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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Ituano U20 Ituano U20 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Ituano U20 win · Ituano U20 3–0 Flamengo SP U20
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2454,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.471,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2865,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.07,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.49,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.14,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.54,
"home_win_prob": 0.4681,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Flamengo SP U20",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Flamengo SP U20"
},
"away_xg": 1.06,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ituano U20",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0457,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5132,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 28.7,
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},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.73
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],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.73,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.95,
"market_odds": 1.73,
"model_odds": 2.14,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -11.1,
"value_pct": -19.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 13,
"away_score_rate": 65.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 13,
"home_score_rate": 78.6,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.06,
"home_expected": 1.54,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ituano U20 or Draw",
"prob": 75.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ituano U20 or Flamengo SP U20",
"prob": 71.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Flamengo SP U20",
"prob": 53.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Ituano U20 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 75.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.5,
"draw_pct": 28.6,
"home_pct": 46.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ituano U20"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": -19.2,
"implied_prob": 57.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ituano U20 Win",
"model_prob": 46.7,
"odds": 1.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Flamengo SP U20",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.94,
"draw": 25.74,
"home": 51.32
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:00:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 17:31:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ituano U20",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.32,
"gap_pp": -4.57,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 46.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.74,
"gap_pp": 2.93,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.94,
"gap_pp": 1.64,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 24.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.51,
"gap_pp": -5.31,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.49,
"gap_pp": 5.31,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.32,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.87,
"early": 3.87,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.72,
"early": 1.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.51,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.98,
"early": 1.98,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.49,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.2,
"ev": -0.153,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.121,
"model_prob_pct": 12.1,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.54,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2038,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0128,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4553,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5307
},
"p_final": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0412,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2038,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0128,
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"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4681
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0082,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4321,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4403
},
"p_final": 0.4403,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0156,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0797,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.233,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0221,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1271,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0221,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 5217.68,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1563,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0831,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1912,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Ituano U20",
"sort_key": 1779.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.51,
"hero_label": "Ituano U20",
"market_prob_pct": 51.3,
"market_team": "Ituano U20",
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_team": "Ituano U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ituano U20 at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ituano U20 as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ituano U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1563,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1912,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.51,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.51,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.06,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.54,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.54 \u00b7 Away xG 1.06 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ituano U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ituano U20 at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ituano U20 as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ituano U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1563,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1912,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ituano U20 1.54 xG vs Flamengo SP U20 1.06 \u2192 Ituano U20 46.8%",
"Market: Ituano U20 ~51.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ituano U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ituano U20 projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob": 46.81,
"label": "Ituano U20",
"market_prob": 51.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.91,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"fair_prob": 24.54,
"label": "Flamengo SP U20",
"market_prob": 22.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.26,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.26,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.89,
"fair_prob": 52.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ituano U20",
"market_prob_pct": 51.32,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ituano U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.51,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Ituano U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ituano U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ituano U20 1.54 xG vs Flamengo SP U20 1.06 \u2192 Ituano U20 46.8%",
"Market: Ituano U20 ~51.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Ituano U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Ituano U20 projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.51,
"hero_label": "Ituano U20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.51,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.2 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.2,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ituano U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.51,
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ituano U20",
"market_prob_pct": 51.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.91,
"edge_pp": 2.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.6,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flamengo SP U20",
"market_prob_pct": 22.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ituano U20 (51.3%).",
"Ituano U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Ituano U20",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Ituano U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "flamengo-sp-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flamengo SP U20",
"away_team_id": 13007,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13007.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flamengo SP U20",
"away_team_public_id": "0Vq7UnKBKXT6qf",
"away_team_slug": "flamengo-sp-u20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1547500,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Ituano U20",
"home_team_id": 13016,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13016.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ituano U20",
"home_team_public_id": "2CgWbVphivvK9K",
"home_team_slug": "ituano-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ituano-u20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Paulista U20",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Paulista U20",
"league_public_id": "1Z9EyPySP5tPsw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "5HdspoqSgYsYsv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2926,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2574,
"home": 0.5132
},
"model_prob": 0.2458,
"p_final": 0.2342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2868,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0084,
"ev": -0.0831,
"implied_prob": 0.2574,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2574,
"home": 0.5132
},
"model_prob": 0.2867,
"p_final": 0.2658
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5589,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2294,
"draw": 0.2574,
"home": 0.5132
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"p_final": 0.4877
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2458
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.011,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.1105,
"ev": -0.1912,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.4675
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2119,
"alpha_yes": 0.233,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0389,
"edge_yes": -0.0389,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0221,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0797,
"ev_yes": -0.1271,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1114,
"implied_no": 0.4321,
"implied_yes": 0.5679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4403
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.233,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4403,
"p_final_yes": 0.5589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2242,
"alpha_under": 0.2038,
"best_over_odd": 1.72,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0626,
"edge_under": 0.0626,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.171,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1085,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0592,
"implied_over": 0.5446,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5447,
"implied_under": 0.4554,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4553,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5307
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2038,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4681
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5307,
"p_final_under": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ituano U20 at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ituano U20 as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ituano U20",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ituano U20).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1563,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1912,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"draw_prob": 0.2867,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4675,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ituano U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4321,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.4403
},
"p_final": 0.4403,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0797,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.233,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.5679,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.5589
}
},
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2038,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.4553,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2242,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0141,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5307
},
"p_final": 0.4681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0592,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2038,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0592,
"implied_prob": 0.4553,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4681
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0626,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547500,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2458,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.4675
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flamengo SP U20",
"home": "Ituano U20"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4554,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1563,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5132,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1912,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547500,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:00:34.729466+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ituano U20 & Flamengo SP U20!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Paulista U20 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
