Nautico Hacoaj vs SAT Moreno Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
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      "fair_odds_away": 2.88,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.81,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3564,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Nautico Hacoaj or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Nautico Hacoaj"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.29,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0206,
        "edge_gap": 0.0087,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3353,
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.7,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 35.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.98
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 2.7
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 2.66
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
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          "odd": 2.66
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          "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
          "odd": 2.5
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        {
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          "odd": 2.45
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      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.98,
        "bookmaker_id": 4,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Nautico Hacoaj Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.98,
        "market_odds": 2.66,
        "model_odds": 2.81,
        "overround": 12.2,
        "prob_edge": 2.0,
        "value_pct": 6.0,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 2,
        "away_score_rate": 72.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
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        "home_score_rate": 73.0,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.31,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 9.6
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            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 8.2
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Nautico Hacoaj or Draw",
            "prob": 65.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Nautico Hacoaj or SAT Moreno",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or SAT Moreno",
            "prob": 64.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Nautico Hacoaj or SAT Moreno",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.7,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 35.6,
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        "lean_label": "Nautico Hacoaj"
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        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
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        "under_prob": 51.8
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        "implied_prob": 31.8,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "SAT Moreno Win",
        "model_prob": 34.7,
        "odds": 3.14
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    },
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
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        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.31,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": -20.4,
          "text": "-20.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.0464,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 4.6,
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          "raw_pct": -6.7,
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        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.9,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 33.4,
        "market_team": "Draw",
        "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
        "model_team": "Nautico Hacoaj",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "label": "Draw",
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 3.64,
          "fair_prob": 34.7,
          "label": "SAT Moreno",
          "market_prob": 31.06,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 8.21,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
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          "market_prob": 39.99,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -8.21,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
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          "market_prob": 60.01,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 47.63,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.87,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 52.37,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      "edge_snapshot": {
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        "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 35.54,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj"
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      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
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          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.89,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 33.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Nautico Hacoaj, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and SAT Moreno remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Nautico Hacoaj has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Nautico Hacoaj has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Nautico Hacoaj has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Nautico Hacoaj."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.89,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.24,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.4,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.89,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.54,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "SAT Moreno",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.06,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Draw (33.4%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nautico Hacoaj, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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      "lifecycle": {
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        "closing_odds": null,
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        "clv_pp": null,
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        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "market_monitoring",
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        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
        "entry_implied_pct": 40.0,
        "entry_odds": 2.5,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
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            "id": "closing_recorded",
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        "breadth_display": "6/6",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.45,
        "pick_team": "Nautico Hacoaj",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 23106,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23106.webp",
      "away_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1549930,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 23104,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23104.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 1067,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
      "league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
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          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4253,
            "best_odd": 2.86,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0156,
            "ev": -0.067,
            "implied_prob": 0.3106,
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3262
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4105,
            "best_odd": 2.5,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.024,
            "ev": -0.1717,
            "implied_prob": 0.3554,
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.3313
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4352,
            "best_odd": 2.66,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0095,
            "ev": -0.0862,
            "implied_prob": 0.334,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.3435
          }
        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.92,
          "edge_no": -0.0687,
          "edge_yes": 0.0687,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2037,
          "ev_yes": 0.0464,
          "implied_no": 0.5237,
          "implied_yes": 0.4763,
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.39,
          "best_under_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_over": 0.0821,
          "edge_under": -0.0821,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.152,
          "ev_under": -0.1349,
          "implied_over": 0.3999,
          "implied_under": 0.6001,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.152,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0095,
          "ev": -0.0862,
          "implied_prob": 0.334,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Nautico Hacoaj"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0687,
          "ev": 0.0464,
          "implied_prob": 0.4763,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0821,
          "ev": 0.152,
          "implied_prob": 0.3999,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1549930,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.152,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3473,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3559
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "SAT Moreno",
        "home": "Nautico Hacoaj"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.051285,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.152,
        "implied_prob": 0.3999,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1549930,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:53:37.318492+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}