Tacna Heroica vs FBC Melgar Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
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      "fair_odds_away": 2.92,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.77,
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      "home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3611,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "No predictions available",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "33%",
      "percent_draw": "33%",
      "percent_home": "33%",
      "winner_name": null
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    "away_xg": 1.28,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0362,
        "edge_gap": 0.0185,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3247,
        "model_prob": 0.3609,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.2,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 36.1
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.74
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
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      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.74,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Tacna Heroica Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.08,
        "market_odds": 2.74,
        "model_odds": 2.77,
        "overround": 12.4,
        "prob_edge": -0.4,
        "value_pct": -1.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 0,
        "away_score_rate": 72.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 0,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.28,
        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.8
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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            "prob": 8.3
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 8.0
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Tacna Heroica or Draw",
            "prob": 65.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Tacna Heroica or FBC Melgar",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FBC Melgar",
            "prob": 63.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Tacna Heroica or FBC Melgar",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.2,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 36.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Tacna Heroica"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.0,
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        "pick": "Under 2.5",
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        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "implied_prob": 36.5,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Tacna Heroica Win",
        "model_prob": 36.1,
        "odds": 2.74
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "FBC Melgar",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Tacna Heroica",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 32.47,
          "gap_pp": 3.62,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 36.09
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.46,
          "gap_pp": 2.21,
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          "model_pct": 29.67
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.07,
          "gap_pp": -5.83,
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          "model_pct": 34.24
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 48.12,
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          "model_pct": 48.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 51.88,
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      "movement": [
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          "early": 2.74,
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          "closing": 3.24,
          "early": 3.24,
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          "closing": 2.22,
          "early": 2.22,
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          "closing": 1.93,
          "early": 1.93,
          "implied_closing_pct": 48.12,
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          "closing": 1.79,
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    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0601,
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          "raw_pct": -6.0,
          "text": "-6.0%"
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        "ev_under_display": {
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        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -1.9,
          "text": "-1.9%"
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        "tier": "risk",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "6/10",
        "alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +31.0%",
        "alert_team": "Tacna Heroica",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.83,
        "hero_label": "FBC Melgar",
        "market_prob_pct": 32.5,
        "market_team": "FBC Melgar",
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        "model_team": "Tacna Heroica",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 79,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.64,
          "fair_prob": 36.11,
          "label": "Tacna Heroica",
          "market_prob": 32.47,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.19,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.46,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.83,
          "fair_prob": 34.24,
          "label": "FBC Melgar",
          "market_prob": 40.07,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.36,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 49.56,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.36,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 50.44,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.04,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 54.46,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.04,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 45.54,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -5.83,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "FBC Melgar",
        "market_prob_pct": 40.07,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Tacna Heroica"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.83,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Tacna Heroica",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 32.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Tacna Heroica, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and FBC Melgar remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.83,
        "hero_label": "FBC Melgar",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Tacna Heroica odds lengthened \u2191 +31.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Tacna Heroica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FBC Melgar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on FBC Melgar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Tacna Heroica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices FBC Melgar above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Tacna Heroica has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.83,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Tacna Heroica",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.47,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.46,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.83,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "FBC Melgar",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.07,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers FBC Melgar (32.5%).",
          "However, Tacna Heroica has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +31.0%, 6/10).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tacna Heroica, Market \u2192 FBC Melgar, Recent sharp money \u2192 Tacna Heroica.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
        "closing_odds": 2.22,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
        "entry_odds": 2.22,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 6,
        "books_total": 10,
        "breadth_display": "6/10",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +31.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 31.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Tacna Heroica (31.0%, 6/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.85 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.85"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.3 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Tacna Heroica \u2191 +31.0% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Tacna Heroica \u2191 +31.0% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 79,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/10",
        "current_odds": 2.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +31.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
        "steam_score": 79,
        "steam_team_name": "Tacna Heroica",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
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    },
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      "away_team_name": "FBC Melgar",
      "country_code": "PE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Tacna",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Jorge Basadre"
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "slot": "hero_display"
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        "use_split_strip": true
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      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T20:29:04.256855+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}