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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Shenyang Urban Shenyang Urban ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.54
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Shenyang Urban win · Shenyang Urban 3–1 Shanghai Shenhua
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.79,
"away_win_prob": 0.3712,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.289,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.711,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2414,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.69,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.14,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.58,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.83,
"home_win_prob": 0.3874,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.701,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.299
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Shanghai Shenhua",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Shanghai Shenhua"
},
"away_xg": 1.79,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shenyang Urban",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2089,
"edge_gap": 0.0158,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1783,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 24.1,
"home": 38.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.37
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.37,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Shenyang Urban Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 5.61,
"market_odds": 5.37,
"model_odds": 2.58,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": 20.1,
"value_pct": 108.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 83.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 84.0,
"no_prob": 28.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 71.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 71.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.79,
"home_expected": 1.83,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.8
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 4.9
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shenyang Urban or Draw",
"prob": 62.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shenyang Urban or Shanghai Shenhua",
"prob": 75.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Shanghai Shenhua",
"prob": 61.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Shenyang Urban or Shanghai Shenhua",
"pick_prob": 75.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 24.1,
"home_pct": 38.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shenyang Urban"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.62,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 70.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 70.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.62,
"under_prob": 29.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 108.1,
"implied_prob": 18.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Shenyang Urban Win",
"model_prob": 38.8,
"odds": 5.37
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 62.18,
"draw": 19.99,
"home": 17.83
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 11:34:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 11:04:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 5.14,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.83,
"gap_pp": 20.89,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.99,
"gap_pp": 4.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.13
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.18,
"gap_pp": -25.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.14
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.2,
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 70.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.8,
"gap_pp": -0.9,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 29.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 5.37,
"early": 4.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.83,
"implied_delta_pp": -4.82,
"implied_early_pct": 22.65,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.79,
"early": 4.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.99,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.31,
"implied_early_pct": 20.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 5.14,
"implied_early_pct": 57.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.38,
"early": 1.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.92,
"implied_early_pct": 66.28,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.1,
"early": 2.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.8,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.92,
"implied_early_pct": 33.72,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.83,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.2,
"text": "+11.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1116,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.2,
"text": "+11.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0798,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+108.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Shenyang Urban",
"sort_key": 10250.44,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 70.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 29.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 28.9,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 71.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"alert_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 25.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.06,
"hero_label": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"market_team": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010794999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shenyang Urban at 38.7% vs market 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shenyang Urban as the stronger side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shenyang Urban",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.186219739292365,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0798,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+108.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "13/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 25.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 25.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.79,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 36.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.83,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.83,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.83 \u00b7 Away xG 1.79 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +36%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"steam_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010794999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shenyang Urban at 38.7% vs market 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shenyang Urban as the stronger side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shenyang Urban",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.186219739292365,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0798,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+108.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shenyang Urban 1.83 xG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 \u2192 Shenyang Urban 38.7%",
"Market: Shanghai Shenhua ~17.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Shenyang Urban odds \u2191 +23.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Shenyang Urban, but the market has moved away from Shenyang Urban.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 20.91,
"fair_prob": 38.74,
"label": "Shenyang Urban",
"market_prob": 17.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob": 24.14,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.06,
"fair_prob": 37.12,
"label": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"market_prob": 62.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 70.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 71.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -25.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.12,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"market_prob_pct": 62.18,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Shenyang Urban"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Shanghai Shenhua\u0027s win probability at 62.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 25.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 25.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Shenyang Urban",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Shenyang Urban 1.83 xG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.79 \u2192 Shenyang Urban 38.7%",
"Market: Shanghai Shenhua ~17.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Shenyang Urban odds \u2191 +23.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Shenyang Urban, but the market has moved away from Shenyang Urban.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -25.06,
