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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bắc Ireland Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Bắc Ireland 0–0 Gruzia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e60efc9d49ec16241b1c930fe8c08ea1f80c75273ca909a5f3ec0dd5d2c6ce32",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3456,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2739,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3806,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.94,
"away_win_prob": 0.3456,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3456,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.268,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2739,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2739,
"fair_odds_away": 2.89,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.89,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.65,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.65,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.63,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.85,
"home_win_prob": 0.3806,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3806,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : B\u1eafc Ireland or draw and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland"
},
"away_xg": 1.94,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0096,
"edge_gap": 0.0342,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3897,
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.6,
"draw": 27.4,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "B\u1eafc Ireland Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.57,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 6.9,
"prob_edge": -3.6,
"value_pct": -8.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 85.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 84.3,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.94,
"home_expected": 1.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland or Draw",
"prob": 65.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland or Gruzia",
"prob": 72.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gruzia",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland or Gruzia",
"pick_prob": 72.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.6,
"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 38.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 12.5,
"implied_prob": 30.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Gruzia Win",
"model_prob": 34.6,
"odds": 3.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gruzia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.78,
"draw": 32.25,
"home": 38.97
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 18:40:56",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 18:25:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.97,
"gap_pp": -0.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.25,
"gap_pp": -4.86,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.78,
"gap_pp": 5.82,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.59
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.97,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.25,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.78,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -8.6,
"ev": -0.514,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.85,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.735,
"edge": 0.0346,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"market_prob": 0.3457,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"best_odd": 2.735,
"edge": 0.0346,
"ev": 0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3803
},
"p_final": 0.3803,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 38.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9965,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0401,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0474,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6543,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.6069
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0878,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 108.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.6016,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -60.2,
"text": "-60.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 11129.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0372,
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1353,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.5294
},
"p_final": 0.4669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 30.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5738,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0038,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.4669
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5524,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -55.2,
"text": "-55.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.6104,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 61.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.6104,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10549.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0749,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0129,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"sort_key": 1796.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"alert_team": "Gruzia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.78,
"hero_label": "Gruzia",
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"market_team": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"model_prob_pct": 38.1,
"model_team": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u1eafc Ireland at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u1eafc Ireland as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0749,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.78,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.94,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.85,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.94,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.94 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 126.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"steam_team": "Gruzia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u1eafc Ireland at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u1eafc Ireland as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0749,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u1eafc Ireland 1.85 xG vs Gruzia 1.94 \u2192 B\u1eafc Ireland 38.1%",
"Market: B\u1eafc Ireland ~39.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Gruzia odds \u2191 +126.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean B\u1eafc Ireland with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob": 38.06,
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob": 38.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.86,
"fair_prob": 27.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob": 34.56,
"label": "Gruzia",
"market_prob": 28.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 38.43,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -38.33,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.17,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.17,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.56,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Gruzia",
"market_prob_pct": 28.78,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Gruzia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Gruzia\u0027s win probability at 34.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.8%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "B\u1eafc Ireland \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 95,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: B\u1eafc Ireland 1.85 xG vs Gruzia 1.94 \u2192 B\u1eafc Ireland 38.1%",
"Market: B\u1eafc Ireland ~39.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Gruzia odds \u2191 +126.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean B\u1eafc Ireland with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.78,
"hero_label": "Gruzia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Gruzia odds lengthened \u2191 +126.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gruzia.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gruzia.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Gruzia.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gruzia."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Gruzia.",
"Recent line movement on Gruzia (\u2191 +126.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Gruzia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.5,
"max_prob_pct": 38.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Gruzia",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.8,
"lead": "The model rates Gruzia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.91,
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob_pct": 38.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.86,
"edge_pp": -4.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.78,
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.56,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gruzia",
"market_prob_pct": 28.78,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gruzia.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers B\u1eafc Ireland (39.0%).",
"However, Gruzia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +126.7%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"B\u1eafc Ireland \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.77,
"closing_odds": 3.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.77,
"entry_odds": 3.25,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 126.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 126.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Gruzia together (126.7% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 126.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.44",
"2.47",
"1.50"
],
"display": "3.46 \u2192 1.50 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 4m",
"pick_team": "Gruzia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.46"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.5,
3.44,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,0.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Gruzia odds \u2191 +126.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Gruzia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Gruzia odds \u2191 +126.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"open_odds": 1.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Gruzia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +126.7%",
"open_odds": 1.5,
"pick_team": "Gruzia",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Gruzia",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "georgia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Gruzia",
"away_team_id": 1104,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1104.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gruzia",
"away_team_public_id": "3lEkPuoxeEejLP",
"away_team_slug": "georgia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528947,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"home_team_id": 771,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/771.webp",
"home_team_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"home_team_public_id": "48ddgLsbGUUZul",
"home_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5GZ4phS1MYNtR1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Belfast",
"venue_name": "Windsor Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2738,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.2878,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2878,
"draw": 0.3225,
"home": 0.3897
},
"model_prob": 0.3459,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4172,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0203,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.3225,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2878,
"draw": 0.3225,
"home": 0.3897
},
"model_prob": 0.2739,
"p_final": 0.3022
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4435,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2878,
"draw": 0.3225,
"home": 0.3897
},
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"p_final": 0.3855
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3459
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0709,
"ev": -0.2057,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.2739
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3801
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1353,
"alpha_yes": 0.123,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.3017,
"edge_yes": 0.3017,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5524,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1424,
"ev_yes": 0.6104,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0038,
"implied_no": 0.5697,
"implied_yes": 0.4303,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1353,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.5294
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.4669
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5294,
"p_final_yes": 0.4669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.09,
"alpha_under": 0.1238,
"best_over_odd": 2.86,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.735,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.445,
"edge_over": 0.3843,
"edge_under": -0.3833,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0878,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0401,
"ev_under": -0.6016,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"implied_over": 0.3457,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3457,
"implied_under": 0.6543,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6543,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"best_odd": 2.735,
"edge": 0.0346,
"ev": 0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3803
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0474,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6543,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.6069
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3803,
"p_final_under": 0.6069,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0878,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates B\u1eafc Ireland at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies B\u1eafc Ireland as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (B\u1eafc Ireland).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0749,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.09 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.09
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2739,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3801,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.09
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0042,
"ev": -0.0749,
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0372,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1353,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.5294
},
"p_final": 0.4669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0038,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.4669
}
},
"edge": 0.3017,
"ev": 0.6104,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.735,
"edge": 0.0346,
"market_prob": 0.3457,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"best_odd": 2.735,
"edge": 0.0346,
"ev": 0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3803
},
"p_final": 0.3803,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0401,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.0474,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6543,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.3843,
"ev": 1.0878,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528947,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3459,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.3801
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.6104,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gruzia",
"home": "B\u1eafc Ireland"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0878,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3801,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528947,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:11:02.494066+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bắc Ireland & Gruzia!
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Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
