Be1 NFA vs Tauras Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2951,
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      "fair_odds_away": 2.53,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.22,
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      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Tauras and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Tauras"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.39,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Tauras",
      "confidence": null,
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0933,
        "edge_gap": 0.0846,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3017,
        "model_prob": 0.3949,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 39.5,
          "draw": 29.5,
          "home": 31.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.93
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
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      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.93,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "display_market": "Tauras Win",
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        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.31,
        "market_odds": 2.93,
        "model_odds": 2.53,
        "overround": 13.1,
        "prob_edge": 5.4,
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        "value_rating": "value_bet"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 75.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 70.2,
        "no_prob": 45.7,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.3
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.39,
        "home_expected": 1.21,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "away": 0,
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            "away": 2,
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            "away": 1,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Be1 NFA or Draw",
            "prob": 60.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Be1 NFA or Tauras",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Tauras",
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          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 39.5,
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        "home_pct": 31.0,
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        "lean_label": "Tauras"
      },
      "over_under": {
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 15.8,
        "implied_prob": 34.1,
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        "market": "Tauras Win",
        "model_prob": 39.5,
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Tauras",
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      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Be1 NFA",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 30.17,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 43.36,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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          "raw_pct": -22.9,
          "text": "-22.9%"
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        "alert_breadth_note": "11/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -10.9%",
        "alert_team": "Tauras",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "market_prob_pct": 30.2,
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        "model_prob_pct": 39.5,
        "model_team": "Tauras",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.47,
          "fair_prob": 31.03,
          "label": "Be1 NFA",
          "market_prob": 41.5,
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          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.18,
          "fair_prob": 29.51,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 28.33,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.29,
          "fair_prob": 39.46,
          "label": "Tauras",
          "market_prob": 30.17,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.79,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 59.99,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.79,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 40.01,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.38,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 62.68,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.38,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 37.32,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -10.47,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Be1 NFA",
        "market_prob_pct": 41.5,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Tauras"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.47,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Tauras",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 30.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Tauras, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Be1 NFA remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.47,
        "hero_label": "Be1 NFA",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Tauras odds shortened \u2193 -10.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Tauras, with odds shortening by 10.9%.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Be1 NFA than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Buying interest on Tauras \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Be1 NFA than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Tauras, with odds shortening by 10.9%.",
            "Buying interest on Tauras \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Be1 NFA more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Tauras has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.9%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Tauras."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.47,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.47,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Be1 NFA",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.5,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.18,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.33,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 9.29,
            "fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Tauras",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.17,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Tauras \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Be1 NFA (30.2%).",
          "However, Tauras has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.9%, 11/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tauras, Market \u2192 Be1 NFA, Recent sharp money \u2192 Tauras.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
        "closing_odds": 2.13,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
        "entry_odds": 2.13,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
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        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "11/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 10.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
        "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Tauras (10.9%, 11/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.10 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.45",
          "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
          "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Tauras",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.45"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,6.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.75,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Tauras \u2193 -10.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Tauras",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Tauras \u2193 -10.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/12",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
        "open_odds": 2.75,
        "pick_team": "Tauras",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_team_name": "Tauras",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 11885,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11885.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Tauras",
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      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
      "country_name": "Lithuania",
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      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Lithuania",
      "home_team_id": 16747,
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      "home_team_name": "Be1 NFA",
      "league_country": "Lithuania",
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      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/361.webp",
      "league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t Lithuania",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 15:30:00",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Jonava",
      "venue_name": "Jonavos centrinis stadionas"
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "edge_yes": -0.0838,
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          "implied_yes": 0.6268,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "edge_under": 0.1179,
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          "implied_under": 0.4001,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.18
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "ev": -0.0103,
          "implied_prob": 0.3017,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3949,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Tauras"
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        "btts": {
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          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.4001,
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1529738,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3727,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2947,
        "home": 0.3103
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "risk_band": "medium",
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        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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      "teams": {
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        "home": "Be1 NFA"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
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        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T15:29:20.092248+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}