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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Club America Club America ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Club America win · Necaxa 2–4 Club America
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "51ad7aed89482fa6e428f49111b08d6ffe70aa6f03d979609b78a289651a16a5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.4437,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.554,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.446,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3177,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.25,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.15,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.19,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.89,
"home_win_prob": 0.2386,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.375,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.625
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Club America",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Club America"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Club America",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0416,
"edge_gap": 0.1269,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4858,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 44.4,
"draw": 31.7,
"home": 23.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.99
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.99,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Club America Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.06,
"market_odds": 1.99,
"model_odds": 2.25,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": -5.8,
"value_pct": -11.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 58.9,
"no_prob": 55.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 55.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 44.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 0.89,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Necaxa or Draw",
"prob": 55.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Necaxa or Club America",
"prob": 68.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Club America",
"prob": 76.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Club America",
"pick_prob": 76.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 44.4,
"draw_pct": 31.8,
"home_pct": 23.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Club America"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.19,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 37.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.19,
"under_prob": 62.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.3,
"implied_prob": 26.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 31.8,
"odds": 3.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Club America",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.58,
"draw": 25.99,
"home": 25.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 03:09:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 02:39:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Necaxa",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.44,
"gap_pp": -1.59,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 23.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.99,
"gap_pp": 5.74,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.58,
"gap_pp": -4.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 44.42
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.23,
"gap_pp": -18.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 37.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.77,
"gap_pp": 18.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 62.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.8,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.44,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.72,
"early": 3.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.99,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 14.0,
"edge": 4.0,
"ev": 56.7,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 11.2
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.0,
"ev": 0.3775,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 9.5,
"market_prob": 0.1053,
"market_prob_pct": 10.5,
"model_prob": 0.145,
"model_prob_pct": 14.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.89,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.402,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0726,
"edge_pp": 7.3,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4421,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0798,
"ev": -0.2008,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.4757
},
"p_final": 0.517,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3125,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0857,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.402,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0726,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.517
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3438,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.375,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 37.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.375,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 37.5,
"sort_key": 10487.5,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 62.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3311,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0467,
"edge_pp": 4.7,
"market_prob": 0.4128,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3311,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"model_prob": 0.554,
"p_final": 0.4596
},
"p_final": 0.4596,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.241,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0295,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4552,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.1764,
"implied_prob": 0.5872,
"model_prob": 0.446,
"p_final": 0.5229
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2742,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 27.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2864,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.6,
"text": "-28.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2742,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 55.4,
"sort_key": 10246.78,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 44.6
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0799,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0252,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Club America",
"sort_key": 5220.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 823.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 14.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Club America",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.78,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"market_team": "Club America",
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"model_team": "Club America",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.375,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club America at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club America as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club America",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +37.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.78,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.89,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.89 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Club America",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.375,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club America at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club America as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club America",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +37.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Necaxa 0.89 xG vs Club America 1.30 \u2192 Club America 44.4%",
"Market: Club America ~48.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Club America odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Club America, but the market has moved away from Club America.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.58,
"fair_prob": 23.86,
"label": "Necaxa",
"market_prob": 25.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob": 31.77,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob": 44.37,
"label": "Club America",
"market_prob": 48.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.18,
"fair_prob": 37.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.18,
"fair_prob": 62.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.05,
"fair_prob": 44.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.05,
"fair_prob": 55.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.77,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.99,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Club America"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 31.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Club America",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 44.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Necaxa 0.89 xG vs Club America 1.30 \u2192 Club America 44.4%",
"Market: Club America ~48.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Club America odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Club America, but the market has moved away from Club America.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.78,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Club America odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Club America has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Club America \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Club America has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Club America \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Club America has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Club America."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 44.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 44.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.8,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.58,
