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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Groningen Groningen ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.55
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Groningen win · Groningen 3–0 PEC Zwolle
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "b9ae8dba424018cd5cfdd537d85f2b8d5e6087f3cbfe4d9a02b2a26ec82b2a0e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2671,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2536,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4793,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.2671,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2671,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.373,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.627,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2536,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2536,
"fair_odds_away": 3.74,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.74,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.94,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.94,
"fair_odds_home": 2.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.09,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.65,
"home_win_prob": 0.4793,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4793,
"over_25_prob": 0.592,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.408
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Groningen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Groningen"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Groningen",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1433,
"edge_gap": 0.2112,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6219,
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.7,
"draw": 25.4,
"home": 47.9
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.55,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Groningen Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.61,
"market_odds": 1.55,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": -16.7,
"value_pct": -25.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 80.8,
"no_prob": 37.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 62.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 62.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.65,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Groningen or Draw",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Groningen or PEC Zwolle",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or PEC Zwolle",
"prob": 52.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Groningen or PEC Zwolle",
"pick_prob": 74.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.7,
"draw_pct": 25.4,
"home_pct": 47.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Groningen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.07,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 59.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.07,
"under_prob": 40.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 59.9,
"implied_prob": 16.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "PEC Zwolle Win",
"model_prob": 26.7,
"odds": 5.99
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.09,
"draw": 21.71,
"home": 62.19
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 18:00:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 17:31:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Groningen",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.19,
"gap_pp": -14.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 47.86
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.71,
"gap_pp": 3.68,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.09,
"gap_pp": 10.65,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.17,
"gap_pp": -8.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.83,
"gap_pp": 8.97,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 40.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.55,
"early": 1.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.19,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.44,
"early": 4.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.71,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.99,
"early": 5.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.09,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.41,
"early": 1.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.17,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.17,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.02,
"early": 3.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.83,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.1445,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.5,
"market_prob": 0.0952,
"market_prob_pct": 9.5,
"model_prob": 0.109,
"model_prob_pct": 10.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.65,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3608,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"edge": 0.0339,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"market_prob": 0.314,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.408,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.686,
"model_prob": 0.592,
"p_final": 0.6394
},
"p_final": 0.3479,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2036,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0262,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3608,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"p_final": 0.3479
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1653,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.5,
"text": "-16.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2648,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2648,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 59.2,
"sort_key": 10388.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 40.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1406,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.1,
"text": "-14.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0712,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.1,
"text": "+7.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Groningen",
"sort_key": 5256.96,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0033,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.365,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.373,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.415,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0645,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.373,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"p_final": 0.3683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0526,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0645,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5706,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.635,
"model_prob": 0.627,
"p_final": 0.6304
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.019,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0595,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.019,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 37.3,
"sort_key": 1795.25,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 62.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.26,
"hero_label": "Groningen",
"market_prob_pct": 62.2,
"market_team": "Groningen",
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"model_team": "Groningen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6022,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Groningen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Groningen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Groningen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Groningen \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552173 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1406,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.26,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.65,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.65,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.65 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +22%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6022,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Groningen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Groningen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Groningen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Groningen \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552173 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1406,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Groningen 1.65 xG vs PEC Zwolle 1.42 \u2192 Groningen 47.9%",
"Market: Groningen ~62.2% implied",
"Market Drift: PEC Zwolle odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Groningen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.26,
"fair_prob": 47.93,
"label": "Groningen",
"market_prob": 62.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 25.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.62,
"fair_prob": 26.71,
"label": "PEC Zwolle",
"market_prob": 16.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.19,
"fair_prob": 59.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.19,
"fair_prob": 40.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.01,
"fair_prob": 62.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob": 37.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.93,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Groningen",
"market_prob_pct": 62.19,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "PEC Zwolle"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Groningen\u0027s win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 47.9%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Groningen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Groningen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Groningen 1.65 xG vs PEC Zwolle 1.42 \u2192 Groningen 47.9%",
"Market: Groningen ~62.2% implied",
"Market Drift: PEC Zwolle odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Groningen with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.26,
"hero_label": "Groningen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "PEC Zwolle odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, PEC Zwolle has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Groningen than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from PEC Zwolle \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Groningen than the current fair estimate.",
"However, PEC Zwolle has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from PEC Zwolle \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Groningen more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, PEC Zwolle has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on PEC Zwolle."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.2 pp (at 47.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.2,
