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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 NAC Breda Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Vitesse 2–2 NAC Breda
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.98,
"away_win_prob": 0.4187,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.27,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.73,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2339,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.39,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.28,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.8,
"home_win_prob": 0.3475,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.728,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.272
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Vitesse or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Vitesse"
},
"away_xg": 1.98,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "NAC Breda",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0303,
"edge_gap": 0.0712,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.449,
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.9,
"draw": 23.4,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.12
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.12,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "NAC Breda Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.23,
"market_odds": 2.12,
"model_odds": 2.39,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -5.3,
"value_pct": -11.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 86.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 83.5,
"no_prob": 27.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.98,
"home_expected": 1.8,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vitesse or Draw",
"prob": 58.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Vitesse or NAC Breda",
"prob": 76.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or NAC Breda",
"prob": 65.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vitesse or NAC Breda",
"pick_prob": 76.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.9,
"draw_pct": 23.4,
"home_pct": 34.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "NAC Breda"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.78,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 72.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 72.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.78,
"under_prob": 27.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.3,
"implied_prob": 34.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Vitesse Win",
"model_prob": 34.8,
"odds": 2.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "NAC Breda",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.9,
"draw": 22.72,
"home": 32.38
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:20:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vitesse",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.38,
"gap_pp": 2.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.72,
"gap_pp": 0.66,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.9,
"gap_pp": -3.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.57,
"gap_pp": 9.23,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 72.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.43,
"gap_pp": -9.23,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.38,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.19,
"early": 4.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.72,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.57,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.6,
"early": 2.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.43,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.7,
"ev": -0.3115,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.8,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0278,
"edge_pp": 2.8,
"market_prob": 0.6454,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.6454,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"p_final": 0.6733
},
"p_final": 0.6733,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0338,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2453,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.272,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0847,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2166,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0847,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 72.8,
"sort_key": 10226.23,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3425,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0252,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.6564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2491,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.3252
},
"p_final": 0.6816,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.022,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0457,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3425,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.6564,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6816
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2224,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.2,
"text": "-22.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0512,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0512,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.0,
"sort_key": 10046.08,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0757,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0178,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1124,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "NAC Breda",
"sort_key": 1795.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "Vitesse",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.03,
"hero_label": "NAC Breda",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"market_team": "NAC Breda",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "NAC Breda",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0847,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0847,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NAC Breda at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NAC Breda as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NAC Breda",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1124,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.03,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.98,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 47.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.8,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.98,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.80 \u00b7 Away xG 1.98 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +47%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "Vitesse",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0847,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0847,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NAC Breda at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NAC Breda as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NAC Breda",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1124,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vitesse 1.80 xG vs NAC Breda 1.98 \u2192 NAC Breda 41.9%",
"Market: NAC Breda ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Vitesse odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean NAC Breda with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob": 34.75,
"label": "Vitesse",
"market_prob": 32.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.67,
"fair_prob": 23.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.03,
"fair_prob": 41.87,
"label": "NAC Breda",
"market_prob": 44.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.17,
"fair_prob": 72.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob": 27.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.32,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.32,
"fair_prob": 27.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.87,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "NAC Breda",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Vitesse"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "NAC Breda",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "NAC Breda \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vitesse 1.80 xG vs NAC Breda 1.98 \u2192 NAC Breda 41.9%",
"Market: NAC Breda ~44.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Vitesse odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean NAC Breda with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.03,
"hero_label": "NAC Breda",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Vitesse odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Vitesse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Vitesse \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Vitesse has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Vitesse \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Vitesse has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Vitesse."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.1 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.1,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "NAC Breda",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.37,
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vitesse",
"market_prob_pct": 32.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.67,
"edge_pp": 0.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.72,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.03,
"edge_pp": -3.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.87,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "NAC Breda",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Vitesse \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers NAC Breda (44.9%).",
