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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Cúcuta Deportivo Cúcuta Deportivo ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cúcuta Deportivo win · Cúcuta Deportivo 4–0 Deportivo Pereira
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1c0c594b12748f3498df844be849f15f4bff827bff601b9d1eb885edb60b191f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.2936,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.505,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.496,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3106,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.41,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.22,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.53,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.3958,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.422,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.578
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : C\u00facuta Deportivo or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1192,
"edge_gap": 0.0848,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.4,
"draw": 31.1,
"home": 39.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "C\u00facuta Deportivo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.94,
"market_odds": 1.85,
"model_odds": 2.53,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -14.5,
"value_pct": -26.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 15,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 50.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo or Draw",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo or Deportivo Pereira",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Pereira",
"prob": 60.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.4,
"draw_pct": 31.1,
"home_pct": 39.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.37,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.37,
"under_prob": 57.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 32.9,
"implied_prob": 22.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Deportivo Pereira Win",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 4.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Deportivo Pereira",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.07,
"draw": 27.45,
"home": 51.48
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 21:04:02",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 20:34:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.48,
"gap_pp": -11.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.45,
"gap_pp": 3.64,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.08
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.07,
"gap_pp": 8.28,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.18,
"gap_pp": -5.98,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 42.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.82,
"gap_pp": 5.98,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 57.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.52,
"early": 4.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.07,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.18,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.82,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0595,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.15,
"market_prob": 0.1227,
"market_prob_pct": 12.3,
"model_prob": 0.13,
"model_prob_pct": 13.0,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0206,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.5161,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4632
},
"p_final": 0.5368,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0404,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0338,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5368
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1602,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0982,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 10238.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1562,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.018,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.8,
"text": "+1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2681,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"sort_key": 5214.4,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0062,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4858,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.504,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.492
},
"p_final": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0399,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3399,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.5142,
"model_prob": 0.495,
"p_final": 0.5077
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0273,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0743,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.4,
"text": "-7.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0273,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.4,
"sort_key": 1793.175,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"alert_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.9,
"hero_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"market_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"model_prob_pct": 39.6,
"model_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 39.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta Deportivo as the value side (39.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side C\u00facuta Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1562,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2681,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.9,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.08,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.29,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.08 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"steam_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 39.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta Deportivo as the value side (39.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side C\u00facuta Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1562,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2681,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta Deportivo 1.29 xG vs Deportivo Pereira 1.08 \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo 39.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta Deportivo ~51.5% implied",
"Market Drift: C\u00facuta Deportivo odds \u2191 +8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.9,
"fair_prob": 39.58,
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob": 51.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.61,
"fair_prob": 31.06,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.29,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Deportivo Pereira",
"market_prob": 21.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.49,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.85,
"fair_prob": 49.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.75,
"fair_prob": 50.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 51.48,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo\u0027s win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.6%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00facuta Deportivo 1.29 xG vs Deportivo Pereira 1.08 \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo 39.6%",
"Market: C\u00facuta Deportivo ~51.5% implied",
"Market Drift: C\u00facuta Deportivo odds \u2191 +8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.9,
"hero_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "C\u00facuta Deportivo odds lengthened \u2191 +8.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00facuta Deportivo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00facuta Deportivo than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u00facuta Deportivo."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors C\u00facuta Deportivo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on C\u00facuta Deportivo (\u2191 +8.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on C\u00facuta Deportivo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.5 pp (at 39.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices C\u00facuta Deportivo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.9,
"edge_pp": -11.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"market_prob_pct": 51.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.61,
"edge_pp": 3.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.29,
"edge_pp": 8.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Pereira",
"market_prob_pct": 21.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers C\u00facuta Deportivo (51.5%).",
"C\u00facuta Deportivo odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.8%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo, Market \u2192 C\u00facuta Deportivo, while C\u00facuta Deportivo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on C\u00facuta Deportivo (8.8%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.85",
"1.77",
"1.70"
],
"display": "1.90 \u2192 1.57 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 54m",
"pick_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.57"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.7,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-pereira",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Pereira",
"away_team_id": 1462,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1462.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Pereira",
"away_team_public_id": "01R8wWdolhwLhY",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-pereira",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549805,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"home_team_id": 1470,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1470.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"home_team_public_id": "0JP87qGh7lE8RW",
"home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cucuta",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 21:05:00",
"public_id": "4Z4giDDJTTAGTX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"venue_name": "Estadio General Santander"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1752,
"best_odd": 4.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": 0.018,
"implied_prob": 0.2107,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.5148
},
"model_prob": 0.2935,
"p_final": 0.2252
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0118,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.5148
},
"model_prob": 0.3108,
"p_final": 0.2848
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4927,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2107,
"draw": 0.2745,
"home": 0.5148
},
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"p_final": 0.4561
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.52,
"edge": 0.0723,
"ev": 0.3267,
"implied_prob": 0.2212,
"model_prob": 0.2935
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0786,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.3108
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.1449,
"ev": -0.2681,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3956
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3405,
"alpha_yes": 0.3399,
"best_no_odd": 1.93,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0175,
"edge_yes": -0.0185,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0273,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0627,
"ev_yes": -0.0743,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0862,
"implied_no": 0.4865,
"implied_yes": 0.5135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.492
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3399,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.5142,
"model_prob": 0.495,
"p_final": 0.5077
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.492,
"p_final_yes": 0.5077,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3334,
"alpha_under": 0.3334,
"best_over_odd": 1.99,
"best_under_odd": 1.9,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.92,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": -0.0649,
"edge_under": 0.0649,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1602,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1106,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0338,
"implied_over": 0.4869,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4839,
"implied_under": 0.5131,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5161,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4632
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5368
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4632,
"p_final_under": 0.5368,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3267,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3267,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00facuta Deportivo at 39.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00facuta Deportivo as the value side (39.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00facuta Deportivo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side C\u00facuta Deportivo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549805 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from C\u00facuta Deportivo, but the model still strongly favours C\u00facuta Deportivo.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1562,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2681,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.495,
"draw_prob": 0.3108,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3956,
"over_prob": 0.422,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"under_prob": 0.578,
"xg_diff": 0.21
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0587,
"ev": -0.1562,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.4858,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.504,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3405,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0627,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.492
},
"p_final": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0627,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3399,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.5142,
"model_prob": 0.495,
"p_final": 0.5077
}
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.5161,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.4839,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4632
},
"p_final": 0.5368,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0338,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3334,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.5161,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5368
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0649,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5131,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549805,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2935,
"draw": 0.3108,
"home": 0.3956
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Pereira",
"home": "C\u00facuta Deportivo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034964,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.5131,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1562,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3956,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2681,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549805,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T21:04:06.867386+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Cúcuta Deportivo & Deportivo Pereira!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera A Colombia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Chico FC | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
