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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Ukraine Bắc Ireland ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bắc Ireland win · Ukraine 0–3 Bắc Ireland
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "da847d3468ee8d9137f4141744bc98a721b8acc2f4ba6305ce89639c9dc67cfe",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3266,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2696,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4038,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.01,
"away_win_prob": 0.3266,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3266,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.27,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2696,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2696,
"fair_odds_away": 3.06,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.06,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.71,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.71,
"fair_odds_home": 2.48,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.48,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.78,
"home_win_prob": 0.4038,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4038,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or B\u1eafc Ireland and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland"
},
"away_xg": 2.01,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ukraine",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.075,
"edge_gap": 0.0765,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4784,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.7,
"draw": 27.0,
"home": 40.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ukraine Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.09,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 2.48,
"overround": 3.5,
"prob_edge": -9.2,
"value_pct": -18.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 86.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 83.1,
"no_prob": 27.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.01,
"home_expected": 1.78,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ukraine or Draw",
"prob": 67.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ukraine or B\u1eafc Ireland",
"prob": 73.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or B\u1eafc Ireland",
"prob": 59.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ukraine or B\u1eafc Ireland",
"pick_prob": 73.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.7,
"draw_pct": 27.0,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ukraine"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 45.8,
"implied_prob": 22.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "B\u1eafc Ireland Win",
"model_prob": 32.7,
"odds": 4.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.67,
"draw": 30.49,
"home": 47.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:45:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:14:55",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ukraine",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.84,
"gap_pp": -7.5,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.34
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.49,
"gap_pp": -3.52,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.67,
"gap_pp": 11.02,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.51,
"gap_pp": 38.49,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.49,
"gap_pp": -38.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.49,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.46,
"early": 4.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.67,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.79,
"early": 2.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.51,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.47,
"early": 1.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.49,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 38.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.9,
"ev": 0.296,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 16.0,
"market_prob": 0.0625,
"market_prob_pct": 6.2,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.78,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"market_prob": 0.3559,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3913
},
"p_final": 0.3913,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 37.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9418,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1299,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5956
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0367,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 103.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5827,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -58.3,
"text": "-58.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.0367,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 11083.03,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1313,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"p_final": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 31.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6279,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0035,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4469
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5626,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -56.3,
"text": "-56.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.679,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 67.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.679,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.0,
"sort_key": 10611.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0941,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.4,
"text": "-9.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0485,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ukraine",
"sort_key": 5238.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Ukraine",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.99,
"hero_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"market_team": "Ukraine",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Ukraine",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ukraine at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ukraine as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ukraine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.99,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.01,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.78,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.01,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.78 \u00b7 Away xG 2.01 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +49%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Ukraine",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ukraine at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ukraine as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ukraine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ukraine 1.78 xG vs B\u1eafc Ireland 2.01 \u2192 Ukraine 40.4%",
"Market: Ukraine ~47.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ukraine odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ukraine, but the market has moved away from Ukraine.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob": 40.38,
"label": "Ukraine",
"market_prob": 47.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob": 26.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob": 32.66,
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob": 21.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 37.23,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -37.13,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 31.4,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -31.4,
"fair_prob": 27.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.66,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Ukraine"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates B\u1eafc Ireland\u0027s win probability at 32.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ukraine",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ukraine 1.78 xG vs B\u1eafc Ireland 2.01 \u2192 Ukraine 40.4%",
"Market: Ukraine ~47.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ukraine odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ukraine, but the market has moved away from Ukraine.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.99,
"hero_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ukraine odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ukraine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on B\u1eafc Ireland.",
"note": "Drift away from Ukraine \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on B\u1eafc Ireland.",
"However, Ukraine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ukraine \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors B\u1eafc Ireland more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Ukraine has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Ukraine."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.7 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.7,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.0,
"lead": "The model rates B\u1eafc Ireland considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.46,
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ukraine",
"market_prob_pct": 47.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.53,
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.49,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.99,
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.66,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ukraine \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ukraine (47.8%).",
"Ukraine odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ukraine, Market \u2192 Ukraine, while Ukraine odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.42,
"closing_odds": 4.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.42,
"entry_odds": 4.46,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ukraine (8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.02",
"1.91",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.05 \u2192 1.78 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 14m",
"pick_team": "Ukraine",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.02,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Ukraine",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ukraine",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ukraine while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ukraine",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Ukraine",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Ukraine",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"away_team_id": 771,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/771.webp",
"away_team_name": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"away_team_public_id": "48ddgLsbGUUZul",
"away_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528927,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Ukraine",
"home_team_id": 772,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/772.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ukraine",
"home_team_public_id": "2JsxhTIxz7ABUt",
"home_team_slug": "ukraine",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ukraine",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5FPgklrhnp6rv4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Trnava",
"venue_name": "\u0160tadi\u00f3n Antona Malatinsk\u00e9ho"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.3269,
"p_final": 0.2351
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2842,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.2697,
"p_final": 0.2949
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3994,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"p_final": 0.4485
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.1027,
"ev": 0.4582,
"implied_prob": 0.2242,
"model_prob": 0.3269
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1452,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.2697
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.0916,
"ev": -0.1851,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.4034
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1313,
"alpha_yes": 0.0955,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.314,
"edge_yes": 0.314,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5626,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1357,
"ev_yes": 0.679,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0035,
"implied_no": 0.584,
"implied_yes": 0.416,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1313,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4469
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5419,
"p_final_yes": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0945,
"alpha_under": 0.1299,
"best_over_odd": 2.79,
"best_under_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.47,
"edge_over": 0.3723,
"edge_under": -0.3713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0367,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0408,
"ev_under": -0.5827,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"implied_over": 0.3577,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3559,
"implied_under": 0.6423,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6441,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3913
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1299,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5956
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3913,
"p_final_under": 0.5956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.0367,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0367,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0367,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ukraine at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ukraine as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ukraine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ukraine, but the model still strongly favours Ukraine.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.73,
"draw_prob": 0.2697,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4034,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3269,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4034,
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},
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
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}
},
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"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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},
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"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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{
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],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "B\u1eafc Ireland",
"home": "Ukraine"
},
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"side": "over",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528927,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T19:20:52.652585+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Ukraine & Bắc Ireland!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ý | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Pháp | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bỉ | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Ý | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bỉ | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
