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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.18
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Paris Saint-Germain win · Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Le Mans
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "b0e5261bb17aab0db14604f7600b2665a1b7674898ed212344e7c1fd14d9a63b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1454,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.1825,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.6721,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.1454,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1454,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.369,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.631,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1825,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.1825,
"fair_odds_away": 6.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.88,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 5.48,
"fair_odds_home": 1.49,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.49,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.79,
"home_win_prob": 0.6721,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.6721,
"over_25_prob": 0.607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.393
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Paris Saint-Germain or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1357,
"edge_gap": 0.4892,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.8076,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.5,
"draw": 18.3,
"home": 67.2
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.18
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.18,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Paris Saint-Germain Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.24,
"market_odds": 1.18,
"model_odds": 1.49,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": -17.6,
"value_pct": -20.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 83.3,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 63.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.79,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Draw",
"prob": 85.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Le Mans",
"prob": 81.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Le Mans",
"prob": 32.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Paris Saint-Germain or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.5,
"draw_pct": 18.2,
"home_pct": 67.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Paris Saint-Germain"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.14,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 60.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.14,
"under_prob": 39.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 88.5,
"implied_prob": 7.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Le Mans Win",
"model_prob": 14.5,
"odds": 13.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Le Mans",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 7.33,
"draw": 11.91,
"home": 80.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:44:19",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:25:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 80.76,
"gap_pp": -13.57,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 67.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 11.91,
"gap_pp": 6.36,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.33,
"gap_pp": 7.22,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.55
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.18,
"early": 1.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 80.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 80.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 8.0,
"early": 8.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 11.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 11.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 13.0,
"early": 13.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 7.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.4,
"ev": 1.0475,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 19.5,
"market_prob": 0.0513,
"market_prob_pct": 5.1,
"model_prob": 0.105,
"model_prob_pct": 10.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.79,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.2515,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.393,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.7485,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.7209
},
"p_final": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.462,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0177,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.217,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 57.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.572,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 60.7,
"sort_key": 10664.8,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 39.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.4893,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.5107,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"p_final": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2021,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0201,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.4893,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5144
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.321,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.1,
"text": "-32.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2305,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.1,
"text": "+23.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2305,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 36.9,
"sort_key": 10207.45,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 63.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1203,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.0,
"text": "+12.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"sort_key": 5296.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"alert_team": "Le Mans",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.55,
"hero_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.8,
"market_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"model_prob_pct": 67.2,
"model_team": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.79,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"steam_team": "Le Mans",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.44"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.44
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paris Saint-Germain 1.79 xG vs Le Mans 1.35 \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain 67.2%",
"Market: Paris Saint-Germain ~80.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paris Saint-Germain, but sharp money moved toward Le Mans.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob": 67.21,
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob": 80.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob": 18.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 11.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob": 14.54,
"label": "Le Mans",
"market_prob": 7.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.0,
"fair_prob": 60.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.0,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.31,
"fair_prob": 63.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.31,
"fair_prob": 36.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.21,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Le Mans"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Paris Saint-Germain\u0027s win probability at 80.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 67.2%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 80.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.6,
"model_prob_pct": 67.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 67,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Paris Saint-Germain 1.79 xG vs Le Mans 1.35 \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain 67.2%",
"Market: Paris Saint-Germain ~80.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Paris Saint-Germain, but sharp money moved toward Le Mans.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.55,
"hero_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Le Mans odds shortened \u2193 -26.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Le Mans, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Paris Saint-Germain than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Paris Saint-Germain than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Le Mans, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Paris Saint-Germain more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Le Mans has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 26.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/10) supports the current market view on Le Mans."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 49.0 pp (at 67.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 49.0,
"max_prob_pct": 67.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Paris Saint-Germain higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.55,
"edge_pp": -13.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.21,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"market_prob_pct": 80.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.34,
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 11.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.21,
"edge_pp": 7.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Le Mans",
"market_prob_pct": 7.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Le Mans \u2014 odds shortened by 26.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Paris Saint-Germain (80.8%).",
"However, Le Mans has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -26.1%, 9/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain, Market \u2192 Paris Saint-Germain, Recent sharp money \u2192 Le Mans.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 84.75,
"closing_odds": 1.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 84.75,
