Retrô vs Treze Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2926,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.4535,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.1,
      "away_win_prob": 0.254,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.254,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2926,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2926,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.94,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.94,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.21,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.21,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.5,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4535,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4535,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Treze",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Treze"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.1,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "edge": -0.037,
        "edge_gap": 0.1603,
        "market": "1X2",
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        "model_prob": 0.4531,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.4,
          "draw": 29.3,
          "home": 45.3
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.81
        }
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        "best_odds": 1.81,
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        "display_market": "Retr\u00f4 Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.04,
        "market_odds": 1.81,
        "model_odds": 2.21,
        "overround": 12.7,
        "prob_edge": -10.0,
        "value_pct": -18.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 66.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 77.7,
        "no_prob": 46.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 53.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 53.4
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.1,
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        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 0,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 8.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Retr\u00f4 or Draw",
            "prob": 74.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Retr\u00f4 or Treze",
            "prob": 70.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Treze",
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        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Retr\u00f4 or Draw",
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      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 29.3,
        "home_pct": 45.4,
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        "lean_label": "Retr\u00f4"
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      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
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        "under_prob": 51.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 2.4,
        "implied_prob": 24.8,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Treze Win",
        "model_prob": 25.4,
        "odds": 4.03
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
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      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Retr\u00f4",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "model_pct": 45.31
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          "closing": 1.81,
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        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.5,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": 3.6,
          "text": "+3.6%"
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          "raw_pct": -13.5,
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    ],
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        "alert_breadth": "12/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "12/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +21.9%",
        "alert_team": "Treze",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -3.65,
        "hero_label": "Retr\u00f4",
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        "market_team": "Retr\u00f4",
        "model_prob_pct": 45.4,
        "model_team": "Retr\u00f4",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 99,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.65,
          "fair_prob": 45.35,
          "label": "Retr\u00f4",
          "market_prob": 49.0,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 0.27,
          "fair_prob": 29.26,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 28.99,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 3.39,
          "fair_prob": 25.4,
          "label": "Treze",
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.37,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 43.83,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.37,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 56.17,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.11,
          "fair_prob": 53.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 49.29,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.11,
          "fair_prob": 46.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 50.71,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": -3.65,
        "fair_prob_pct": 45.35,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Retr\u00f4",
        "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Treze"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.65,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Retr\u00f4",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 45.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both identify Retr\u00f4 as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -3.65,
        "hero_label": "Retr\u00f4",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Treze odds lengthened \u2191 +21.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Treze has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Treze \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Treze has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Treze \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Treze has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on Treze."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 3.65,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.1 pp (at 45.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 16.1,
          "max_prob_pct": 45.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.65,
            "fair_prob_pct": 45.35,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Retr\u00f4",
            "market_prob_pct": 49.0,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 0.27,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.99,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.39,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Treze",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.01,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Treze \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.9% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Retr\u00f4 (49.0%).",
          "However, Treze has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +21.9%, 12/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Retr\u00f4, Market \u2192 Retr\u00f4, Recent sharp money \u2192 Treze.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
        "closing_odds": 1.81,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
        "entry_odds": 1.81,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "12/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "12/12 books synchronized on Treze (21.9% steam, score 99) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.95 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.90",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Treze",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.90"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.2,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Treze \u2191 +21.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Treze",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Treze \u2191 +21.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 99,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/12",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
        "open_odds": 3.2,
        "pick_team": "Treze",
        "steam_score": 99,
        "steam_team_name": "Treze",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Historical similar matches",
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          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
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      "venue_city": null,
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "side_label": "Retr\u00f4"
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      },
      "match_id": 1538065,
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:59:38.476099+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}