Manauara vs Sao Raimundo Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.2422,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2886,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.4693,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2422,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2422,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.46,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2886,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2886,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.13,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.13,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.47,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.47,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.13,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.13,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4693,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4693,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Manauara or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Manauara"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.16,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Manauara",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1003,
        "edge_gap": 0.1813,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5698,
        "model_prob": 0.4696,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 24.2,
          "draw": 28.8,
          "home": 47.0
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.53
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.53,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Manauara Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.75,
        "market_odds": 1.53,
        "model_odds": 2.13,
        "overround": 14.7,
        "prob_edge": -18.4,
        "value_pct": -28.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 68.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 76.3,
        "no_prob": 46.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.16,
        "home_expected": 1.44,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Manauara or Draw",
            "prob": 75.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Manauara or Sao Raimundo",
            "prob": 71.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sao Raimundo",
            "prob": 53.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Manauara or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 75.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 24.2,
        "draw_pct": 28.9,
        "home_pct": 46.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Manauara"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 36.0,
        "implied_prob": 17.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Sao Raimundo Win",
        "model_prob": 24.2,
        "odds": 5.62
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Sao Raimundo",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Manauara",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 56.98,
          "gap_pp": -10.03,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 46.96
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.5,
          "gap_pp": 1.32,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 28.82
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 15.51,
          "gap_pp": 8.7,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 24.22
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 45.87,
          "gap_pp": 2.33,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 54.13,
          "gap_pp": -2.33,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.53,
          "early": 1.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 56.98,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 56.98,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.17,
          "early": 3.17,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.5,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.5,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 5.62,
          "early": 5.62,
          "implied_closing_pct": 15.51,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 15.51,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.03,
          "early": 2.03,
          "implied_closing_pct": 45.87,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 45.87,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.72,
          "early": 1.72,
          "implied_closing_pct": 54.13,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 54.13,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 8.7,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.44,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2042,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.4,
          "text": "-20.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.188,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 18.8,
          "text": "+18.8%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.188,
        "no_prob": 46.0,
        "sort_key": 10319.2,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.0
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0026,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 0.3,
          "text": "+0.3%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1039,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -10.4,
          "text": "-10.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0026,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 5202.08,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.2063,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.6,
          "text": "-20.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5698,
        "max_ev": -0.0431,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -4.3,
          "text": "-4.3%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4696,
        "side_label": "Manauara",
        "sort_key": 1789.225,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.4
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "alert_team": "Sao Raimundo",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 10.1,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.05,
        "hero_label": "Manauara",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.0,
        "market_team": "Manauara",
        "model_prob_pct": 46.9,
        "model_team": "Manauara",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 91,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.05,
          "fair_prob": 46.93,
          "label": "Manauara",
          "market_prob": 56.98,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.36,
          "fair_prob": 28.86,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.5,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.71,
          "fair_prob": 24.22,
          "label": "Sao Raimundo",
          "market_prob": 15.51,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.36,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 45.84,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.36,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 54.16,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.71,
          "fair_prob": 54.0,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 45.29,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.71,
          "fair_prob": 46.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.71,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -10.05,
        "fair_prob_pct": 46.93,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Manauara",
        "market_prob_pct": 56.98,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Sao Raimundo"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.05,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Manauara",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 57.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 46.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Manauara, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.05,
        "hero_label": "Manauara",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Sao Raimundo odds lengthened \u2191 +33.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Sao Raimundo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Manauara than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Sao Raimundo \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Manauara than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Sao Raimundo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Sao Raimundo \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Manauara more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Sao Raimundo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (8/11) supports the current market view on Sao Raimundo."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.05,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.1 pp (at 46.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 18.1,
          "max_prob_pct": 46.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 46.93,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Manauara",
            "market_prob_pct": 56.98,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.36,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.86,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.5,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 8.71,
            "fair_prob_pct": 24.22,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sao Raimundo",
            "market_prob_pct": 15.51,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Sao Raimundo \u2014 odds lengthened by 33.3% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Manauara (57.0%).",
          "However, Sao Raimundo has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +33.3%, 8/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Manauara, Market \u2192 Manauara, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sao Raimundo.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 65.36,
        "closing_odds": 1.53,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 65.36,
        "entry_odds": 1.53,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 6.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 33.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "8/11 books synchronized on Sao Raimundo (33.3% steam, score 91) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "6.37 \u2192 4.20 \u2192 6.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Sao Raimundo",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.37"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.20"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "6.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.6 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sao Raimundo \u2191 +33.3% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Sao Raimundo",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sao Raimundo \u2191 +33.3% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 91,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "current_odds": 6.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "pick_team": "Sao Raimundo",
        "steam_score": 91,
        "steam_team_name": "Sao Raimundo",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
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}