,
"gap_pp": -3.43,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.3,
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.7,
"gap_pp": -4.9,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.32,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.21,
"early": 3.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.66,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.02,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.1,
"ev": -0.244,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4403,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"p_final": 0.4491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.017,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0524,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.55
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0089,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0089,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4884
},
"p_final": 0.5116,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0001,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0612,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5116
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0836,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.4,
"text": "-8.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0184,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"sort_key": 1795.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.38,
"hero_label": "Ironi Tiberias",
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"market_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Hapoel Katamon",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Katamon at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Katamon as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Katamon",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0836,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.38,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ironi Tiberias",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Katamon at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Katamon as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Katamon",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0836,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Tiberias 1.29 xG vs Hapoel Katamon 1.31 \u2192 Hapoel Katamon 35.6%",
"Market: Hapoel Katamon ~39.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Tiberias +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hapoel Katamon with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.38,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Ironi Tiberias",
"market_prob": 31.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.01,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.38,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"market_prob": 39.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.28,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.28,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.23,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ironi Tiberias",
"market_prob_pct": 31.32,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Tiberias"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Hapoel Katamon \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Tiberias 1.29 xG vs Hapoel Katamon 1.31 \u2192 Hapoel Katamon 35.6%",
"Market: Hapoel Katamon ~39.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Tiberias +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hapoel Katamon with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.38,
"hero_label": "Ironi Tiberias",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ironi Tiberias",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.38,
"edge_pp": 3.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ironi Tiberias",
"market_prob_pct": 31.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.01,
"edge_pp": -0.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.38,
"edge_pp": -3.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hapoel Katamon",
"market_prob_pct": 39.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hapoel Katamon (39.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hapoel Katamon, Market \u2192 Hapoel Katamon, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.89,
"closing_odds": 3.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.89,
"entry_odds": 3.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Ironi Tiberias",
"steam_score": 1,
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Tiberias",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hapoel-katamon",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"away_team_id": 4486,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4486.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hapoel Katamon",
"away_team_public_id": "0j7boeW6xn0wZV",
"away_team_slug": "hapoel-katamon",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555504,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Ironi Tiberias",
"home_team_id": 6181,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6181.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ironi Tiberias",
"home_team_public_id": "286bqzk9b72Lpi",
"home_team_slug": "ironi-tiberias",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ironi-tiberias",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027al",
"league_id": 383,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/383.webp",
"league_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027al",
"league_public_id": "4qIijuRaW49qA9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 16:30:00",
"public_id": "33KBKdiL0uVvWO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nof HaGalil",
"venue_name": "Green Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4269,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3902,
"draw": 0.2966,
"home": 0.3132
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3756
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2999,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.2966,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3902,
"draw": 0.2966,
"home": 0.3132
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0184,
"implied_prob": 0.3132,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3902,
"draw": 0.2966,
"home": 0.3132
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3229
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.0539,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.0473,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2107,
"alpha_yes": 0.2107,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0423,
"edge_yes": 0.0423,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0941,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0612,
"implied_no": 0.4973,
"implied_yes": 0.5027,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0089,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4884
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5116
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4884,
"p_final_yes": 0.5116,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2109,
"alpha_under": 0.232,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0428,
"edge_under": -0.0428,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0524,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.087,
"implied_over": 0.4392,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4403,
"implied_under": 0.5608,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5597,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.55
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4491,
"p_final_under": 0.55,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hapoel Katamon at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hapoel Katamon as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hapoel Katamon",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hapoel Katamon).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0836,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hapoel Katamon"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0089,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4884
},
"p_final": 0.5116,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0612,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2107,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5116
}
},
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4403,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.4403,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4491
},
"p_final": 0.4491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0524,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.5597,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.55
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4392,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1555504,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hapoel Katamon",
"home": "Ironi Tiberias"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4392,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0836,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555504,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T16:29:06.520183+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ironi Tiberias & Hapoel Katamon!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligat Ha'al — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
