Real Noroeste vs Democrata GV Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3285,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2961,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.04,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.66,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3754,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Democrata GV",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Democrata GV"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Real Noroeste",
      "confidence": null,
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1839,
        "edge_gap": 0.047,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1918,
        "model_prob": 0.3757,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.9,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 37.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.52
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.52,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "display_market": "Real Noroeste Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 5.21,
        "market_odds": 4.52,
        "model_odds": 2.66,
        "overround": 15.4,
        "prob_edge": 15.5,
        "value_pct": 69.9,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 71.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 74.1,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.25,
        "home_expected": 1.35,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
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          {
            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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            "prob": 7.8
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Real Noroeste or Draw",
            "prob": 67.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Real Noroeste or Democrata GV",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Democrata GV",
            "prob": 62.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Real Noroeste or Democrata GV",
        "pick_prob": 70.4
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 32.9,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 37.5,
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        "lean_label": "Real Noroeste"
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      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
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        "home_avg_scored": 0.7,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
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        "edge": 69.9,
        "implied_prob": 22.1,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Real Noroeste Win",
        "model_prob": 37.6,
        "odds": 4.52
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Democrata GV",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Real Noroeste",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 19.18,
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          "model_pct": 37.57
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.29,
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          "model_pct": 29.56
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 49.53,
          "gap_pp": -16.66,
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          "model_pct": 32.87
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.11,
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          "model_pct": 48.2
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          "closing_implied_pct": 59.89,
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          "closing": 2.77,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 40.11,
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    "home_xg": 1.35,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2265,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -22.7,
          "text": "-22.7%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1445,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 14.4,
          "text": "+14.4%"
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        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
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        "ev_over": 0.1327,
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          "raw_pct": 13.3,
          "text": "+13.3%"
        },
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          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.7,
          "text": "-18.7%"
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          "raw_pct": -1.3,
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        "sort_key": 1796.8,
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "alert_team": "Real Noroeste",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 18.4,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.36,
        "hero_label": "Real Noroeste",
        "market_prob_pct": 19.2,
        "market_team": "Democrata GV",
        "model_prob_pct": 37.5,
        "model_team": "Real Noroeste",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 94,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 18.36,
          "fair_prob": 37.54,
          "label": "Real Noroeste",
          "market_prob": 19.18,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.68,
          "fair_prob": 29.61,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.29,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.68,
          "fair_prob": 32.85,
          "label": "Democrata GV",
          "market_prob": 49.53,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.7,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 39.5,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.7,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 60.5,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.47,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 45.03,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.47,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.97,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 18.36,
        "fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Real Noroeste",
        "market_prob_pct": 19.18,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Real Noroeste"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.36,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Real Noroeste",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 19.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Real Noroeste, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Democrata GV remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.36,
        "hero_label": "Real Noroeste",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Real Noroeste odds lengthened \u2191 +33.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Real Noroeste.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Real Noroeste.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Real Noroeste.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Real Noroeste."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Real Noroeste more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Real Noroeste (\u2191 +33.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Real Noroeste."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 18.36,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 18.36,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Real Noroeste",
            "market_prob_pct": 19.18,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.68,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.29,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -16.68,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Democrata GV",
            "market_prob_pct": 49.53,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Real Noroeste.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Democrata GV (19.2%).",
          "However, Real Noroeste has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +33.3%, 10/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Noroeste, Market \u2192 Democrata GV, Recent sharp money \u2192 Real Noroeste.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 22.12,
        "closing_odds": 4.52,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 22.12,
        "entry_odds": 4.52,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 33.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "10/12 books synchronized on Real Noroeste (33.3% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.65 \u2192 2.98 \u2192 4.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Real Noroeste",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.65"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.98"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.2",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Real Noroeste \u2191 +33.3% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Real Noroeste",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Real Noroeste \u2191 +33.3% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 94,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "current_odds": 4.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "pick_team": "Real Noroeste",
        "steam_score": 94,
        "steam_team_name": "Real Noroeste",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 18.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
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          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 13080,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13080.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Democrata GV",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1538064,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 10679,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10679.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Real Noroeste",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 76,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie D",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 20:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.0
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            "best_odd": 1.75,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.075,
            "ev": -0.2644,
            "implied_prob": 0.4953,
            "model_prob": 0.3287,
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          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1542,
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            "model_prob": 0.2956,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 4.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0266,
            "ev": -0.0128,
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            "model_prob": 0.3757,
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.1,
          "edge_no": -0.0947,
          "edge_yes": 0.0947,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2265,
          "ev_yes": 0.1445,
          "implied_no": 0.5497,
          "implied_yes": 0.4503,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.57,
          "edge_over": 0.087,
          "edge_under": -0.087,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1327,
          "ev_under": -0.1867,
          "implied_over": 0.395,
          "implied_under": 0.605,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1445,
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      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.2956,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.1
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0266,
          "ev": -0.0128,
          "implied_prob": 0.1918,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3757,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Real Noroeste"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0947,
          "ev": 0.1445,
          "implied_prob": 0.4503,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.087,
          "ev": 0.1327,
          "implied_prob": 0.395,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1538064,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1445,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3287,
        "draw": 0.2956,
        "home": 0.3757
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1327,
        "implied_prob": 0.395,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1327,
          "implied_prob": 0.395,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Democrata GV",
        "home": "Real Noroeste"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.078753,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1445,
        "implied_prob": 0.4503,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1538064,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T19:59:14.349051+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}