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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Neman Neman ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Neman win · Neman 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6a6c085dffc2120341b73c02fa597926bb011805253b650e1803c4b20acf3319",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Neman or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Neman"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Neman",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1441,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.83,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Neman Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.0,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -19.1,
"value_pct": -34.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Neman or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Neman or Torpedo Zhodino",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Torpedo Zhodino",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Neman or Torpedo Zhodino",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Neman"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 47.1,
"implied_prob": 23.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Torpedo Zhodino Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 4.24
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.58,
"draw": 28.42,
"home": 50.0
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 16:59:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 16:30:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Neman",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -14.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.42,
"gap_pp": 1.26,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.58,
"gap_pp": 13.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.08,
"gap_pp": 6.12,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.92,
"gap_pp": -6.12,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.42,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.24,
"early": 4.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.1,
"ev": -0.244,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0158,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4651,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5175
},
"p_final": 0.4809,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0846,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4809
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.09,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10231.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0103,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4186,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0349,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4289
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0845,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0349,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0811,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5672
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.5,
"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10076.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.209,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0045,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Neman",
"sort_key": 5203.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"alert_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.36,
"hero_label": "Neman",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"market_team": "Neman",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Neman",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4725,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Neman at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Neman as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Neman",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Neman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1525981 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.209,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.36,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"steam_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4725,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Neman at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Neman as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Neman",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Neman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1525981 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.209,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Neman 1.31 xG vs Torpedo Zhodino 1.29 \u2192 Neman 35.6%",
"Market: Neman ~50.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Torpedo Zhodino odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Neman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.36,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Neman",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.23,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.12,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"market_prob": 21.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.44,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.9,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.9,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Neman",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Torpedo Zhodino"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Neman\u0027s win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Neman",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Neman \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Neman 1.31 xG vs Torpedo Zhodino 1.29 \u2192 Neman 35.6%",
"Market: Neman ~50.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Torpedo Zhodino odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Neman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.36,
"hero_label": "Neman",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Torpedo Zhodino odds lengthened \u2191 +4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Torpedo Zhodino has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Neman than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Torpedo Zhodino \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Neman than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Torpedo Zhodino has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Torpedo Zhodino \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Neman more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Torpedo Zhodino has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Neman",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Neman higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.36,
"edge_pp": -14.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Neman",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.23,
"edge_pp": 1.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.12,
"edge_pp": 13.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"market_prob_pct": 21.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Torpedo Zhodino \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Neman (50.0%).",
"Torpedo Zhodino odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.2%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Neman \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +45.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 45.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.24,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 28h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Torpedo Zhodino (4.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.24",
"4.16",
"4.07"
],
"display": "4.25 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 4.24",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 28h 16m",
"pick_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.24"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.07,
4.24
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.07"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.07"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.24"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.24"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.07,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.24,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 4.07,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 4.24,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 4.07,
"pick_team": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "torpedo-zhodino",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"away_team_id": 385,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/385.webp",
"away_team_name": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"away_team_public_id": "4pOE2ww8XpjuJl",
"away_team_slug": "torpedo-zhodino",
"country_code": "BY",
"country_display_name": "Belarus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/by.svg",
"country_id": 15,
"country_name": "Belarus",
"fixture_id": 1525981,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belarus",
"home_team_display_name": "Neman",
"home_team_id": 387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/387.webp",
"home_team_name": "Neman",
"home_team_public_id": "5a1uUJA4yrpWI5",
"home_team_slug": "neman",
"ht.home_team_slug": "neman",
"league_country": "Belarus",
"league_country_display": "Belarus",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ea1ng Belarus",
"league_id": 116,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/116.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ea1ng Belarus",
"league_public_id": "3aCDHUN4ApS5sj",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 17:00:00",
"public_id": "0PZRCueyEahlDn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Grodno",
"venue_name": "Stadion Neman"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 4.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0045,
"implied_prob": 0.2158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2158,
"draw": 0.2842,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2369
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2943,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.2842,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2158,
"draw": 0.2842,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2879
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4703,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0678,
"ev": -0.209,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2158,
"draw": 0.2842,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4323
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.24,
"edge": 0.1114,
"ev": 0.4725,
"implied_prob": 0.2358,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1905,
"ev": -0.3486,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2178,
"alpha_yes": 0.198,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.079,
"edge_yes": 0.079,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1047,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.043,
"implied_no": 0.534,
"implied_yes": 0.466,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5175
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4809
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5175,
"p_final_yes": 0.4809,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1629,
"alpha_under": 0.224,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0644,
"edge_under": -0.0644,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0349,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0811,
"implied_over": 0.4176,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4186,
"implied_under": 0.5824,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5814,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0349,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4289
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0811,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5672
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4289,
"p_final_under": 0.5672,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4725,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.09,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.09,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4725,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Neman at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Neman as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Neman",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Neman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1525981 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Neman).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.209,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0678,
"ev": -0.209,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Neman"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4651,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2178,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0174,
"ev": -0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5175
},
"p_final": 0.4809,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.198,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4809
}
},
"edge": 0.079,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0103,
"market_prob": 0.4186,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0349,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4289
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0349,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.0811,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5672
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0644,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4176,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1525981,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.09,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Torpedo Zhodino",
"home": "Neman"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.209,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3487,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1525981,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T16:59:13.320490+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Neman & Torpedo Zhodino!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải Ngoại Hạng Belarus — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 44 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | Neman | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 14 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo Brest | 23 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 40 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 21 | 37 | 16 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 | Isloch Minsk Raion | 22 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 39 |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 23 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 23 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Torpedo Zhodino | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Neman | 22 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 37 |
| 10 | Baranovichi | 23 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 25 |
| 11 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 23 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Belshina Bobruisk | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 20 | 36 | -16 | 16 |
| 15 | Naftan | 23 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 14 |
| 16 | BATE Borisov | 22 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
