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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Trên / Dưới 2.5 Trên 2.5 Trên 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atletico Pilar Atletico Pilar ✔ Correct
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b68a71a904cc607a8991ae1faaa3f09592f6a48cc3cfdcc0d6cc58e587e05e24",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Juventud de Bernal",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Juventud de Bernal"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Atletico Pilar",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0016,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3644,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.47
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.47
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.42
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.5,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Atletico Pilar Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.74,
"market_odds": 2.46,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 11.5,
"prob_edge": -3.4,
"value_pct": -8.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atletico Pilar or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atletico Pilar or Juventud de Bernal",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Juventud de Bernal",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Atletico Pilar or Juventud de Bernal",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Atletico Pilar"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -8.4,
"implied_prob": 40.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Atletico Pilar Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 2.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.0,
"text": "+7.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.07,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10213.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0137,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5210.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0992,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"max_ev": -0.0885,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side_label": "Atletico Pilar",
"sort_key": 1777.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.33,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "Atletico Pilar",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Atletico Pilar",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.23,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Atletico Pilar",
"market_prob": 36.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.33,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.11,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Juventud de Bernal",
"market_prob": 32.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.0,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.97,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Atletico Pilar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atletico Pilar",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Atletico Pilar, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Juventud de Bernal remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.33,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Atletico Pilar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Atletico Pilar.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Atletico Pilar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Atletico Pilar."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Atletico Pilar has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Atletico Pilar."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 1.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atletico Pilar",
"market_prob_pct": 36.36,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.97,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Juventud de Bernal",
"market_prob_pct": 32.66,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Atletico Pilar.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atletico Pilar (36.4%).",
"The model and market both lean Atletico Pilar, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Juventud de Bernal remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Atletico Pilar",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Atletico Pilar",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 23103,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23103.webp",
"away_team_name": "Juventud de Bernal",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1549928,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 23094,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23094.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atletico Pilar",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 1067,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4426,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.3266,
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3315
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4411,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3039
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4484,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.001,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3647
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"edge_no": -0.05,
"edge_yes": 0.05,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"implied_no": 0.505,
"implied_yes": 0.495,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0584,
"edge_under": -0.0584,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"implied_over": 0.4236,
"implied_under": 0.5764,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.07,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.001,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atletico Pilar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.05,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0584,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549928,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.07,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Juventud de Bernal",
"home": "Atletico Pilar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023618,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549928,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:53:17.385094+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Cách sử dụng cái này
- Hãy tập trung vào dòng Chính khi bạn muốn có một ý tưởng có thể thực hiện được.
- Đừng ghép nhiều quân mỏng với nhau;các cạnh không thêm đáng tin cậy.
- Chỉ coi những cú đánh dài là những lượt chơi tùy chọn, có mức đặt cược cao.
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Atletico Pilar & Juventud de Bernal!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
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