Volta Redonda vs Confiança Statistics & Analysis

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      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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      "fair_odds_home": 2.7,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Volta Redonda or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Volta Redonda"
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    "away_xg": 1.26,
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          "away": 33.3,
          "draw": 29.6,
          "home": 37.1
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        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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        {
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          "odd": 2.02
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        "best_odds": 2.02,
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        "label": "Home",
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        "overround": 9.0,
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        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 71.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 73.8,
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        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
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            "away": 0,
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Volta Redonda or Draw",
            "prob": 66.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Volta Redonda or Confian\u00e7a",
            "prob": 70.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Confian\u00e7a",
            "prob": 62.9
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        "pick_key": "12",
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      "match_winner": {
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        "implied_prob": 22.6,
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        "market": "Confian\u00e7a Win",
        "model_prob": 33.3,
        "odds": 4.42
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    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Confian\u00e7a",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 65.21,
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        "label": "1-1",
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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          "raw_pct": -24.0,
          "text": "-24.0%"
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        "alert_breadth": "11/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -11.9%",
        "alert_team": "Confian\u00e7a",
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        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -4.21,
          "fair_prob": 29.63,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 12.56,
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "edge_pp": 12.72,
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          "market_prob": 35.48,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
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          "edge_pp": -12.72,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
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          "market_prob": 64.52,
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          "outcome": "under"
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          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 41.53,
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          "outcome": "yes"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -12.97,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 58.47,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 12.56,
        "fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "market_prob_pct": 20.75,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Confian\u00e7a"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 12.56,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Volta Redonda",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 45.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Volta Redonda, but the market prices them higher (45.4% vs model 37.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 12.56,
        "hero_label": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Confian\u00e7a odds shortened \u2193 -11.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Confian\u00e7a.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Confian\u00e7a.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Confian\u00e7a.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Confian\u00e7a."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Confian\u00e7a more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Confian\u00e7a (\u2193 -11.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Confian\u00e7a."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
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        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -8.34,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Volta Redonda",
            "market_prob_pct": 45.4,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.21,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.84,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.56,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Confian\u00e7a",
            "market_prob_pct": 20.75,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Confian\u00e7a.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Volta Redonda (45.4%).",
          "However, Confian\u00e7a has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.9%, 11/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Volta Redonda, Market \u2192 Volta Redonda, Recent sharp money \u2192 Confian\u00e7a.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 22.62,
        "closing_odds": 4.42,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 22.62,
        "entry_odds": 4.42,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Confian\u00e7a (11.9%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "5.10 \u2192 3.49 \u2192 3.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 63h 53m",
          "pick_team": "Confian\u00e7a",
          "points": [
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              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "5.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.49"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,5.5 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.2,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Confian\u00e7a \u2193 -11.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Confian\u00e7a \u2193 -11.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "current_odds": 3.7,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -11.9%",
        "open_odds": 4.2,
        "pick_team": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_team_name": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
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      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 7772,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7772.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Confian\u00e7a",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1526853,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 7814,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7814.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Volta Redonda",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 75,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/75.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie C",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 22:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Volta Redonda",
      "venue_name": "Raulino de Oliveira"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.2075,
            "model_prob": 0.3335,
            "p_final": 0.2279
          },
          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "p_final": 0.3206
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "model_prob": 0.3705,
            "p_final": 0.4212
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          "edge_no": -0.1297,
          "edge_yes": 0.1297,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_yes": 0.2971,
          "implied_no": 0.5847,
          "implied_yes": 0.4153,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.45,
          "edge_over": 0.1272,
          "edge_under": -0.1272,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.3548,
          "implied_under": 0.6452,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.296,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
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          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.08
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0329,
          "ev": -0.1492,
          "implied_prob": 0.454,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3705,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Volta Redonda"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.4153,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1526853,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2971,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.296,
        "home": 0.3705
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Confian\u00e7a",
        "home": "Volta Redonda"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1526853,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T22:29:06.498294+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}