Deportivo Rincon vs Juventud Unida Univ. Statistics & Analysis

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      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
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        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 70.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Deportivo Rincon or Draw",
            "prob": 73.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Deportivo Rincon or Juventud Unida Univ.",
            "prob": 69.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.",
            "prob": 57.0
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        "pick_key": "1X",
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        "market": "Juventud Unida Univ. Win",
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    },
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          "closing_implied_pct": 65.17,
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          "raw_pct": -30.1,
          "text": "-30.1%"
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        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 13.6,
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        "market_team": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "model_prob_pct": 43.0,
        "model_team": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "steam_subtitle": "",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": -13.58,
          "fair_prob": 42.98,
          "label": "Deportivo Rincon",
          "market_prob": 56.56,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.76,
          "fair_prob": 30.31,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 28.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.82,
          "fair_prob": 26.71,
          "label": "Juventud Unida Univ.",
          "market_prob": 14.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 14.47,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 33.73,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.47,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 66.27,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.56,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 37.74,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.56,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 62.26,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -13.58,
        "fair_prob_pct": 42.98,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "market_prob_pct": 56.56,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Deportivo Rincon"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 13.58,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Deportivo Rincon",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 56.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 43.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Deportivo Rincon, but the market prices them higher (56.6% vs model 43.0%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -13.58,
        "hero_label": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Rincon than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Rincon than the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Rincon than the current fair estimate."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Deportivo Rincon more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Deportivo Rincon (pricing gap 13.6 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 13.58,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.7 pp (at 43.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 12.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 43.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.58,
            "fair_prob_pct": 42.98,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Deportivo Rincon",
            "market_prob_pct": 56.56,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.76,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.31,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.55,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 11.82,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.71,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Juventud Unida Univ.",
            "market_prob_pct": 14.89,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Rincon than the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Rincon (56.6%).",
          "Both lean Deportivo Rincon, but the market prices them higher (56.6% vs model 43.0%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 62.89,
        "closing_odds": 1.59,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 62.89,
        "entry_odds": 1.59,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "4/12",
        "current_odds": 1.8,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.8,
        "pick_team": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "steam_score": 8,
        "steam_team_name": "Deportivo Rincon",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3947,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3947.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Juventud Unida Univ.",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1530388,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 1959,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1959.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Deportivo Rincon",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 134,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
      "league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Rincon de Los Sauces",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1644,
            "best_odd": 6.04,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0195,
            "ev": 0.0171,
            "implied_prob": 0.1489,
            "model_prob": 0.2675,
            "p_final": 0.1684
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2921,
            "best_odd": 3.15,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0052,
            "ev": -0.0844,
            "implied_prob": 0.2855,
            "model_prob": 0.3032,
            "p_final": 0.2907
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4774,
            "best_odd": 1.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.065,
            "ev": -0.2041,
            "implied_prob": 0.5656,
            "model_prob": 0.4294,
            "p_final": 0.5006
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.53,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.52,
          "edge_no": -0.1656,
          "edge_yes": 0.1656,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3008,
          "ev_yes": 0.3684,
          "implied_no": 0.6226,
          "implied_yes": 0.3774,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.75,
          "best_under_odd": 1.44,
          "edge_over": 0.1447,
          "edge_under": -0.1447,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.3255,
          "ev_under": -0.2541,
          "implied_over": 0.3373,
          "implied_under": 0.6627,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3684,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
          "draw_prob": 0.3032,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4294,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.18
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.065,
          "ev": -0.2041,
          "implied_prob": 0.5656,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4294,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Deportivo Rincon"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1656,
          "ev": 0.3684,
          "implied_prob": 0.3774,
          "model_prob": 0.543,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1447,
          "ev": 0.3255,
          "implied_prob": 0.3373,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1530388,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3684,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2675,
        "draw": 0.3032,
        "home": 0.4294
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3255,
        "implied_prob": 0.3373,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3255,
          "implied_prob": 0.3373,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Juventud Unida Univ.",
        "home": "Deportivo Rincon"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.200041,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3684,
        "implied_prob": 0.3774,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.543,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1530388,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:21:15.548226+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}