Mauá U20 vs Água Santa U20 Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3424,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.92,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.77,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3611,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Winner : \u00c1gua Santa U20 and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "\u00c1gua Santa U20"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.28,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.139,
        "edge_gap": 0.0185,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.222,
        "model_prob": 0.3609,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.2,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 36.1
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.01
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
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        "best_odds": 4.01,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 4.51,
        "market_odds": 4.01,
        "model_odds": 2.77,
        "overround": 12.3,
        "prob_edge": 11.2,
        "value_pct": 44.8,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 1,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 2,
        "away_score_rate": 72.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 2,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.28,
        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 9.5
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Mau\u00e1 U20 or Draw",
            "prob": 65.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Mau\u00e1 U20 or \u00c1gua Santa U20",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or \u00c1gua Santa U20",
            "prob": 63.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20 or \u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
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      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 36.1,
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        "lean_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 3.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "under_prob": 51.8
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        "edge": 44.8,
        "implied_prob": 24.9,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Mau\u00e1 U20 Win",
        "model_prob": 36.1,
        "odds": 4.01
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
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      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
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      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 22.2,
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          "model_pct": 36.09
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.65,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.67
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          "closing_implied_pct": 51.15,
          "gap_pp": -16.91,
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          "model_pct": 34.24
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          "closing_implied_pct": 47.04,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 52.96,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 4.01,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 22.2,
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          "closing": 3.34,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 26.65,
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          "closing": 1.74,
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          "closing": 1.75,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1565,
        "ev_over_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -15.7,
          "text": "-15.7%"
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        "ev_under": 0.0619,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 6.2,
          "text": "+6.2%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 48.2,
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        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
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        "ev": -0.0217,
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          "raw_pct": -2.2,
          "text": "-2.2%"
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.222,
        "max_ev": -0.0217,
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          "raw_pct": -2.2,
          "text": "-2.2%"
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        "side_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
        "sort_key": 1794.575,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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        "ev_no": -0.0218,
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        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1117,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -11.2,
          "text": "-11.2%"
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        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0218,
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        "sort_key": 1794.55,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
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        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 16.9,
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        "hero_edge_pp": -16.91,
        "hero_label": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "market_prob_pct": 22.2,
        "market_team": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
        "model_team": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.91,
          "fair_prob": 36.11,
          "label": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
          "market_prob": 22.2,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.0,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 26.65,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.91,
          "fair_prob": 34.24,
          "label": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
          "market_prob": 51.15,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.05,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.25,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.05,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.75,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.29,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 56.79,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.29,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 43.21,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -16.91,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "market_prob_pct": 51.15,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 16.91,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 22.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Mau\u00e1 U20, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and \u00c1gua Santa U20 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -16.91,
        "hero_label": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Mau\u00e1 U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c1gua Santa U20 than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Mau\u00e1 U20.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c1gua Santa U20 than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Mau\u00e1 U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Mau\u00e1 U20."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors \u00c1gua Santa U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Mau\u00e1 U20 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Mau\u00e1 U20."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 16.91,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 13.91,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.2,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.0,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.65,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -16.91,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
            "market_prob_pct": 51.15,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Mau\u00e1 U20.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers \u00c1gua Santa U20 (22.2%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Mau\u00e1 U20, Market \u2192 \u00c1gua Santa U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
        "closing_odds": 1.74,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
        "entry_odds": 1.74,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/8",
        "current_odds": 3.1,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 16.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 13078,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13078.webp",
      "away_team_name": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1547254,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 13026,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13026.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Mau\u00e1 U20",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 1086,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
      "league_name": "Paulista - U20",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "implied_under": 0.4675,
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
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          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.222,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3609,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1547254,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2967,
        "home": 0.3609
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      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "\u00c1gua Santa U20",
        "home": "Mau\u00e1 U20"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.022445,
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1547254,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T17:59:17.885280+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}