Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 AS Monaco Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · AS Monaco 2–2 Toulouse FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "30ba81f1370e5f3137553fd7bd12921ca2e0fe2cf29ef15c27ce9dab9d84931b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.237,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2738,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4892,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.04,
"away_win_prob": 0.237,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.237,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.509,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.491,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2738,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2738,
"fair_odds_away": 4.22,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.22,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.65,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.65,
"fair_odds_home": 2.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.04,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.4892,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4892,
"over_25_prob": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.58
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : AS Monaco or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "AS Monaco"
},
"away_xg": 1.04,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "AS Monaco",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0876,
"edge_gap": 0.216,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5772,
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 23.7,
"draw": 27.4,
"home": 49.0
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.65
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "AS Monaco Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.73,
"market_odds": 1.65,
"model_odds": 2.04,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -11.6,
"value_pct": -19.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 64.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 50.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.04,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "AS Monaco or Draw",
"prob": 76.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "AS Monaco or Toulouse FC",
"prob": 72.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Toulouse FC",
"prob": 51.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "AS Monaco or Draw",
"pick_prob": 76.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 23.7,
"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 48.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "AS Monaco"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.36,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.36,
"under_prob": 58.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 18.5,
"implied_prob": 20.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Toulouse FC Win",
"model_prob": 23.7,
"odds": 5.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Toulouse FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 19.05,
"draw": 23.23,
"home": 57.72
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:44:34",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:25:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "AS Monaco",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.76,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.72,
"gap_pp": -8.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 48.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.23,
"gap_pp": 4.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.05,
"gap_pp": 4.62,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 23.67
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.72,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.76,
"implied_early_pct": 59.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.1,
"early": 4.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.02,
"implied_early_pct": 23.21,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.0,
"early": 5.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.74,
"implied_early_pct": 17.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 19.0,
"edge": 4.6,
"ev": 86.6,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 9.8
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.2,
"ev": 0.105,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.13,
"model_prob_pct": 13.0,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3052,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0556,
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"market_prob": 0.3977,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.58,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4196,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0765,
"ev": -0.1666,
"implied_prob": 0.6023,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.5258
},
"p_final": 0.4534,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.392,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0881,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3052,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.4534
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.307,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.7,
"text": "-30.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.421,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.421,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"sort_key": 10528.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 58.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3607,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0339,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"market_prob": 0.4149,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3607,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4489
},
"p_final": 0.4489,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1376,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0032,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.5851,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5384
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2114,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.1,
"text": "+21.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2046,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2114,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.9,
"sort_key": 10190.26,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0046,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1922,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "AS Monaco",
"sort_key": 2199.632,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "AS Monaco",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.8,
"hero_label": "AS Monaco",
"market_prob_pct": 57.7,
"market_team": "AS Monaco",
"model_prob_pct": 48.9,
"model_team": "AS Monaco",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.421,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.421,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AS Monaco at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AS Monaco as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AS Monaco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1922,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.04,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.04 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "AS Monaco",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.421,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.421,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AS Monaco at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AS Monaco as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AS Monaco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1922,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AS Monaco 1.32 xG vs Toulouse FC 1.04 \u2192 AS Monaco 48.9%",
"Market: AS Monaco ~57.7% implied",
"Market Drift: AS Monaco odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours AS Monaco, but the market has moved away from AS Monaco.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob": 48.92,
"label": "AS Monaco",
"market_prob": 57.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob": 27.38,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob": 23.7,
"label": "Toulouse FC",
"market_prob": 19.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.15,
"fair_prob": 42.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.15,
"fair_prob": 58.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob": 49.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.6,
"fair_prob": 50.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.92,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "AS Monaco",
"market_prob_pct": 57.72,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "AS Monaco"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates AS Monaco\u0027s win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 48.9%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "AS Monaco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 57.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.8,
"model_prob_pct": 48.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AS Monaco 1.32 xG vs Toulouse FC 1.04 \u2192 AS Monaco 48.9%",
"Market: AS Monaco ~57.7% implied",
"Market Drift: AS Monaco odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours AS Monaco, but the market has moved away from AS Monaco.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.8,
"hero_label": "AS Monaco",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "AS Monaco odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on AS Monaco. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AS Monaco.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on AS Monaco. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AS Monaco."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices AS Monaco above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on AS Monaco (\u2191 +4.5%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.5 pp (at 48.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.5,
"max_prob_pct": 48.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "AS Monaco",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices AS Monaco higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.8,
