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Sporting Jax 2 vs Inter Gainesville Statistics & Analysis

Jun 13, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Sporting Jax 2 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1510233

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Sporting Jax 2 0–0 Inter Gainesville
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Vẽ tranh (1X2),Dưới 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Dưới 2,5 bàn khoảng 6.8 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Sporting Jax 2 (1X2) 40.7 43.2 -2.5
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 28.3 25.3 +3.0
Inter Gainesville (1X2) 31.0 31.6 -0.5
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 55.0 -6.8
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 45.0 +6.8
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 51.8% cho Dưới 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 45.0%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 6.8 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Sporting Jax 2 (1X2) 2.06 2.06 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Inter Gainesville (1X2) 2.82 2.82 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.67 1.67 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.04 2.04 0.0

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View technical JSON
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +10.2%",
        "alert_team": "Inter Gainesville",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 3.0,
        "has_alert": true,
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        "show": true,
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        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": -2.46,
          "fair_prob": 40.72,
          "label": "Sporting Jax 2",
          "market_prob": 43.18,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.01,
          "fair_prob": 28.28,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.27,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.55,
          "fair_prob": 31.0,
          "label": "Inter Gainesville",
          "market_prob": 31.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
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          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 54.97,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.77,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 45.03,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.79,
          "fair_prob": 54.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 58.09,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.79,
          "fair_prob": 45.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 41.91,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 3.01,
        "fair_prob_pct": 28.28,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 25.27,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Inter Gainesville"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.01,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Sporting Jax 2",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 43.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Sporting Jax 2, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Inter Gainesville remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.01,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "Inter Gainesville odds lengthened \u2191 +10.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Inter Gainesville has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Inter Gainesville \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Inter Gainesville has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Inter Gainesville \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Inter Gainesville has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (8/11) supports the current market view on Inter Gainesville."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 3.01,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.7 pp (at 40.7%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 9.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.46,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.72,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sporting Jax 2",
            "market_prob_pct": 43.18,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.01,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.28,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.27,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.55,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.0,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Inter Gainesville",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.55,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Inter Gainesville \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.2% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Sporting Jax 2 (43.2%).",
          "However, Inter Gainesville has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +10.2%, 8/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sporting Jax 2, Market \u2192 Sporting Jax 2, Recent sharp money \u2192 Inter Gainesville.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
        "closing_odds": 3.52,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 28.41,
        "entry_odds": 3.52,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
        "move_pct_abs": 10.2,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Inter Gainesville (10.2%, 8/11) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.90 \u2192 2.42 \u2192 2.70",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Inter Gainesville",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.42"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.70"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.45,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Inter Gainesville \u2191 +10.2% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Inter Gainesville",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Inter Gainesville \u2191 +10.2% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
        "open_odds": 2.45,
        "pick_team": "Inter Gainesville",
        "steam_score": 60,
        "steam_team_name": "Inter Gainesville",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 23119,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23119.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Inter Gainesville",
      "country_code": "US",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
      "country_name": "USA",
      "fixture_id": 1524915,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": null,
      "home_team_id": 27523,
      "home_team_logo": null,
      "home_team_name": "Sporting Jax 2",
      "league_country": "USA",
      "league_id": 256,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/256.webp",
      "league_name": "USL League Two",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4463,
            "best_odd": 2.82,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0024,
            "ev": -0.1172,
            "implied_prob": 0.3155,
            "model_prob": 0.31,
            "p_final": 0.313
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2864,
            "best_odd": 3.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0086,
            "ev": -0.08,
            "implied_prob": 0.2527,
            "model_prob": 0.2829,
            "p_final": 0.2614
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4333,
            "best_odd": 2.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0107,
            "ev": -0.1325,
            "implied_prob": 0.4318,
            "model_prob": 0.4071,
            "p_final": 0.4211
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.2,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.63,
          "edge_no": 0.0379,
          "edge_yes": -0.0379,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0054,
          "ev_yes": -0.1149,
          "implied_no": 0.4191,
          "implied_yes": 0.5809,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.7,
          "best_under_odd": 2.1,
          "edge_over": -0.0677,
          "edge_under": 0.0677,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1806,
          "ev_under": 0.0878,
          "implied_over": 0.5497,
          "implied_under": 0.4503,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
          "draw_prob": 0.2829,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4071,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0107,
          "ev": -0.1325,
          "implied_prob": 0.4318,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4071,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Sporting Jax 2"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0379,
          "ev": 0.0054,
          "implied_prob": 0.4191,
          "model_prob": 0.457,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0677,
          "ev": 0.0878,
          "implied_prob": 0.4503,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1524915,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.31,
        "draw": 0.2829,
        "home": 0.4071
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Inter Gainesville",
        "home": "Sporting Jax 2"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.031836,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0878,
        "implied_prob": 0.4503,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1524915,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T22:59:28.548317+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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