Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.3167,
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      "away_win_prob": 0.3175,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3175,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3167,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.3167,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.15,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.15,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.16,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.16,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.73,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.73,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3658,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3658,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Kimberley Mar del Plata or draw and -2.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Kimberley Mar del Plata"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.27,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "edge": 0.0037,
        "edge_gap": 0.0488,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3625,
        "model_prob": 0.3662,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.7,
          "draw": 31.6,
          "home": 36.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.48
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      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.48,
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        "display_market": "Kimberley Mar del Plata Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.76,
        "market_odds": 2.48,
        "model_odds": 2.73,
        "overround": 11.2,
        "prob_edge": -3.7,
        "value_pct": -9.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 71.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 73.6,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.33,
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            "away": 2,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata or Draw",
            "prob": 68.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata or Alvarado",
            "prob": 68.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Alvarado",
            "prob": 63.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
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        "home_pct": 36.6,
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        "lean_label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata"
      },
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        "home_avg_scored": 0.6,
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        "edge": 8.8,
        "implied_prob": 29.2,
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        "market": "Alvarado Win",
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        "odds": 3.42
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    },
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      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
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      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 36.25,
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          "model_pct": 36.62
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.46,
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          "model_pct": 31.64
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          "closing_implied_pct": 26.29,
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        {
          "closing": 3.42,
          "early": 3.42,
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          "implied_early_pct": 26.29,
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          "text": "+25%+"
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        "featured": true,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": -32.2,
          "text": "-32.2%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.4334,
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          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 43.3,
          "text": "+25%+"
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        "ev": -0.0968,
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          "raw_pct": -9.7,
          "text": "-9.7%"
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        "alert_breadth": "5/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -16.7%",
        "alert_team": "Alvarado",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.79,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 36.2,
        "market_team": "Draw",
        "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
        "model_team": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.33,
          "fair_prob": 36.58,
          "label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
          "market_prob": 36.25,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -5.79,
          "fair_prob": 31.67,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 37.46,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.46,
          "fair_prob": 31.75,
          "label": "Alvarado",
          "market_prob": 26.29,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 21.07,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 27.13,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -21.07,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 72.87,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 18.79,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 35.71,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -18.79,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 64.29,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -5.79,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.67,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.46,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Alvarado"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.79,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 36.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Kimberley Mar del Plata, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Alvarado remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.79,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "Alvarado odds shortened \u2193 -16.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Alvarado, with odds shortening by 16.7%. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Buying interest on Alvarado \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Alvarado, with odds shortening by 16.7%. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Buying interest on Alvarado \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Alvarado has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (5/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.79,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.8 pp (at 36.6%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 4.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 0.33,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.58,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
            "market_prob_pct": 36.25,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.79,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.67,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.46,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 5.46,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.75,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Alvarado",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.29,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Alvarado \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Draw (36.2%).",
          "However, Alvarado has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.7%, 5/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kimberley Mar del Plata, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 Alvarado.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 41.67,
        "closing_odds": 2.4,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 41.67,
        "entry_odds": 2.4,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 5,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "5/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 16.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Alvarado (16.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.60 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Alvarado",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.6,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Alvarado \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Alvarado",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Alvarado \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/12",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.6,
        "pick_team": "Alvarado",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_team_name": "Alvarado",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
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          "Historical model vs market results"
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1962,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1962.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Alvarado",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1530394,
      "goals_away": 1,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 3975,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3975.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Kimberley Mar del Plata",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 134,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
      "league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 17:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "First Half",
      "status_short": "1H",
      "venue_city": "Mar del Plata",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Jose Antonio Valle"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
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          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 3.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.015,
            "ev": -0.0496,
            "implied_prob": 0.2629,
            "model_prob": 0.3174,
            "p_final": 0.2779
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 2.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0239,
            "ev": -0.1583,
            "implied_prob": 0.3746,
            "model_prob": 0.3164,
            "p_final": 0.3507
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4475,
            "best_odd": 2.48,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0017,
            "ev": -0.0968,
            "implied_prob": 0.3625,
            "model_prob": 0.3662,
            "p_final": 0.3642
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.63,
          "edge_no": -0.1879,
          "edge_yes": 0.1879,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.322,
          "ev_yes": 0.4334,
          "implied_no": 0.6429,
          "implied_yes": 0.3571,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.3,
          "edge_over": 0.2107,
          "edge_under": -0.2107,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.687,
          "ev_under": -0.3266,
          "implied_over": 0.2713,
          "implied_under": 0.7287,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.687,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.3164,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3662,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0017,
          "ev": -0.0968,
          "implied_prob": 0.3625,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3662,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Kimberley Mar del Plata"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1879,
          "ev": 0.4334,
          "implied_prob": 0.3571,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2107,
          "ev": 0.687,
          "implied_prob": 0.2713,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1530394,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.687,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3174,
        "draw": 0.3164,
        "home": 0.3662
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.687,
        "implied_prob": 0.2713,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.687,
          "implied_prob": 0.2713,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Alvarado",
        "home": "Kimberley Mar del Plata"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.236203,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4334,
        "implied_prob": 0.3571,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1530394,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:22:18.976917+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}