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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
JFK Ventspils win · JFK Ventspils 1–0 Skanste
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Skanste and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Skanste"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "JFK Ventspils",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0418,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4078,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.18
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.18,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "JFK Ventspils Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.45,
"market_odds": 2.18,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -9.2,
"value_pct": -20.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "JFK Ventspils or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "JFK Ventspils or Skanste",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Skanste",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "JFK Ventspils or Skanste",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "JFK Ventspils"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 15.4,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Skanste",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.43,
"draw": 22.79,
"home": 40.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:55:56",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 15:31:39",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "JFK Ventspils",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.78,
"gap_pp": -4.18,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.79,
"gap_pp": 6.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.43,
"gap_pp": -2.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.09,
"gap_pp": -17.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.91,
"gap_pp": 17.89,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.18,
"early": 2.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.79,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.43,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.09,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.91,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3986,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.33,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.0,
"text": "-33.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3986,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 39.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3986,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10508.74,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3261,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2694,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.6739,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6482
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3013,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3013,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10271.17,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0391,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "JFK Ventspils",
"sort_key": 1790.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"market_team": "JFK Ventspils",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "JFK Ventspils",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3986,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JFK Ventspils at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JFK Ventspils as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JFK Ventspils",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1495,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "JFK Ventspils",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3986,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JFK Ventspils at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JFK Ventspils as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JFK Ventspils",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1495,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: JFK Ventspils 1.33 xG vs Skanste 1.27 \u2192 JFK Ventspils 36.6%",
"Market: JFK Ventspils ~40.8% implied",
"Market Steam: JFK Ventspils +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean JFK Ventspils with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.19,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "JFK Ventspils",
"market_prob": 40.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.66,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Skanste",
"market_prob": 36.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.92,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 67.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.92,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 32.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "JFK Ventspils"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.8%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "JFK Ventspils",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "JFK Ventspils \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: JFK Ventspils 1.33 xG vs Skanste 1.27 \u2192 JFK Ventspils 36.6%",
"Market: JFK Ventspils ~40.8% implied",
"Market Steam: JFK Ventspils +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean JFK Ventspils with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.85,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, JFK Ventspils has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on JFK Ventspils.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, JFK Ventspils has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on JFK Ventspils."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, JFK Ventspils has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on JFK Ventspils."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.8,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.19,
"edge_pp": -4.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "JFK Ventspils",
"market_prob_pct": 40.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.85,
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.66,
"edge_pp": -2.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Skanste",
"market_prob_pct": 36.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on JFK Ventspils.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers JFK Ventspils (40.8%).",
"JFK Ventspils \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.64,
"closing_odds": 3.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
"entry_odds": 3.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "JFK Ventspils",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "JFK Ventspils",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "skanste",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Skanste",
"away_team_id": 16835,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16835.webp",
"away_team_name": "Skanste",
"away_team_public_id": "0IHc2r9qIYosRe",
"away_team_slug": "skanste",
"country_code": "LV",
"country_display_name": "Latvia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lv.svg",
"country_id": 90,
"country_name": "Latvia",
"fixture_id": 1529630,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Latvia",
"home_team_display_name": "JFK Ventspils",
"home_team_id": 21202,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21202.webp",
"home_team_name": "JFK Ventspils",
"home_team_public_id": "15vg1bIJugwfem",
"home_team_slug": "jfk-ventspils",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jfk-ventspils",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_country_display": "Latvia",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t Latvia",
"league_id": 364,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/364.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t Latvia",
"league_public_id": "4Og5ddnqc9wupA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 16:00:00",
"public_id": "4kprBboqhCBtzs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4319,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1393,
"implied_prob": 0.3643,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3643,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4078
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3527
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2692,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.2279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3643,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4078
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2464
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4218,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3643,
"draw": 0.2279,
"home": 0.4078
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3901
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.0723,
"ev": -0.1764,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0401,
"ev": 0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.0927,
"ev": -0.2022,
"implied_prob": 0.4587,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1452,
"alpha_yes": 0.1996,
"best_no_odd": 2.86,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1292,
"edge_yes": -0.1292,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3013,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.038,
"ev_yes": -0.2588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.125,
"implied_no": 0.3258,
"implied_yes": 0.6742,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.6739,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6482
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3448,
"p_final_yes": 0.6482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1796,
"alpha_under": 0.1306,
"best_over_odd": 1.39,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.1803,
"edge_under": 0.1803,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.33,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1403,
"ev_under": 0.3986,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_over": 0.6623,
"implied_over_mf": 0.665,
"implied_under": 0.3377,
"implied_under_mf": 0.335,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6322,
"p_final_under": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3986,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3986,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3986,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3986,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates JFK Ventspils at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies JFK Ventspils as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "JFK Ventspils",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (JFK Ventspils).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1495,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "JFK Ventspils"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.3261,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3448
},
"p_final": 0.3448,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.125,
"implied_prob": 0.6739,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6482
}
},
"edge": 0.1292,
"ev": 0.3013,
"implied_prob": 0.3258,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"market_prob": 0.335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.665,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6322
},
"p_final": 0.3589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1306,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.335,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1803,
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.3377,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529630,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3986,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3013,
"implied_prob": 0.3258,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3013,
"implied_prob": 0.3258,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Skanste",
"home": "JFK Ventspils"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.144532,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.3377,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1495,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.18,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4587155963302752,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529630,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T15:55:57.632369+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho JFK Ventspils & Skanste!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng nhất Latvia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
| 11 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 21 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 21 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 21 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
