Criciuma U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.4713,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4713,
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      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Palmeiras U20"
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          "draw": 27.2,
          "home": 25.6
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        {
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        "overround": 6.4,
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        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 15,
        "away_score_rate": 76.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 15,
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        ],
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      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Criciuma U20 or Draw",
            "prob": 52.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Criciuma U20 or Palmeiras U20",
            "prob": 72.7
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            "key": "X2",
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        "lean_label": "Palmeiras U20"
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        "label": "Draw",
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        "model_prob": 27.2,
        "odds": 4.44
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
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      "home_team": "Criciuma U20",
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          "raw_pct": 14.0,
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        "alert_breadth": "10/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +5.6%",
        "alert_team": "Criciuma U20",
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        "model_prob_pct": 47.1,
        "model_team": "Palmeiras U20",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 51,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "fair_prob": 25.64,
          "label": "Criciuma U20",
          "market_prob": 21.51,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.06,
          "fair_prob": 27.23,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 21.17,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.19,
          "fair_prob": 47.13,
          "label": "Palmeiras U20",
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          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -8.12,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 56.32,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 8.12,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 43.68,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -1.69,
          "fair_prob": 53.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 55.49,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.69,
          "fair_prob": 46.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 44.51,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -10.19,
        "fair_prob_pct": 47.13,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Palmeiras U20",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.32,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Criciuma U20"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 10.19,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Palmeiras U20",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 57.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 47.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Palmeiras U20, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -10.19,
        "hero_label": "Palmeiras U20",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Criciuma U20 odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Criciuma U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras U20 than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Criciuma U20 \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Palmeiras U20 than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Criciuma U20 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Criciuma U20 \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Palmeiras U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Criciuma U20 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/11) supports the current market view on Criciuma U20."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 10.19,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.9 pp (at 47.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 19.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 47.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.13,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Criciuma U20",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.51,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.06,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.23,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.17,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.19,
            "fair_prob_pct": 47.13,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Palmeiras U20",
            "market_prob_pct": 57.32,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Criciuma U20 \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Palmeiras U20 (57.3%).",
          "However, Criciuma U20 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +5.6%, 10/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Palmeiras U20, Market \u2192 Palmeiras U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 Criciuma U20.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 60.98,
        "closing_odds": 1.64,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 60.98,
        "entry_odds": 1.64,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
        "move_pct_abs": 5.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
        "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Pinnacle led repricing on Criciuma U20 (5.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.75 \u2192 3.50 \u2192 4.75",
          "move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
          "move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 7h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Criciuma U20",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.75"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.75"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,11.8 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/11 sportsbooks on Criciuma U20",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Criciuma U20",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 51,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/11",
        "current_odds": 4.75,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
        "open_odds": 4.5,
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        "steam_score": 51,
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}