Ferroviária vs Barra Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3103,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.457,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2951,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.22,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.53,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3946,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Ferrovi\u00e1ria or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.21,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0307,
        "edge_gap": 0.0846,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4257,
        "model_prob": 0.3949,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.0,
          "draw": 29.5,
          "home": 39.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.1
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.1,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.35,
        "market_odds": 2.1,
        "model_odds": 2.53,
        "overround": 11.9,
        "prob_edge": -8.1,
        "value_pct": -17.0,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 9,
        "away_score_rate": 70.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 9,
        "home_score_rate": 75.1,
        "no_prob": 45.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.21,
        "home_expected": 1.39,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.7
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria or Draw",
            "prob": 69.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria or Barra",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Barra",
            "prob": 60.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria or Barra",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 31.0,
        "draw_pct": 29.5,
        "home_pct": 39.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "edge": 34.2,
        "implied_prob": 23.1,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Barra Win",
        "model_prob": 31.0,
        "odds": 4.33
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Barra",
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      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 42.57,
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          "model_pct": 39.49
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.79,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.47
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.64,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 33.58,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 66.42,
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          "closing": 2.1,
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          "closing": 2.43,
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          "implied_early_pct": 66.42,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.39,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2368,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -23.7,
          "text": "-23.7%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.3575,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 35.8,
          "text": "+25%+"
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        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.3
      },
      {
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          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 35.0,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2644,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -26.4,
          "text": "-26.4%"
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          "raw_pct": -3.0,
          "text": "-3.0%"
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        "model_prob": 0.3949,
        "side_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
        "sort_key": 1792.475,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "9/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -16.9%",
        "alert_team": "Barra",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 10.39,
        "hero_label": "Barra",
        "market_prob_pct": 42.6,
        "market_team": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.5,
        "model_team": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 84,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.11,
          "fair_prob": 39.46,
          "label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
          "market_prob": 42.57,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.28,
          "fair_prob": 29.51,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 36.79,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.39,
          "fair_prob": 31.03,
          "label": "Barra",
          "market_prob": 20.64,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 14.28,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 33.92,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.28,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 66.08,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.12,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 41.18,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.12,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 58.82,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 10.39,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Barra",
        "market_prob_pct": 20.64,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Barra"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.39,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 42.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Both lean Ferrovi\u00e1ria, but the market prices them higher (42.6% vs model 39.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 10.39,
        "hero_label": "Barra",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Barra odds shortened \u2193 -16.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barra.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barra.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Barra.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barra."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Barra more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Barra (\u2193 -16.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Barra."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.39,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria",
            "market_prob_pct": 42.57,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.28,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 36.79,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 10.39,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Barra",
            "market_prob_pct": 20.64,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Barra.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ferrovi\u00e1ria (42.6%).",
          "However, Barra has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.9%, 9/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ferrovi\u00e1ria, Market \u2192 Ferrovi\u00e1ria, Recent sharp money \u2192 Barra.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 23.09,
        "closing_odds": 4.33,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
        "entry_odds": 4.33,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 9,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.6,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 16.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 38m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "9/12 books synchronized on Barra (16.9% steam, score 84) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.70 \u2192 3.32 \u2192 3.60",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 38m",
          "pick_team": "Barra",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.32"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.60"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Barra \u2193 -16.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Barra",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Barra \u2193 -16.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 84,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/12",
        "current_odds": 3.6,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
        "open_odds": 4.33,
        "pick_team": "Barra",
        "steam_score": 84,
        "steam_team_name": "Barra",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 10.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "under_prob": 0.518,
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        "type": "balanced",
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Ferrovi\u00e1ria"
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        "btts": {
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          "value_side": "yes"
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          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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        "clear_edge": true,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "teams": {
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T23:29:05.512168+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}