"max_prob_pct": 47.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Groningen",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Groningen higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.26,
"edge_pp": -14.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Groningen",
"market_prob_pct": 62.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.65,
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.62,
"edge_pp": 10.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "PEC Zwolle",
"market_prob_pct": 16.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from PEC Zwolle \u2014 odds lengthened by 25.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Groningen (62.2%).",
"However, PEC Zwolle has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Groningen \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.52,
"closing_odds": 1.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.52,
"entry_odds": 1.55,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +26.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 26.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened PEC Zwolle together (25.0% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.99",
"5.29",
"4.60"
],
"display": "5.99 \u2192 3.97 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 11m",
"pick_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.99"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.6,
5.99,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.6,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: PEC Zwolle odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: PEC Zwolle odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 4.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "PEC Zwolle",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 4.6,
"pick_team": "PEC Zwolle",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "PEC Zwolle",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pec-zwolle",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "PEC Zwolle",
"away_team_id": 193,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/193.webp",
"away_team_name": "PEC Zwolle",
"away_team_public_id": "0zfmnX66KB0DLm",
"away_team_slug": "pec-zwolle",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1552173,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Groningen",
"home_team_id": 202,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/202.webp",
"home_team_name": "Groningen",
"home_team_public_id": "2MjxILmHYR6XeD",
"home_team_slug": "groningen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "groningen",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_id": 88,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
"league_name": "Eredivisie",
"league_public_id": "5zMr11kQIxzcev",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3fTphSlCSguyOw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Groningen",
"venue_name": "Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.168,
"best_odd": 5.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": 0.0712,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1609,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.6219
},
"model_prob": 0.2675,
"p_final": 0.1788
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.189,
"best_odd": 4.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0051,
"implied_prob": 0.2171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1609,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.6219
},
"model_prob": 0.2539,
"p_final": 0.2241
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.471,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0675,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1609,
"draw": 0.2171,
"home": 0.6219
},
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.99,
"edge": 0.1005,
"ev": 0.6022,
"implied_prob": 0.1669,
"model_prob": 0.2675
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.1273,
"implied_prob": 0.2252,
"model_prob": 0.2539
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.1665,
"ev": -0.2581,
"implied_prob": 0.6452,
"model_prob": 0.4786
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.415,
"alpha_yes": 0.5706,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0101,
"edge_yes": -0.0101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.019,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0645,
"ev_yes": -0.0595,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0796,
"implied_no": 0.3629,
"implied_yes": 0.6371,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.415,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0645,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.373,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5706,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.635,
"model_prob": 0.627,
"p_final": 0.6304
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3683,
"p_final_yes": 0.6304,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.496,
"alpha_under": 0.3608,
"best_over_odd": 1.41,
"best_under_odd": 3.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.35,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.95,
"edge_over": -0.0919,
"edge_under": 0.0919,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1653,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1368,
"ev_under": 0.2648,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0262,
"implied_over": 0.6839,
"implied_over_mf": 0.686,
"implied_under": 0.3161,
"implied_under_mf": 0.314,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.686,
"model_prob": 0.592,
"p_final": 0.6394
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3608,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"p_final": 0.3479
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6394,
"p_final_under": 0.3479,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6022,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2648,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2648,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6022,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Groningen at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Groningen as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Groningen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Groningen \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +60% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1552173 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Groningen).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +60% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1406,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 22.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.627,
"draw_prob": 0.2539,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4786,
"over_prob": 0.592,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"under_prob": 0.408,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0712,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2675,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "PEC Zwolle",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0675,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Groningen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.415,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0033,
"market_prob": 0.365,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.373,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.415,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0645,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.373,
"p_final": 0.3683
},
"p_final": 0.3683,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0645,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5706,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.635,
"model_prob": 0.627,
"p_final": 0.6304
}
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.3629,
"model_prob": 0.373,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3608,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"edge": 0.0339,
"market_prob": 0.314,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.408,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.496,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0467,
"ev": -0.1368,
"implied_prob": 0.686,
"model_prob": 0.592,
"p_final": 0.6394
},
"p_final": 0.3479,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0262,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3608,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.314,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"p_final": 0.3479
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0919,
"ev": 0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.3161,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1552173,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2648,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2675,
"draw": 0.2539,
"home": 0.4786
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "PEC Zwolle",
"home": "Groningen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.102636,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.3161,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.408,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1406,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.55,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4786,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6451612903225806,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1552173,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T19:28:06.484633+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Groningen & PEC Zwolle!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Eredivisie — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 7 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 3 | Ajax | 7 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Twente | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Telstar | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 12.0 | 2.7 | +9.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | +7.5 | 17 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 12.4 | 5.5 | +6.9 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | +4.1 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 5.7 | 3.1 | +2.6 | 14 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.0 | 8 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 9 | Telstar | 7 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 | 5 |
| 10 | Groningen | 7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | -1.3 | 11 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 7 | 5.3 | 7.3 | -2.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Willem II | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 5.8 | 8.0 | -2.2 | 5 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 4.1 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 5.3 | 8.2 | -2.9 | 5 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 7 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -5.4 | 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 7 | 3.2 | 9.3 | -6.1 | 2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 3.7 | 10.7 | -7.0 | 13 |
