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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Paris FC FC Lorient ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FC Lorient win · FC Lorient 1–0 Paris FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4373,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2953,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2674,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.4373,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4373,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.503,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.497,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2953,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2953,
"fair_odds_away": 2.29,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.29,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.39,
"fair_odds_home": 3.74,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.74,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.04,
"home_win_prob": 0.2674,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2674,
"over_25_prob": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.57
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Paris FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Paris FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Paris FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0389,
"edge_gap": 0.1418,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 43.7,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 26.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 2.0
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.0,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Paris FC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.1,
"market_odds": 2.0,
"model_odds": 2.29,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": -6.3,
"value_pct": -12.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 64.7,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.04,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FC Lorient or Draw",
"prob": 56.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FC Lorient or Paris FC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Paris FC",
"prob": 73.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Paris FC",
"pick_prob": 73.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 43.7,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 26.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Paris FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.4,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.4,
"under_prob": 57.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 4.1,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "FC Lorient Win",
"model_prob": 26.7,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Paris FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.6,
"draw": 28.0,
"home": 24.41
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:44:26",
"closing_source": "official",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-10 18:25:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FC Lorient",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.28,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.41,
"gap_pp": 2.36,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 26.76
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.0,
"gap_pp": 1.53,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.53
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.6,
"gap_pp": -3.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 43.71
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.41,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.28,
"implied_early_pct": 25.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.04,
"implied_early_pct": 27.95,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.23,
"implied_early_pct": 46.36,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.1,
"ev": -0.1424,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.7,
"market_prob": 0.1493,
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"model_prob": 0.128,
"model_prob_pct": 12.8,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.04,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0287,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.5132,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4582
},
"p_final": 0.5418,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0024,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0024,
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1271,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0887,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.9,
"text": "+8.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0887,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10229.83,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4652,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.503,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.4839
},
"p_final": 0.4839,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.006,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0321,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5448,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.5142
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0312,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1054,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.5,
"text": "-10.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0312,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"sort_key": 10028.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0215,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.1,
"text": "-2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Paris FC",
"sort_key": 1794.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"alert_team": "FC Lorient",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.87,
"hero_label": "Paris FC",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"market_team": "Paris FC",
"model_prob_pct": 43.7,
"model_team": "Paris FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0887,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0887,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris FC at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris FC as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.87,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.04,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"steam_team": "FC Lorient",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0887,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0887,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris FC at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris FC as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Lorient 1.04 xG vs Paris FC 1.36 \u2192 Paris FC 43.7%",
"Market: Paris FC ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Lorient odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Paris FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.33,
"fair_prob": 26.74,
"label": "FC Lorient",
"market_prob": 24.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob": 29.53,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob": 43.73,
"label": "Paris FC",
"market_prob": 47.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob": 43.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.84,
"fair_prob": 57.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.74,
"fair_prob": 49.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.74,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.73,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Paris FC",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "FC Lorient"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Paris FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 43.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Paris FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Lorient 1.04 xG vs Paris FC 1.36 \u2192 Paris FC 43.7%",
"Market: Paris FC ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Lorient odds \u2191 +16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Paris FC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.87,
"hero_label": "Paris FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FC Lorient odds lengthened \u2191 +16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC Lorient has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from FC Lorient \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, FC Lorient has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FC Lorient \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, FC Lorient has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/10) supports the current market view on FC Lorient."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.2 pp (at 43.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Paris FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.33,
"edge_pp": 2.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Lorient",
"market_prob_pct": 24.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.53,
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.53,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.87,
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.73,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Paris FC",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FC Lorient \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Paris FC (47.6%).",
"However, FC Lorient has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.7%, 10/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Paris FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/10 books lengthened FC Lorient together (16.7% drift, score 64) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.45",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.82 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 28m",
"pick_team": "FC Lorient",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.7,
3.9,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,4.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: FC Lorient odds \u2191 +16.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FC Lorient",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: FC Lorient odds \u2191 +16.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Lorient",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "FC Lorient",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "FC Lorient",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "paris-fc",
"away_expected_goals": 0.11,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Paris FC",
"away_team_id": 114,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/114.webp",
"away_team_name": "Paris FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0q5L7jRJsrG39f",
"away_team_slug": "paris-fc",
"country_code": "FR",
"country_display_name": "France",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_id": 56,
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1552777,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": 0.19,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "France",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Lorient",
"home_team_id": 97,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/97.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Lorient",
"home_team_public_id": "4lGfYk0K0t7ssc",
"home_team_slug": "lorient",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lorient",
"league_country": "France",
"league_country_display": "France",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_public_id": "4dWbucryPZLZtA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4BGLFSzwCCaYKt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "FC Lorient",
"venue_name": "Stade du Moustoir"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4238,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.476,
"draw": 0.28,
"home": 0.2441
},
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"p_final": 0.4595
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2931,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.28,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.476,
"draw": 0.28,
"home": 0.2441
},
"model_prob": 0.2953,
"p_final": 0.2845
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2894,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.2441,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.476,
"draw": 0.28,
"home": 0.2441
},
"model_prob": 0.2676,
"p_final": 0.2509
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.0629,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.4371
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": 0.0039,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2953
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": 0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2676
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4953,
"alpha_yes": 0.5448,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0374,
"edge_yes": -0.0374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0312,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0321,
"ev_yes": -0.1054,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1053,
"implied_no": 0.4656,
"implied_yes": 0.5344,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.4839
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5448,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.5142
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4839,
"p_final_yes": 0.5142,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5042,
"alpha_under": 0.5042,
"best_over_odd": 2.03,
"best_under_odd": 1.91,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.0584,
"edge_under": 0.0584,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1271,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1065,
"ev_under": 0.0887,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0024,
"implied_over": 0.4884,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4868,
"implied_under": 0.5116,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5132,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4582
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0024,
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5418
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4582,
"p_final_under": 0.5418,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0887,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0887,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0887,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0887,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0887,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Paris FC at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Paris FC as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Paris FC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Paris FC).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.497,
"draw_prob": 0.2953,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4371,
"over_prob": 0.43,
"total_xg": 2.4,
"under_prob": 0.57,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0165,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Paris FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4652,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.503,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4953,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0321,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.4839
},
"p_final": 0.4839,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0321,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5448,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.5142
}
},
"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0287,
"market_prob": 0.5132,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.4868,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4582
},
"p_final": 0.5418,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0024,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5042,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0024,
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5418
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0584,
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552777,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0887,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4371,
"draw": 0.2953,
"home": 0.2676
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paris FC",
"home": "FC Lorient"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031144,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0887,
"implied_prob": 0.5116,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.081,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4371,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552777,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:21:44.394086+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho FC Lorient & Paris FC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Ligue 1 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | FC Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 2 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | RC Lens | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Angers SCO | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Lorient | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | OGC Nice | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | +5.0 | 5 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | +4.2 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | +3.9 | 8 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | +2.9 | 11 |
| 5 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 6 | Toulouse FC | 5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | 5 |
| 7 | AS Monaco | 5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 8 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Lorient | 5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 5 |
| 10 | LOSC Lille | 5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 11 | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | -1.2 | 10 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | -1.3 | 7 |
| 13 | Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 11 |
| 14 | Le Havre AC | 5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | -1.8 | 2 |
| 15 | OGC Nice | 5 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -2.1 | 5 |
| 16 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 7 |
| 17 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 3.1 | 6.1 | -3.0 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Mans | 5 | 5.2 | 8.6 | -3.4 | 6 |
