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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Hapoel Kfar Shalem ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win · Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7061f84c0b1b721f849a9d7cef46f36338512d47367933ff7462c0d164245ae9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1115,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2642,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.46
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.46,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.79,
"market_odds": 3.46,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.4,
"prob_edge": 8.7,
"value_pct": 30.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 30.1,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.42,
"draw": 24.44,
"home": 49.14
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 16:00:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 15:30:26",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.14,
"gap_pp": -16.27,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.44,
"gap_pp": 5.12,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.42,
"gap_pp": 11.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.95,
"gap_pp": -16.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.05,
"gap_pp": 16.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.86,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.14,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
"early": 3.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.44,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.42,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3848,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"p_final": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2173,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10438.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3854,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3966
},
"p_final": 0.3966,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0738,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.6146,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5992
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0104,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0104,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2999,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"sort_key": 5208.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"alert_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.29,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"market_team": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0104,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2999,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.29,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"steam_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0104,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2999,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.25 xG vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35 \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.5%",
"Market: Hapoel Kfar Shalem ~26.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -16.29,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"market_prob": 49.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.17,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"market_prob": 26.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.77,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.77,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"market_prob_pct": 49.14,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hapoel Kfar Shalem\u0027s win probability at 49.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.25 xG vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.35 \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 37.5%",
"Market: Hapoel Kfar Shalem ~26.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds \u2191 +13.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.29,
"hero_label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds lengthened \u2191 +13.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Kfar Shalem than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Hapoel Kfar Shalem than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Hapoel Kfar Shalem more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hapoel Kfar Shalem higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -16.29,
"edge_pp": -16.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"market_prob_pct": 49.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.17,
"edge_pp": 5.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.44,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.12,
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"market_prob_pct": 26.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hapoel Kfar Shalem (26.4%).",
"However, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +13.8%, 6/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, Market \u2192 Hapoel Kfar Shalem, while Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.76,
"closing_odds": 1.86,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.76,
"entry_odds": 1.86,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (13.8%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.48",
"3.25"
],
"display": "4.04 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 43m",
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.04"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.46,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,9.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds \u2191 +13.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa odds \u2191 +13.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maccabi-kabilio-jaffa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"away_team_id": 6192,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6192.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"away_team_public_id": "1S7Uu0QcslBp9M",
"away_team_slug": "maccabi-kabilio-jaffa",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555157,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"home_team_id": 6160,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6160.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem",
"home_team_public_id": "1YmQQuqweugKjd",
"home_team_slug": "hapoel-kfar-shalem",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hapoel-kfar-shalem",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Liga Leumit",
"league_id": 382,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/382.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Leumit",
"league_public_id": "1DJVjvuHAOkKJ3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0LKzdpbaYViFsR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2498,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0279,
"ev": 0.0104,
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2642,
"draw": 0.2444,
"home": 0.4914
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.292
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2769,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.2444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2642,
"draw": 0.2444,
"home": 0.4914
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2586
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4535,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0738,
"ev": -0.2232,
"implied_prob": 0.4914,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2642,
"draw": 0.2444,
"home": 0.4914
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4176
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0866,
"ev": 0.2998,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": 0.0283,
"ev": 0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.2089,
"ev": -0.3886,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1612,
"alpha_yes": 0.2217,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0677,
"edge_yes": -0.0677,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0639,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1132,
"implied_no": 0.3873,
"implied_yes": 0.6127,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3966
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.6146,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5992
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3966,
"p_final_yes": 0.5992,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1981,
"alpha_under": 0.144,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1327,
"edge_under": 0.1327,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0506,
"implied_over": 0.6147,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6152,
"implied_under": 0.3853,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3848,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5888,
"p_final_under": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0104,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2999,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0279,
"ev": 0.0104,
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1612,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.3854,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0639,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3966
},
"p_final": 0.3966,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0639,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.6146,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5992
}
},
"edge": 0.0677,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3873,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"market_prob": 0.3848,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0264,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5888
},
"p_final": 0.404,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.144,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.404
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1327,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1555157,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3873,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3873,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa",
"home": "Hapoel Kfar Shalem"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3853,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0104,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.46,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2642,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28901734104046245,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2999,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+30.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555157,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T16:00:28.739194+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Hapoel Kfar Shalem & Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Leumit — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Kiryat Yam SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kafr Qasim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Ironi Modi'in | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiryat Yam SC | 8 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 8 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 8 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 15 |
| 4 | Ashdod | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Hapoel Afula | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 10 | Ironi Modi'in | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 8 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
| 12 | Maccabi Herzliya | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 8 | 0 | 23 | -23 | 0 |
