IA Akranes vs Vikingur Reykjavik Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "16a73cb71df4c21231be58bb8cffaa9488bc1c3970bfab6ee57a05351e240b62",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
      "away_win_prob": 0.347,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.88,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.81,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3564,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Vikingur Reykjavik",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Vikingur Reykjavik"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.29,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "IA Akranes",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1973,
        "edge_gap": 0.0087,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1586,
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.7,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 35.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 5.84
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 5.84,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "IA Akranes Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 6.31,
        "market_odds": 5.84,
        "model_odds": 2.81,
        "overround": 8.0,
        "prob_edge": 18.5,
        "value_pct": 107.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 1,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 2,
        "away_score_rate": 72.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 2,
        "home_score_rate": 73.0,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.29,
        "home_expected": 1.31,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "IA Akranes or Draw",
            "prob": 65.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "IA Akranes or Vikingur Reykjavik",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik",
            "prob": 64.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "IA Akranes or Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.7,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 35.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "IA Akranes"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 3.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 3.5,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 107.9,
        "implied_prob": 17.1,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "IA Akranes Win",
        "model_prob": 35.6,
        "odds": 5.84
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "IA Akranes",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 15.86,
          "gap_pp": 19.73,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 35.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 17.51,
          "gap_pp": 12.17,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.68
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 66.63,
          "gap_pp": -31.9,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 34.73
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 5.84,
          "early": 5.84,
          "implied_closing_pct": 15.86,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 15.86,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 5.29,
          "early": 5.29,
          "implied_closing_pct": 17.51,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 17.51,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.39,
          "early": 1.39,
          "implied_closing_pct": 66.63,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 66.63,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 19.7,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.31,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3589,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -35.9,
          "text": "-35.9%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.7094,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 70.9,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.7094,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10788.46,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1603,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 16.0,
          "text": "+16.0%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1879,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.8,
          "text": "-18.8%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1603,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 10144.27,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0885,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 8.8,
          "text": "+8.8%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1586,
        "max_ev": 0.0885,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 8.8,
          "text": "+8.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "side_label": "IA Akranes",
        "sort_key": 10079.65,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.6
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -21.7%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 31.9,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -31.93,
        "hero_label": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "market_prob_pct": 15.9,
        "market_team": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
        "model_team": "IA Akranes",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2717",
        "status_key": "disagrees",
        "status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
        "status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 19.78,
          "fair_prob": 35.64,
          "label": "IA Akranes",
          "market_prob": 15.86,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.14,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 17.51,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -31.93,
          "fair_prob": 34.7,
          "label": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
          "market_prob": 66.63,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -22.37,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 70.57,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 22.37,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 29.43,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.3,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 62.8,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.3,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 37.2,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -31.93,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "market_prob_pct": 66.63,
        "status": "model_breakdown_risk",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "breakdown",
          "edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
          "max_gap_pp": 31.93,
          "suppress_hero": true,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
        "divergence_level": "breakdown",
        "divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
        "divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 31.9 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
        "divergence_tier": "breakdown",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "IA Akranes",
          "headline": "Model breakdown risk",
          "market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 15.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "paragraphs": [
            "Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
          ],
          "reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2717",
          "reliability_tier": "breakdown",
          "summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
          "tier": "breakdown",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Fail"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -31.93,
        "hero_label": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -21.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "very_weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 31.93,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
          "status": "fail"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Fail",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 19.78,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "IA Akranes",
            "market_prob_pct": 15.86,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.14,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 17.51,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -31.93,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
            "market_prob_pct": 66.63,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "model_breakdown_risk",
        "status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Vikingur Reykjavik (15.9%).",
          "However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -21.7%, 10/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 IA Akranes, Market \u2192 Vikingur Reykjavik, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 71.94,
        "closing_odds": 1.39,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 71.94,
        "entry_odds": 1.39,
        "model_validation_label": "Fail",
        "model_validation_status": "fail",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "lost"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "10/13 books synchronized on Draw (21.7% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "6.00 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 4.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.6 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 5.75,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -21.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -21.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 4.5,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -21.7%",
        "open_odds": 5.75,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 92,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 31.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 278,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/278.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
      "country_code": "IS",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
      "country_name": "Iceland",
      "fixture_id": 1545810,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Iceland",
      "home_team_id": 827,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/827.webp",
      "home_team_name": "IA Akranes",
      "league_country": "Iceland",
      "league_id": 167,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/167.webp",
      "league_name": "Cup",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 20:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Akranes",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3129,
            "best_odd": 1.39,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0998,
            "ev": -0.2126,
            "implied_prob": 0.6663,
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.5665
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1635,
            "best_odd": 5.29,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0199,
            "ev": 0.0314,
            "implied_prob": 0.1751,
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.195
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1408,
            "best_odd": 5.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0278,
            "ev": 0.0885,
            "implied_prob": 0.1586,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.1864
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.55,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.49,
          "edge_no": 0.083,
          "edge_yes": -0.083,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1603,
          "ev_yes": -0.1879,
          "implied_no": 0.372,
          "implied_yes": 0.628,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.33,
          "best_under_odd": 3.3,
          "edge_over": -0.2237,
          "edge_under": 0.2237,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3589,
          "ev_under": 0.7094,
          "implied_over": 0.7057,
          "implied_under": 0.2943,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0314,
          "implied_prob": 0.1751,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2968,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0278,
          "ev": 0.0885,
          "implied_prob": 0.1586,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "IA Akranes"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.083,
          "ev": 0.1603,
          "implied_prob": 0.372,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2237,
          "ev": 0.7094,
          "implied_prob": 0.2943,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1545810,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3473,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3559
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1603,
        "implied_prob": 0.372,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1603,
          "implied_prob": 0.372,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Vikingur Reykjavik",
        "home": "IA Akranes"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.257228,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.7094,
        "implied_prob": 0.2943,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 4
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1545810,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T20:14:04.538195+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}