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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Botev Plovdiv win · Septemvri Sofia 0–3 Botev Plovdiv
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4596,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.564,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.436,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3163,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.16,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.46,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.85,
"home_win_prob": 0.2241,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.369,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.631
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Botev Plovdiv",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Botev Plovdiv"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0387,
"edge_gap": 0.1423,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4977,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 45.9,
"draw": 31.7,
"home": 22.4
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.91
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Botev Plovdiv Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.01,
"market_odds": 1.91,
"model_odds": 2.18,
"overround": 5.2,
"prob_edge": -6.5,
"value_pct": -12.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 57.3,
"no_prob": 56.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 56.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 43.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 0.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 15.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Septemvri Sofia or Draw",
"prob": 54.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Septemvri Sofia or Botev Plovdiv",
"prob": 68.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Botev Plovdiv",
"prob": 77.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Botev Plovdiv",
"pick_prob": 77.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.0,
"draw_pct": 31.6,
"home_pct": 22.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Botev Plovdiv"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.17,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 36.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.17,
"under_prob": 63.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.6,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 31.6,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Botev Plovdiv",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 49.77,
"draw": 27.16,
"home": 23.07
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:31:38",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:08:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.07,
"gap_pp": -0.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 22.44
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.16,
"gap_pp": 4.51,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.77,
"gap_pp": -3.87,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 45.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.75,
"gap_pp": -9.85,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 36.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.25,
"gap_pp": 9.85,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 63.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.12,
"early": 4.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.07,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.75,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.25,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.8,
"ev": 0.057,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.151,
"model_prob_pct": 15.1,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 15.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 15.1
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.85,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3217,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0352,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"market_prob": 0.5214,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2925,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": -0.032,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4786,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4465
},
"p_final": 0.5567,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1263,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0063,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3217,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.5214,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5567
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2436,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.4,
"text": "-24.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.18,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.0,
"text": "+18.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.18,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 36.9,
"sort_key": 10312.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 63.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0243,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5095
},
"p_final": 0.5095,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0269,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4905
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0772,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.7,
"text": "+7.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2021,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.2,
"text": "-20.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0772,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 56.4,
"sort_key": 10069.48,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 43.6
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0912,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.1,
"text": "-9.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0053,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.459,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1233,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"sort_key": 1798.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 825.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 15.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.47,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"market_team": "Botev Plovdiv",
"model_prob_pct": 46.0,
"model_team": "Botev Plovdiv",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.18,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.18,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 45.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (45.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0912,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1233,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.47,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.85,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.18,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.18,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 45.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (45.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0912,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1233,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Septemvri Sofia 0.85 xG vs Botev Plovdiv 1.32 \u2192 Botev Plovdiv 46.0%",
"Market: Botev Plovdiv ~49.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Septemvri Sofia odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Botev Plovdiv projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.66,
"fair_prob": 22.41,
"label": "Septemvri Sofia",
"market_prob": 23.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.47,
"fair_prob": 31.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob": 45.96,
"label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.89,
"fair_prob": 36.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.89,
"fair_prob": 63.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.63,
"fair_prob": 43.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.63,
"fair_prob": 56.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.63,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.16,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Septemvri Sofia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 46.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Botev Plovdiv \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Septemvri Sofia 0.85 xG vs Botev Plovdiv 1.32 \u2192 Botev Plovdiv 46.0%",
"Market: Botev Plovdiv ~49.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Septemvri Sofia odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Botev Plovdiv projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.47,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Septemvri Sofia odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Septemvri Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Septemvri Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Septemvri Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Septemvri Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Septemvri Sofia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.3 pp (at 46.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.3,
"max_prob_pct": 46.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.66,
"edge_pp": -0.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Septemvri Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.47,
"edge_pp": 4.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.81,
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"market_prob_pct": 49.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Septemvri Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Botev Plovdiv (49.8%).",
"Septemvri Sofia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.7%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Botev Plovdiv \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.57,
"closing_odds": 3.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.57,
"entry_odds": 3.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Septemvri Sofia (swing 4.67 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.00) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.12",
"3.94",
"3.75"
],
"display": "4.67 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 112h 53m",
"pick_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.67"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
4.12,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Septemvri Sofia",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Septemvri Sofia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "botev-plovdiv",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Botev Plovdiv",
"away_team_id": 634,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/634.webp",
"away_team_name": "Botev Plovdiv",
"away_team_public_id": "0A2Qv4YhvIqGH2",
"away_team_slug": "botev-plovdiv",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1551114,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Septemvri Sofia",
"home_team_id": 856,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/856.webp",
"home_team_name": "Septemvri Sofia",
"home_team_public_id": "3sLSeoj5KhuMNd",
"home_team_slug": "septemvri-sofia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "septemvri-sofia",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Bulgaria",
"league_id": 172,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/172.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i V\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch Qu\u1ed1c gia Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "4cmwkammgUOIQT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "5IetvDKJGLPTDB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sofia",
"venue_name": "Dragalevtsi Stadium,"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5652,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4977,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4758
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2797,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0053,
"implied_prob": 0.2716,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4977,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.3166,
"p_final": 0.2842
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 4.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4977,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.2244,
"p_final": 0.2295
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0646,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.459
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0309,
"ev": 0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3166
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.12,
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"model_prob": 0.2244
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3086,
"alpha_yes": 0.3086,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0763,
"edge_yes": -0.0763,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0772,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0269,
"ev_yes": -0.2021,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"implied_no": 0.4877,
"implied_yes": 0.5123,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5095
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4905
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5095,
"p_final_yes": 0.4905,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2925,
"alpha_under": 0.3217,
"best_over_odd": 2.05,
"best_under_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.945,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.785,
"edge_over": -0.1089,
"edge_under": 0.1089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2436,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1315,
"ev_under": 0.18,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0063,
"implied_over": 0.4779,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4786,
"implied_under": 0.5221,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5214,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2925,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": -0.032,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4786,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4465
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3217,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.5214,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5567
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4465,
"p_final_under": 0.5567,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.18,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.18,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.18,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.18,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.18,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 45.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (45.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Plovdiv).",
"Decision strength: 8.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0912,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1233,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.436,
"draw_prob": 0.3166,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.459,
"over_prob": 0.369,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"under_prob": 0.631,
"xg_diff": 0.47
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Botev Plovdiv"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0243,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"p_final": 0.5095
},
"p_final": 0.5095,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0269,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"p_final": 0.4905
}
},
"edge": 0.0763,
"ev": 0.0772,
"implied_prob": 0.4877,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3217,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0352,
"market_prob": 0.5214,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2925,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": -0.032,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4786,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"p_final": 0.4465
},
"p_final": 0.5567,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0063,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3217,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.5214,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"p_final": 0.5567
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1089,
"ev": 0.18,
"implied_prob": 0.5221,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551114,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.18,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.459,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.2244
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Botev Plovdiv",
"home": "Septemvri Sofia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.11358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.18,
"implied_prob": 0.5221,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.631,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0912,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1233,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551114,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:31:40.323229+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Septemvri Sofia & Botev Plovdiv!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Vô địch Quốc gia Bulgaria — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