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.92,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AS Monaco",
"market_prob_pct": 57.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.15,
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.65,
"edge_pp": 4.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Toulouse FC",
"market_prob_pct": 19.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AS Monaco.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AS Monaco (57.7%).",
"AS Monaco odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 6/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 AS Monaco, Market \u2192 AS Monaco, while AS Monaco odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.61,
"closing_odds": 1.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.61,
"entry_odds": 1.65,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on AS Monaco (4.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.65",
"1.60",
"1.55"
],
"display": "1.70 \u2192 1.54 \u2192 1.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"pick_team": "AS Monaco",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.55,
1.6,
1.65,
1.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,9.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,5.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.55,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/10 sportsbooks on AS Monaco",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "AS Monaco",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 1.55,
"summary": "Market moved away from AS Monaco while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "AS Monaco",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 1.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 1.55,
"pick_team": "AS Monaco",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "AS Monaco",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "toulouse",
"away_expected_goals": 0.11,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Toulouse FC",
"away_team_id": 96,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/96.webp",
"away_team_name": "Toulouse FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2IHvtYc7ByefGy",
"away_team_slug": "toulouse",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1552778,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": 0.68,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "AS Monaco",
"home_team_id": 91,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/91.webp",
"home_team_name": "AS Monaco",
"home_team_public_id": "3QkS1eKVucrHZn",
"home_team_slug": "monaco",
"ht.home_team_slug": "monaco",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_public_id": "4dWbucryPZLZtA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:45:00",
"public_id": "28UDEhE7MWiatl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "AS Monaco",
"venue_name": "Stade Louis II"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1861,
"best_odd": 5.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0046,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1905,
"draw": 0.2323,
"home": 0.5772
},
"model_prob": 0.2367,
"p_final": 0.1991
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1876,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0158,
"implied_prob": 0.2323,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1905,
"draw": 0.2323,
"home": 0.5772
},
"model_prob": 0.2737,
"p_final": 0.2401
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5212,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1905,
"draw": 0.2323,
"home": 0.5772
},
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"p_final": 0.5316
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.0,
"edge": 0.0367,
"ev": 0.1835,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"model_prob": 0.2367
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0298,
"ev": 0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2737
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.1164,
"ev": -0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.6061,
"model_prob": 0.4896
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3607,
"alpha_yes": 0.496,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.096,
"edge_yes": -0.096,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2114,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0032,
"ev_yes": -0.2046,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1466,
"implied_no": 0.413,
"implied_yes": 0.587,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3607,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4489
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.5851,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5384
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4489,
"p_final_yes": 0.5384,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4196,
"alpha_under": 0.3052,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.585,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.4,
"edge_over": -0.1815,
"edge_under": 0.1815,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.307,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1666,
"ev_under": 0.421,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0881,
"implied_over": 0.6015,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6023,
"implied_under": 0.3985,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3977,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4196,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0765,
"ev": -0.1666,
"implied_prob": 0.6023,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.5258
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3052,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.4534
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5258,
"p_final_under": 0.4534,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.36,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.421,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.421,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.421,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.421,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.421,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates AS Monaco at 49.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies AS Monaco as the value side (49.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "AS Monaco",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from AS Monaco, but the model still strongly favours AS Monaco.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1922,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.491,
"draw_prob": 0.2737,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4896,
"over_prob": 0.42,
"total_xg": 2.36,
"under_prob": 0.58,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "AS Monaco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3607,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0339,
"market_prob": 0.4149,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3607,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"p_final": 0.4489
},
"p_final": 0.4489,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0032,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1466,
"implied_prob": 0.5851,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"p_final": 0.5384
}
},
"edge": 0.096,
"ev": 0.2114,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3052,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0556,
"market_prob": 0.3977,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.58,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4196,
"best_odd": 1.585,
"edge": -0.0765,
"ev": -0.1666,
"implied_prob": 0.6023,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.5258
},
"p_final": 0.4534,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0881,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3052,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.4534
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1815,
"ev": 0.421,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552778,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.421,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2367,
"draw": 0.2737,
"home": 0.4896
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2114,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2114,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.509,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Toulouse FC",
"home": "AS Monaco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.214878,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.421,
"implied_prob": 0.3985,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.58,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5772,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4896,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1922,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552778,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:21:59.756292+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho AS Monaco & Toulouse FC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligue 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | FC Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 2 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | RC Lens | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Lorient | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | OGC Nice | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | +5.0 | 5 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | +4.2 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | +3.9 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | +2.9 | 11 |
| 5 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 6 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | 5 |
| 7 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 8 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Lorient | 5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 5 |
| 10 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 11 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | -1.3 | 7 |
| 13 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 11 |
| 14 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | -1.8 | 2 |
| 15 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -2.1 | 5 |
| 16 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 7 |
| 17 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 3.1 | 6.1 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Mans | 5 | 5.2 | 8.6 | -3.4 | 6 |