"hero_label": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Shenyang Urban odds lengthened \u2191 +23.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 25.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.6 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"largest_gap_pp": -25.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Shanghai Shenhua higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 25.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 20.91,
"edge_pp": 20.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shenyang Urban",
"market_prob_pct": 17.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.15,
"edge_pp": 4.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -25.06,
"edge_pp": -25.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.12,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"market_prob_pct": 62.18,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Shanghai Shenhua (17.8%).",
"However, Shenyang Urban has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +23.5%, 13/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Shenyang Urban, Market \u2192 Shanghai Shenhua, while Shenyang Urban odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.94,
"closing_odds": 1.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.94,
"entry_odds": 1.54,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +49.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 49.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 23.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/14 books lengthened Shenyang Urban together (23.5% drift, score 75) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.37",
"4.38",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 15m",
"pick_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
5.37,
4.23,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,10.4 56.0,10.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.37"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Shenyang Urban odds \u2191 +23.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Shenyang Urban odds \u2191 +23.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Shenyang Urban while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Shenyang Urban",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +23.5%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Shenyang Urban",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Shenyang Urban",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 25.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"away_team_id": 833,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/833.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"away_team_slug": "shanghai-shenhua",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1523226,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Shenyang Urban",
"home_team_id": 5684,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5684.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shenyang Urban",
"home_team_slug": "shenyang-urban",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "Super League Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_id": 169,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/169.webp",
"league_name": "Super League Trung Qu\u1ed1c",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 11:35:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Shenyang",
"venue_name": "Olympic Sports Centre Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3747,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0938,
"ev": -0.1869,
"implied_prob": 0.6218,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6218,
"draw": 0.1999,
"home": 0.1783
},
"model_prob": 0.3714,
"p_final": 0.528
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1876,
"best_odd": 4.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.1999,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6218,
"draw": 0.1999,
"home": 0.1783
},
"model_prob": 0.2413,
"p_final": 0.2077
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1373,
"best_odd": 5.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6218,
"draw": 0.1999,
"home": 0.1783
},
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"p_final": 0.207
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.2779,
"ev": -0.428,
"implied_prob": 0.6494,
"model_prob": 0.3714
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.79,
"edge": 0.0326,
"ev": 0.156,
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"model_prob": 0.2413
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 5.37,
"edge": 0.201,
"ev": 1.0795,
"implied_prob": 0.1862,
"model_prob": 0.3873
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.62,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0795,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1116,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 25.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 25.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010794999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Shenyang Urban at 38.7% vs market 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Shenyang Urban as the stronger side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Shenyang Urban",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Shenyang Urban, but the model still strongly favours Shenyang Urban.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.186219739292365,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0798,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+108.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 35.6,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.711,
"draw_prob": 0.2413,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3873,
"over_prob": 0.701,
"total_xg": 3.62,
"under_prob": 0.299,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.1116,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shenyang Urban"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.711,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.701,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1523226,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1116,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3714,
"draw": 0.2413,
"home": 0.3873
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shanghai Shenhua",
"home": "Shenyang Urban"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034578,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1116,
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shenyang Urban",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1116,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.37,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3873,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.186219739292365,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0798,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+108.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1523226,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T11:34:06.494651+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Shenyang Urban & Shanghai Shenhua!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Super League Trung Quốc — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 38 |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 27 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 25 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 14 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 54 | 51 | +3 | 38 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 52 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 6 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 31 |
| 7 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 33 |
| 8 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 9 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 25 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
| 12 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 |
| 13 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 14 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 26 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
| 16 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 4.4 | 0.1 | +4.3 | 38 |
| 2 | Shenyang Urban | 26 | 2.8 | 0.8 | +2.0 | 25 |
| 3 | Tianjin Teda | 26 | 1.5 | 0.6 | +0.9 | 25 |
| 4 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 2.1 | 1.5 | +0.6 | 52 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 2.6 | 2.3 | +0.3 | 38 |
| 7 | Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 40 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 26 | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 | 31 |
| 9 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 31 |
| 10 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 21 |
| 11 | Qingdao Jonoon | 26 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 14 |
| 12 | Shanghai SIPG | 26 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 33 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.9 | 28 |
| 14 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 26 | 0.8 | 2.8 | -2.0 | 31 |
| 15 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 2.4 | 7.0 | -4.6 | 37 |
| 16 | Henan Jianye | 26 | — | — | — | 27 |