"edge_pp": -1.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Necaxa",
"market_prob_pct": 25.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.78,
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.21,
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Club America",
"market_prob_pct": 48.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Club America \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Club America (48.6%).",
"Club America odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Club America, Market \u2192 Club America, while Club America odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.88,
"closing_odds": 3.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.88,
"entry_odds": 3.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Club America (8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.99",
"1.90",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.07 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 23m",
"pick_team": "Club America",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.07"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.99,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Club America",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Club America while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Club America",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Club America",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Club America",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "club-america",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Club America",
"away_team_id": 2287,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2287.webp",
"away_team_name": "Club America",
"away_team_public_id": "3cFrpC0OSlKOSV",
"away_team_slug": "club-america",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550983,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Necaxa",
"home_team_id": 2288,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2288.webp",
"home_team_name": "Necaxa",
"home_team_public_id": "0Inlq9kQc69ViF",
"home_team_slug": "necaxa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "necaxa",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 03:10:00",
"public_id": "2IMLSEZRs0BRNz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Aguascalientes",
"venue_name": "Estadio Victoria"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5626,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4858,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.2544
},
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"p_final": 0.4624
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2742,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": 0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4858,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.2544
},
"model_prob": 0.3173,
"p_final": 0.2756
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0046,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.2544,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4858,
"draw": 0.2599,
"home": 0.2544
},
"model_prob": 0.2385,
"p_final": 0.2497
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.0583,
"ev": -0.1161,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.4442
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.72,
"edge": 0.0485,
"ev": 0.1803,
"implied_prob": 0.2688,
"model_prob": 0.3173
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2385
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3311,
"alpha_yes": 0.4552,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1405,
"edge_yes": -0.1405,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2742,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0295,
"ev_yes": -0.2864,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1764,
"implied_no": 0.4135,
"implied_yes": 0.5865,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3311,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"model_prob": 0.554,
"p_final": 0.4596
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4552,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.1764,
"implied_prob": 0.5872,
"model_prob": 0.446,
"p_final": 0.5229
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4596,
"p_final_yes": 0.5229,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4421,
"alpha_under": 0.402,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.1818,
"edge_under": 0.1818,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3438,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.2008,
"ev_under": 0.375,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0857,
"implied_over": 0.5568,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5556,
"implied_under": 0.4432,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4444,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4421,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0798,
"ev": -0.2008,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.4757
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.402,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0726,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.517
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4757,
"p_final_under": 0.517,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.375,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.375,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.375,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club America at 44.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club America as the value side (44.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club America",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +37.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +37.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +37.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+37.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Club America, but the model still strongly favours Club America.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.41"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.41
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.446,
"draw_prob": 0.3173,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4442,
"over_prob": 0.375,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"under_prob": 0.625,
"xg_diff": 0.41
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3173,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Club America"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3311,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0467,
"market_prob": 0.4128,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.554,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3311,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.4128,
"model_prob": 0.554,
"p_final": 0.4596
},
"p_final": 0.4596,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0295,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4552,
"best_odd": 1.575,
"edge": -0.0643,
"ev": -0.1764,
"implied_prob": 0.5872,
"model_prob": 0.446,
"p_final": 0.5229
}
},
"edge": 0.1405,
"ev": 0.2742,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"model_prob": 0.554,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.402,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0726,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4421,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0798,
"ev": -0.2008,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.375,
"p_final": 0.4757
},
"p_final": 0.517,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0857,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.402,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0726,
"ev": 0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"p_final": 0.517
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1818,
"ev": 0.375,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550983,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.375,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4442,
"draw": 0.3173,
"home": 0.2385
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2742,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.554,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2742,
"implied_prob": 0.4135,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.554,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Club America",
"home": "Necaxa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.234375,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.375,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.625,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0799,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4442,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.116,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550983,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T03:09:07.500936+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Necaxa & Club America!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga MX — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Leon | 10 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 9.5 | 4.4 | +5.1 | 14 |
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 10.9 | 6.5 | +4.4 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 16 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 11.5 | 8.6 | +2.9 | 10 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 10.2 | 7.4 | +2.8 | 13 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 10.2 | 7.5 | +2.7 | 18 |
| 7 | Toluca | 10 | 10.2 | 7.9 | +2.3 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 9 | 10.2 | 9.4 | +0.8 | 17 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 10 | 6.8 | 6.1 | +0.7 | 8 |
| 10 | Leon | 10 | 10.6 | 10.1 | +0.5 | 17 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10.1 | 9.7 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 6.4 | 8.0 | -1.6 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 10 | 7.4 | 9.2 | -1.8 | 12 |
| 14 | Puebla | 10 | 8.0 | 10.8 | -2.8 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlas | 10 | 8.4 | 11.6 | -3.2 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 7.8 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 12 |
| 17 | Atlante FC | 10 | 6.9 | 11.8 | -4.9 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 5.8 | 14.6 | -8.8 | 3 |
