Paysandu vs Plaza Colonia Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3659,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2964,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.73,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.96,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3377,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Plaza Colonia and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Plaza Colonia"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.33,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Plaza Colonia",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1242,
        "edge_gap": 0.0284,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4902,
        "model_prob": 0.366,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 36.6,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 33.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.87
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.87,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Plaza Colonia Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.04,
        "market_odds": 1.87,
        "model_odds": 2.73,
        "overround": 9.1,
        "prob_edge": -16.8,
        "value_pct": -31.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 73.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 71.9,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.33,
        "home_expected": 1.27,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Paysandu or Draw",
            "prob": 63.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Paysandu or Plaza Colonia",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Plaza Colonia",
            "prob": 66.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Paysandu or Plaza Colonia",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 36.6,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 33.8,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Plaza Colonia"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "edge": 46.0,
        "implied_prob": 23.1,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Paysandu Win",
        "model_prob": 33.8,
        "odds": 4.32
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Plaza Colonia",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Paysandu",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.22,
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          "model_pct": 33.75
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
          "gap_pp": -0.11,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.65
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
          "gap_pp": -12.42,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 36.6
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.97,
          "gap_pp": 10.23,
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          "model_pct": 48.2
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 62.03,
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 4.32,
          "early": 4.32,
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          "implied_early_pct": 29.76,
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        {
          "closing": 1.87,
          "early": 1.87,
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          "closing": 2.45,
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          "closing": 1.5,
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          "implied_early_pct": 62.03,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.27,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2037,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.4,
          "text": "-20.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1826,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 18.3,
          "text": "+18.3%"
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        "featured": true,
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        "sort_key": 10314.34,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
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        "ev_over": 0.205,
        "ev_over_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 20.5,
          "text": "+20.5%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1971,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -19.7,
          "text": "-19.7%"
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          "raw_pct": 0.5,
          "text": "+0.5%"
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        "model_prob": 0.366,
        "side_label": "Plaza Colonia",
        "sort_key": 5203.68,
        "tier": "lean"
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +17.1%",
        "alert_team": "Paysandu",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 12.6,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 12.55,
        "hero_label": "Paysandu",
        "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
        "market_team": "Plaza Colonia",
        "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
        "model_team": "Plaza Colonia",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.55,
          "fair_prob": 33.77,
          "label": "Paysandu",
          "market_prob": 21.22,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.12,
          "fair_prob": 29.64,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.76,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.43,
          "fair_prob": 36.59,
          "label": "Plaza Colonia",
          "market_prob": 49.02,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.38,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 38.82,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.38,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 61.18,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.15,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 44.35,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.15,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 55.65,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 12.55,
        "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Paysandu",
        "market_prob_pct": 21.22,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Paysandu"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 12.55,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Plaza Colonia",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Plaza Colonia, but the market prices them higher (49.0% vs model 36.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 12.55,
        "hero_label": "Paysandu",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Paysandu odds lengthened \u2191 +17.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Paysandu.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Paysandu.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Paysandu.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Paysandu."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Paysandu more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Paysandu (\u2191 +17.1%) aligns with the pricing gap."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 12.55,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.55,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Paysandu",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.22,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.12,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.76,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -12.43,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Plaza Colonia",
            "market_prob_pct": 49.02,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Paysandu.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Plaza Colonia (49.0%).",
          "However, Paysandu has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +17.1%, 8/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Plaza Colonia, Market \u2192 Plaza Colonia, Recent sharp money \u2192 Paysandu.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 23.15,
        "closing_odds": 4.32,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 23.15,
        "entry_odds": 4.32,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 17.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Paysandu (17.1%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.33 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 4.10",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Paysandu",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.33"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.40"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.10"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Paysandu \u2191 +17.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Paysandu",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Paysandu \u2191 +17.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "pick_team": "Paysandu",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_team_name": "Paysandu",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
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          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2355,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2355.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Plaza Colonia",
      "country_code": "UY",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
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      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Uruguay",
      "home_team_id": 19410,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19410.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Paysandu",
      "league_country": "Uruguay",
      "league_id": 269,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/269.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "edge_yes": 0.1015,
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          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "edge_under": -0.0938,
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          "implied_over": 0.3882,
          "implied_under": 0.6118,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0606,
          "ev": -0.1967,
          "implied_prob": 0.4902,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Plaza Colonia"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
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        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3882,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1550643,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.205,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.3375
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
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        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Plaza Colonia",
        "home": "Paysandu"
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T20:59:14.276245+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}