Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Hegelmann Litauen Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Šiauliai 0–0 Hegelmann Litauen
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ec6941b104fc9b607a9a1fae05ba227baccbd0c7a96728a8f7521b3d765daf94",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Hegelmann Litauen",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Hegelmann Litauen"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0011,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3695,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.51
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.51,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hegelmann Litauen Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.71,
"market_odds": 2.51,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": -2.8,
"value_pct": -7.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u0160iauliai or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u0160iauliai or Hegelmann Litauen",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hegelmann Litauen",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "\u0160iauliai or Hegelmann Litauen",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Hegelmann Litauen"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -7.0,
"implied_prob": 39.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Hegelmann Litauen Win",
"model_prob": 37.0,
"odds": 2.51
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.95,
"draw": 28.19,
"home": 34.86
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:57:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 13:31:41",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u0160iauliai",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.86,
"gap_pp": -1.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.19,
"gap_pp": 1.41,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.95,
"gap_pp": 0.11,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.03,
"gap_pp": -4.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.97,
"gap_pp": 4.83,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.86,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.29,
"early": 3.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.51,
"early": 2.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.95,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.03,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.01,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.97,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4703,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2413,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5182
},
"p_final": 0.4807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0153,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0578,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4807
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0412,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0412,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10037.08,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4236,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4303
},
"p_final": 0.4303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2358,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.569
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0714,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.059,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"sort_key": 1785.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.55,
"hero_label": "\u0160iauliai",
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"market_team": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hegelmann Litauen at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hegelmann Litauen as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hegelmann Litauen at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hegelmann Litauen as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0160iauliai 1.26 xG vs Hegelmann Litauen 1.34 \u2192 Hegelmann Litauen 37.1%",
"Market: Hegelmann Litauen ~37.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hegelmann Litauen, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.55,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "\u0160iauliai",
"market_prob": 34.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.44,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"market_prob": 36.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.94,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u0160iauliai",
"market_prob_pct": 34.86,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u0160iauliai 1.26 xG vs Hegelmann Litauen 1.34 \u2192 Hegelmann Litauen 37.1%",
"Market: Hegelmann Litauen ~37.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hegelmann Litauen, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.55,
"hero_label": "\u0160iauliai",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.9%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 2.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.9%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "\u0160iauliai",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.55,
"edge_pp": -1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u0160iauliai",
"market_prob_pct": 34.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.44,
"edge_pp": 1.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.11,
"edge_pp": 0.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"market_prob_pct": 36.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hegelmann Litauen (37.0%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.9%, 5/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hegelmann Litauen, Market \u2192 Hegelmann Litauen, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.59,
"closing_odds": 2.66,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.59,
"entry_odds": 2.66,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.54 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.40",
"3.29"
],
"display": "3.54 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 38m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.54"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.29,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,8.6",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/10",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hegelmann-litauen",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"away_team_id": 3861,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3861.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"away_team_public_id": "1Lau0N7YzrSr3n",
"away_team_slug": "hegelmann-litauen",
"country_code": "LT",
"country_display_name": "Lithuania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_id": 96,
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1547631,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_display_name": "\u0160iauliai",
"home_team_id": 3870,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3870.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u0160iauliai",
"home_team_public_id": "2ldfIDwIJIxY14",
"home_team_slug": "siauliai",
"ht.home_team_slug": "siauliai",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_country_display": "Lithuania",
"league_display_name": "A Lyga Lithuania",
"league_id": 362,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/362.webp",
"league_name": "A Lyga Lithuania",
"league_public_id": "35AQixtulzhnHF",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 14:00:00",
"public_id": "06VRjQtmzhyupu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Siauliai central stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4493,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.2819,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.37
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2937,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.2819,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.2819,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.286
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3695,
"draw": 0.2819,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.342
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0425,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2144,
"alpha_yes": 0.2358,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0294,
"edge_yes": -0.0294,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.101,
"implied_no": 0.4256,
"implied_yes": 0.5744,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2358,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.569
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4303,
"p_final_yes": 0.569,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2413,
"alpha_under": 0.2193,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.96,
"edge_over": -0.0472,
"edge_under": 0.0472,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0983,
"ev_under": 0.0412,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0578,
"implied_over": 0.5292,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5297,
"implied_under": 0.4708,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4703,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2413,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5182
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4807
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5182,
"p_final_under": 0.4807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hegelmann Litauen at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hegelmann Litauen as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Hegelmann Litauen.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0412,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4708,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0714,
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hegelmann Litauen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4236,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4303
},
"p_final": 0.4303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2358,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.569
}
},
"edge": 0.0294,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4256,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4703,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2413,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5182
},
"p_final": 0.4807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0578,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2193,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0578,
"implied_prob": 0.4703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4807
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0472,
"ev": 0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.4708,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547631,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0412,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hegelmann Litauen",
"home": "\u0160iauliai"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3695,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547631,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T13:57:44.879030+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Šiauliai & Hegelmann Litauen!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
A Lyga Lithuania — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 51 |
| 2 | Sūduva Marijampolė | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | FK Žalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 56 | 20 | +36 | 51 |
| 2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Žalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 44 |
| 4 | Sūduva Marijampolė | 28 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 50 |
| 5 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga | 28 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 41 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 28 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 32 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