"However, Vitesse has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"NAC Breda \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h 20m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Vitesse (14.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.00",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.59 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h 20m",
"pick_team": "Vitesse",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
2.94,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,11.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Vitesse",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Vitesse",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Vitesse",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Vitesse",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Vitesse",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nac-breda",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "NAC Breda",
"away_team_id": 203,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/203.webp",
"away_team_name": "NAC Breda",
"away_team_public_id": "4cFffu4TD55TLN",
"away_team_slug": "nac-breda",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1551820,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Vitesse",
"home_team_id": 200,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/200.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vitesse",
"home_team_public_id": "23zuDckwqmWkgi",
"home_team_slug": "vitesse",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vitesse",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_id": 89,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/89.webp",
"league_name": "Eerste Divisie",
"league_public_id": "3fIkfoWJytykc5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:30:00",
"public_id": "3ER4gYfX2ZFpUh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Arnhem",
"venue_name": "GelreDome"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4295,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.449,
"draw": 0.2272,
"home": 0.3238
},
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"p_final": 0.436
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"best_odd": 4.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0013,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.449,
"draw": 0.2272,
"home": 0.3238
},
"model_prob": 0.2338,
"p_final": 0.2285
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.434,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0178,
"implied_prob": 0.3238,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.449,
"draw": 0.2272,
"home": 0.3238
},
"model_prob": 0.3475,
"p_final": 0.3341
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.4187
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.19,
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.2387,
"model_prob": 0.2338
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": 0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3475
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2491,
"alpha_yes": 0.3425,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0732,
"edge_yes": 0.0732,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2224,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.13,
"ev_yes": 0.0512,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0457,
"implied_no": 0.3432,
"implied_yes": 0.6568,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2491,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.3252
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3425,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.6564,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6816
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3252,
"p_final_yes": 0.6816,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3373,
"alpha_under": 0.2453,
"best_over_odd": 1.49,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.585,
"edge_over": 0.0817,
"edge_under": -0.0817,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0847,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"ev_under": -0.2166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1358,
"implied_over": 0.6463,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6454,
"implied_under": 0.3537,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3546,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.6454,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"p_final": 0.6733
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2453,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.272,
"p_final": 0.3343
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6733,
"p_final_under": 0.3343,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.78,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0847,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0847,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0847,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0847,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0847,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NAC Breda at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NAC Breda as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NAC Breda",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (NAC Breda).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1124,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.73,
"draw_prob": 0.2338,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4187,
"over_prob": 0.728,
"total_xg": 3.78,
"under_prob": 0.272,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.013,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "NAC Breda"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3425,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0252,
"market_prob": 0.6564,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2491,
"best_odd": 2.675,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.3436,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.3252
},
"p_final": 0.6816,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0457,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3425,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.6564,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6816
}
},
"edge": 0.0732,
"ev": 0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0278,
"market_prob": 0.6454,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3373,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.6454,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"p_final": 0.6733
},
"p_final": 0.6733,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2453,
"best_odd": 2.585,
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.272,
"p_final": 0.3343
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0817,
"ev": 0.0847,
"implied_prob": 0.6463,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1551820,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0847,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4187,
"draw": 0.2338,
"home": 0.3475
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "NAC Breda",
"home": "Vitesse"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077077,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0847,
"implied_prob": 0.6463,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0757,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.449,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4187,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1124,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551820,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:29:07.750784+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Vitesse & NAC Breda!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Eerste Divisie — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Roda JC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | FC OSS | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 19 | FC Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 10 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Volendam | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 | Emmen | 10 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 | Jong AZ | 10 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 10 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | Waalwijk | 10 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Vitesse | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | FC OSS | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Jong PSV | 10 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Den Bosch | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 16 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 10 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | FC Dordrecht | 10 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
| 20 | Roda JC | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 12.6 | 6.8 | +5.8 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Volendam | 10 | 10.7 | 6.4 | +4.3 | 15 |
| 3 | NAC Breda | 10 | 10.5 | 7.1 | +3.4 | 17 |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 10 | 10.0 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 22 |
| 5 | Emmen | 10 | 10.4 | 7.2 | +3.2 | 19 |
| 6 | Den Bosch | 10 | 10.5 | 7.8 | +2.7 | 11 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 10 | 9.9 | 7.3 | +2.6 | 13 |
| 8 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 7.0 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 16 |
| 9 | Vitesse | 10 | 9.3 | 7.8 | +1.5 | 14 |
| 10 | Roda JC | 10 | 9.7 | 8.5 | +1.2 | 16 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 7.7 | 6.6 | +1.1 | 13 |
| 12 | FC OSS | 10 | 8.1 | 8.7 | -0.6 | 12 |
| 13 | Waalwijk | 10 | 5.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | 14 |
| 14 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 8.1 | 10.3 | -2.2 | 21 |
| 15 | De Graafschap | 10 | 7.0 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 11 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 9.8 | 13.2 | -3.4 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 7.0 | 11.2 | -4.2 | 7 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 4.1 | 9.0 | -4.9 | 9 |
| 19 | FC Dordrecht | 10 | 6.0 | 11.9 | -5.9 | 8 |
| 20 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 4.4 | 11.0 | -6.6 | 11 |
