CRAC vs Ivinhema Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "09b98108aa16f3b33af2b6f37bb3322ee6cfd25c2bf60f9dc15d9a30f86298b0",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.253,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3101,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.4369,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
      "away_win_prob": 0.253,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.253,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.456,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3101,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3101,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.95,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.95,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.22,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.22,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.29,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.29,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4369,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4369,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : CRAC or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "CRAC"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.22,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "CRAC",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1336,
        "edge_gap": 0.1261,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5701,
        "model_prob": 0.4365,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.3,
          "draw": 31.0,
          "home": 43.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.59
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.59,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "CRAC Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.75,
        "market_odds": 1.59,
        "model_odds": 2.29,
        "overround": 10.3,
        "prob_edge": -19.2,
        "value_pct": -30.6,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 70.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 74.8,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.22,
        "home_expected": 1.38,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "CRAC or Draw",
            "prob": 74.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "CRAC or Ivinhema",
            "prob": 69.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Ivinhema",
            "prob": 56.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "CRAC or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 74.7
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 25.3,
        "draw_pct": 31.0,
        "home_pct": 43.7,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "CRAC"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.7,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 63.4,
        "implied_prob": 15.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Ivinhema Win",
        "model_prob": 25.3,
        "odds": 6.46
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Ivinhema",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "CRAC",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 57.01,
          "gap_pp": -13.36,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 43.65
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 28.96,
          "gap_pp": 2.08,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 31.04
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 14.03,
          "gap_pp": 11.27,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 25.31
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
          "gap_pp": 8.2,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.0,
          "gap_pp": -8.2,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.59,
          "early": 1.59,
          "implied_closing_pct": 57.01,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 57.01,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.13,
          "early": 3.13,
          "implied_closing_pct": 28.96,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 28.96,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 6.46,
          "early": 6.46,
          "implied_closing_pct": 14.03,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 14.03,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.31,
          "early": 2.31,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.0,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.0,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.54,
          "early": 1.54,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.0,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.0,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 11.3,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.38,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2385,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -23.8,
          "text": "-23.8%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.2186,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 21.9,
          "text": "+21.9%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.2186,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "sort_key": 10346.74,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.205,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 20.5,
          "text": "+20.5%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2023,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.2,
          "text": "-20.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.205,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10184.5,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1955,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -19.6,
          "text": "-19.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5701,
        "max_ev": 0.0275,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 2.8,
          "text": "+2.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4365,
        "side_label": "CRAC",
        "sort_key": 5222.0,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "2/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "2/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "alert_team": "Ivinhema",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 13.3,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.32,
        "hero_label": "CRAC",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.0,
        "market_team": "CRAC",
        "model_prob_pct": 43.7,
        "model_team": "CRAC",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.32,
          "fair_prob": 43.69,
          "label": "CRAC",
          "market_prob": 57.01,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.05,
          "fair_prob": 31.01,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 28.96,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.27,
          "fair_prob": 25.3,
          "label": "Ivinhema",
          "market_prob": 14.03,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.11,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 39.09,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.11,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 60.91,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.89,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 42.51,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.89,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 57.49,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -13.32,
        "fair_prob_pct": 43.69,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "CRAC",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.01,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Ivinhema"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.32,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "CRAC",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 57.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 43.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean CRAC, but the market prices them higher (57.0% vs model 43.7%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.32,
        "hero_label": "CRAC",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Ivinhema odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Ivinhema has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about CRAC than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Ivinhema \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about CRAC than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Ivinhema has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Drift away from Ivinhema \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors CRAC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Ivinhema has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (2/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.32,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.7 pp (at 43.7%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 12.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 43.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.32,
            "fair_prob_pct": 43.69,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "CRAC",
            "market_prob_pct": 57.01,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.01,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.96,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 11.27,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.3,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ivinhema",
            "market_prob_pct": 14.03,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Ivinhema \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.1% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers CRAC (57.0%).",
          "Ivinhema has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +11.1%, 2/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CRAC, Market \u2192 CRAC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ivinhema.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 62.89,
        "closing_odds": 1.59,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 62.89,
        "entry_odds": 1.59,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 2,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "2/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 10.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Ivinhema (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "12.00 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 10.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Ivinhema",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "12.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "10.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,5.1 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 9.0,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ivinhema",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/12",
        "current_odds": 10.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
        "open_odds": 9.0,
        "pick_team": "Ivinhema",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_team_name": "Ivinhema",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.3,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10687,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10687.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ivinhema",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1538040,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 10671,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10671.webp",
      "home_team_name": "CRAC",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 76,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie D",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1662,
            "best_odd": 6.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0187,
            "ev": 0.0275,
            "implied_prob": 0.1403,
            "model_prob": 0.2531,
            "p_final": 0.1591
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2906,
            "best_odd": 3.13,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0061,
            "ev": -0.0746,
            "implied_prob": 0.2896,
            "model_prob": 0.3104,
            "p_final": 0.2957
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4798,
            "best_odd": 1.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0641,
            "ev": -0.1955,
            "implied_prob": 0.5701,
            "model_prob": 0.4365,
            "p_final": 0.506
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.67,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.24,
          "edge_no": -0.1189,
          "edge_yes": 0.1189,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2385,
          "ev_yes": 0.2186,
          "implied_no": 0.5749,
          "implied_yes": 0.4251,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.54,
          "edge_over": 0.0911,
          "edge_under": -0.0911,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.205,
          "ev_under": -0.2023,
          "implied_over": 0.3909,
          "implied_under": 0.6091,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2186,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.3104,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4365,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0275,
          "implied_prob": 0.1403,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2531,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ivinhema",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0641,
          "ev": -0.1955,
          "implied_prob": 0.5701,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4365,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "CRAC"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1189,
          "ev": 0.2186,
          "implied_prob": 0.4251,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0911,
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3909,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1538040,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2186,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2531,
        "draw": 0.3104,
        "home": 0.4365
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.205,
        "implied_prob": 0.3909,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3909,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ivinhema",
        "home": "CRAC"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.118918,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2186,
        "implied_prob": 0.4251,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.544,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1538040,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:59:26.374149+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}