Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Envigado Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Bogotá FC 3–3 Envigado
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "093f680c861080d0d592d4b84b14f8f8d47a39eb690fce28e51399ec343478d3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.4091,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.2969,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bogot\u00e1 FC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Bogot\u00e1 FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Envigado",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0145,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3951,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.0,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 29.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"odd": 2.35
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.35,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"display_market": "Envigado Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.53,
"market_odds": 2.35,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 7.7,
"prob_edge": -1.6,
"value_pct": -3.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bogot\u00e1 FC or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bogot\u00e1 FC or Envigado",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Envigado",
"prob": 70.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bogot\u00e1 FC or Envigado",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.9,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Envigado"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "draftkings",
"edge": -3.7,
"implied_prob": 42.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Envigado Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 2.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Envigado",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 39.51,
"draw": 31.47,
"home": 29.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "draftkings",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 21:55:03",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "draftkings",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 21:39:49",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.62,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.02,
"gap_pp": 0.64,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.47,
"gap_pp": -2.08,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.51,
"gap_pp": 1.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.96
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.02,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.73,
"implied_early_pct": 30.74,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.95,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.47,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.89,
"implied_early_pct": 32.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.62,
"implied_early_pct": 36.89,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.3,
"ev": -0.256,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"p_final": 0.3812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2146,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2437,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.4,
"text": "-24.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2628,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10386.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4459,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5339
},
"p_final": 0.4643,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.109,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4643
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2335,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.4,
"text": "-23.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1361,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.6,
"text": "+13.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1361,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10122.49,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0566,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0374,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Envigado",
"sort_key": 1785.85,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"alert_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.07,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"market_team": "Envigado",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Envigado",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0566,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0374,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.07,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"steam_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0566,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0374,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bogot\u00e1 FC 1.18 xG vs Envigado 1.42 \u2192 Envigado 40.9%",
"Market: Envigado ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bogot\u00e1 FC odds \u2191 +5.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Envigado with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.67,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"market_prob": 29.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.07,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Envigado",
"market_prob": 39.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.58,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.58,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.47,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Bogot\u00e1 FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Envigado",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Envigado \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bogot\u00e1 FC 1.18 xG vs Envigado 1.42 \u2192 Envigado 40.9%",
"Market: Envigado ~39.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bogot\u00e1 FC odds \u2191 +5.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Envigado with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.07,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Bogot\u00e1 FC odds lengthened \u2191 +5.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bogot\u00e1 FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Bogot\u00e1 FC has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Bogot\u00e1 FC has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.67,
"edge_pp": 0.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.07,
"edge_pp": -2.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.4,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Envigado",
"market_prob_pct": 39.51,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Envigado (39.5%).",
"Bogot\u00e1 FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.5%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Envigado \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.9,
"closing_odds": 2.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.9,
"entry_odds": 2.95,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 73h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Bogot\u00e1 FC (swing 3.00 \u2192 2.52 \u2192 2.90) \u2014 net 5.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.94",
"2.84",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.52 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 73h 38m",
"pick_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.52"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
2.94,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "envigado",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Envigado",
"away_team_id": 1129,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1129.webp",
"away_team_name": "Envigado",
"away_team_public_id": "5L0moyas0IJVbU",
"away_team_slug": "envigado",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549652,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"home_team_id": 1458,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1458.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bogot\u00e1 FC",
"home_team_public_id": "2ZGZJjKckIsuxD",
"home_team_slug": "bogota-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bogota-fc",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_id": 240,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/240.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1UzUWXxQJJ2nW3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 22:00:00",
"public_id": "34s6Mat7SHdzUm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Metropolitano de Techo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4402,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3951,
"draw": 0.3147,
"home": 0.2902
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4015
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4359,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.3147,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3951,
"draw": 0.3147,
"home": 0.2902
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.3057
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.2902,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3951,
"draw": 0.3147,
"home": 0.2902
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.292
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0375,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.95,
"edge": -0.0451,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.339,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2122,
"alpha_yes": 0.1929,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0958,
"edge_yes": 0.0958,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2335,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1191,
"ev_yes": 0.1361,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0482,
"implied_no": 0.5548,
"implied_yes": 0.4452,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5339
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4643
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5339,
"p_final_yes": 0.4643,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.148,
"alpha_under": 0.2036,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1177,
"edge_under": -0.1177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0395,
"ev_under": -0.2437,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"implied_over": 0.3643,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3636,
"implied_under": 0.6357,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3812,
"p_final_under": 0.6123,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Envigado at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Envigado as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Envigado",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Envigado).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0566,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0374,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Envigado"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4459,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1191,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5339
},
"p_final": 0.4643,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0482,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4643
}
},
"edge": 0.0958,
"ev": 0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"p_final": 0.3812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1177,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3643,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549652,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Envigado",
"home": "Bogot\u00e1 FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088669,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3643,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0566,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3951,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0374,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549652,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T21:59:27.761060+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bogotá FC & Envigado!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera B Colombia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Envigado | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 56 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 4 | Quindio | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 54 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 52 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | Independiente Yumbo | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42 |
| 8 | Bogotá FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 36 |
| 10 | Patriotas Boyacá | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| 11 | Barranquilla | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 34 |
| 12 | Universitario Popayán | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 30 |
| 13 | Orsomarso SC | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 27 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 26 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 19 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 34 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 55 |
| 2 | Envigado | 34 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 56 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 31 | 44 | 30 | +14 | 52 |
| 4 | Internacional Palmira | 32 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 59 |
| 5 | Barranquilla | 31 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 34 |
| 6 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 26 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Quindio | 31 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 54 |
| 8 | Tigres FC | 32 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 45 |
| 9 | Universitario Popayán | 25 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Patriotas Boyacá | 26 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| 11 | Independiente Yumbo | 26 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 42 |
| 12 | Bogotá FC | 32 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 13 | Depor FC | 26 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Real Santander | 26 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 19 |
| 15 | Orsomarso SC | 25 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 27 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 25 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 19 |