"entry_odds": 1.18,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -41.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -41.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -34.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -34.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 17.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 26.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books synchronized on Le Mans (26.1% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"23.00",
"18.00",
"13.00"
],
"display": "34.00 \u2192 14.92 \u2192 17.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "34.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "14.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "17.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
23.0,
13.0,
17.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,10.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "23.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "13.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "23.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "17.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 23.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Le Mans \u2193 -26.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 17.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"open_odds": 23.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Le Mans while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Le Mans",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 17.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"open_odds": 23.0,
"pick_team": "Le Mans",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Le Mans",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "le-mans",
"away_expected_goals": 0.19,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Le Mans",
"away_team_id": 1298,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1298.webp",
"away_team_name": "Le Mans",
"away_team_public_id": "0V1a73IFjGvroi",
"away_team_slug": "le-mans",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1552780,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 3,
"home_expected_goals": 1.32,
"home_goal_display": 3,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"home_team_id": 85,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/85.webp",
"home_team_name": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"home_team_public_id": "1kFsFdXyQdTasr",
"home_team_slug": "paris-saint-germain",
"ht.home_team_slug": "paris-saint-germain",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_public_id": "4dWbucryPZLZtA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4xbHXd8qGWmItg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Paris",
"venue_name": "Parc des Princes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1783,
"best_odd": 13.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": 0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.0733,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.1455,
"p_final": 0.0862
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 8.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": 0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.1191,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.1827,
"p_final": 0.1306
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4778,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0733,
"draw": 0.1191,
"home": 0.8076
},
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"p_final": 0.7427
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 13.0,
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.8915,
"implied_prob": 0.0769,
"model_prob": 0.1455
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 8.0,
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.4614,
"implied_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob": 0.1827
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.1756,
"ev": -0.2072,
"implied_prob": 0.8475,
"model_prob": 0.6718
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1772,
"alpha_yes": 0.1772,
"best_no_odd": 1.84,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1431,
"edge_yes": 0.1431,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.321,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"ev_yes": 0.2305,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0201,
"implied_no": 0.5121,
"implied_yes": 0.4879,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.825,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.5107,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4856
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1772,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.4893,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5144
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4856,
"p_final_yes": 0.5144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.195,
"alpha_under": 0.0886,
"best_over_odd": 1.29,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.72,
"edge_over": -0.14,
"edge_under": 0.14,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.217,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0177,
"implied_over": 0.747,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7485,
"implied_under": 0.253,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2515,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.7485,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"p_final": 0.7209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.0886,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"model_prob": 0.393,
"p_final": 0.264
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7209,
"p_final_under": 0.264,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.4879,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.572,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8915,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris Saint-Germain at 67.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 80.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris Saint-Germain as the value side (67.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris Saint-Germain",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Paris Saint-Germain \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +89% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552780 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +57.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +57.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +57.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +57.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+57.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +89% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Le Mans, but the model still strongly favours Paris Saint-Germain.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.8474576271186441,
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},
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"deviation_pct": 32.6,
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],
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"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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},
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},
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"hero_mode": "default",
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{
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"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Le Mans",
"slot": "longshot"
},
{
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],
"markets": {
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"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1236,
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"model_prob": 0.6718,
"side": "home",
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},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0251,
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
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"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"available": true,
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0276,
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},
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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},
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"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "strong",
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},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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}
],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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},
"top_pick": {
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"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
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"side": "under",
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.8076,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6718,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
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}
}
},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:21:59.241230+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Paris Saint-Germain & Le Mans!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligue 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | FC Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 2 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | RC Lens | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Lorient | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | OGC Nice | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | +5.0 | 5 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | +4.2 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | +3.9 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | +2.9 | 11 |
| 5 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 6 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | 5 |
| 7 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 8 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Lorient | 5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 5 |
| 10 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 11 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | -1.3 | 7 |
| 13 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 11 |
| 14 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | -1.8 | 2 |
| 15 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -2.1 | 5 |
| 16 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 7 |
| 17 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 3.1 | 6.1 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Mans | 5 | 5.2 | 8.6 | -3.4 | 6 |
