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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vila Nova win · Botafogo-SP 0–1 Vila Nova
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4d20eccba98638a5c9e631a4203da688fbf034e24bfc8b163153d6ca08121b3d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"away_win_prob": 0.417,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.623,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3476,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.4,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.88,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.25,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.77,
"home_win_prob": 0.2354,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.291,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.709
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Vila Nova",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Vila Nova"
},
"away_xg": 1.11,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vila Nova",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1113,
"edge_gap": 0.0695,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3057,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.7,
"draw": 34.8,
"home": 23.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.15,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vila Nova Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.27,
"market_odds": 3.15,
"model_odds": 2.4,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 9.9,
"value_pct": 31.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 67.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 53.7,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.11,
"home_expected": 0.77,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Botafogo-SP or Draw",
"prob": 58.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Botafogo-SP or Vila Nova",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"prob": 76.5
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"pick_prob": 76.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.7,
"draw_pct": 34.8,
"home_pct": 23.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.88,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 29.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 70.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.88,
"under_prob": 70.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 31.4,
"implied_prob": 31.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Vila Nova Win",
"model_prob": 41.7,
"odds": 3.15
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Vila Nova",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.57,
"draw": 31.67,
"home": 37.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 21:29:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 20:59:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Botafogo-SP",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.76,
"gap_pp": -14.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 23.55
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.67,
"gap_pp": 3.08,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 34.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.57,
"gap_pp": 11.13,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.23,
"gap_pp": -8.13,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 29.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.77,
"gap_pp": 8.13,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 70.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.76,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.67,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 8.5,
"edge": 5.2,
"ev": 44.0,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 16.9
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.1,
"ev": 0.4365,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.169,
"model_prob_pct": 16.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.9
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.77,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"market_prob": 0.6195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"p_final": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.067,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2492,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.9,
"text": "-24.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1131,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1131,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 29.1,
"sort_key": 10251.79,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 70.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"edge_pp": 4.0,
"market_prob": 0.5457,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"p_final": 0.5852,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0529,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0902,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2083,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0902,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 62.3,
"sort_key": 10081.18,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 37.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0505,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0505,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vila Nova",
"sort_key": 10045.45,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 830.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 16.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"alert_team": "Vila Nova",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.22,
"hero_label": "Botafogo-SP",
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"market_team": "Botafogo-SP",
"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"model_team": "Vila Nova",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.22,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.11,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -18.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.77,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.11,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.77 \u00b7 Away xG 1.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -18%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"steam_team": "Vila Nova",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo-SP 0.77 xG vs Vila Nova 1.11 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.7%",
"Market: Botafogo-SP ~30.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vila Nova \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob": 23.54,
"label": "Botafogo-SP",
"market_prob": 37.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 34.76,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.13,
"fair_prob": 41.7,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob": 30.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.0,
"fair_prob": 29.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.0,
"fair_prob": 70.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.71,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Botafogo-SP",
"market_prob_pct": 37.76,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Vila Nova"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Botafogo-SP\u0027s win probability at 37.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 23.5%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vila Nova",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Vila Nova \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo-SP 0.77 xG vs Vila Nova 1.11 \u2192 Vila Nova 41.7%",
"Market: Botafogo-SP ~30.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Vila Nova \u2193 -3.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.22,
"hero_label": "Botafogo-SP",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Vila Nova odds shortened \u2193 -3.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Vila Nova, with odds shortening by 3.1%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Vila Nova, with odds shortening by 3.1%. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Botafogo-SP more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Vila Nova has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.9 pp (at 41.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.9,
"max_prob_pct": 41.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Botafogo-SP",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Botafogo-SP higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.22,
"edge_pp": -14.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Botafogo-SP",
"market_prob_pct": 37.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.09,
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.13,
"edge_pp": 11.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 30.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo-SP (30.6%).",
"Vila Nova has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.1%, 2/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vila Nova, Market \u2192 Botafogo-SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 Vila Nova.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.22,
"closing_odds": 2.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.22,
"entry_odds": 2.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 51m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Vila Nova (swing 3.20 \u2192 2.81 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.15",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.20 \u2192 2.81 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 61h 51m",
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.15,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Vila Nova",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Vila Nova",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_id": 142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_public_id": "3GqFSytKY8QAdc",
"away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520903,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Botafogo-SP",
"home_team_id": 2618,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2618.webp",
"home_team_name": "Botafogo-SP",
"home_team_public_id": "0AQ3worrpuA921",
"home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp",
"ht.home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 21:30:00",
"public_id": "2Zs6ijieOXs5HI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ribeirao Preto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Santa Cruz"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2499,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0104,
"implied_prob": 0.3167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.3475,
"p_final": 0.3255
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3541,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.1654,
"implied_prob": 0.3776,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.3167,
"home": 0.3776
},
"model_prob": 0.2355,
"p_final": 0.3273
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.15,
"edge": 0.0995,
"ev": 0.3136,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"model_prob": 0.417
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": 0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3475
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.1567,
"ev": -0.3995,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.2355
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5105,
"alpha_yes": 0.4641,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0771,
"edge_yes": -0.0771,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0902,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_yes": -0.2083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1506,
"implied_no": 0.5459,
"implied_yes": 0.4541,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5852,
"p_final_yes": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3636,
"alpha_under": 0.4999,
"best_over_odd": 2.58,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.505,
"edge_over": -0.09,
"edge_under": 0.09,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2492,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1475,
"ev_under": 0.1131,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0003,
"implied_over": 0.381,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3805,
"implied_under": 0.619,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6195,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.348,
"p_final_under": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.88,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1131,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1131,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3136,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 46,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520903 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.2/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.377,
"draw_prob": 0.3475,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.417,
"over_prob": 0.291,
"total_xg": 1.88,
"under_prob": 0.709,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.417,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"market_prob": 0.5457,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5105,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": 0.0395,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.5457,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5852
},
"p_final": 0.5852,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4641,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0359,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"edge": 0.0771,
"ev": 0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"market_prob": 0.6195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3636,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.3805,
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"p_final": 0.6642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0003,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4999,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": 0.0448,
"ev": -0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.6195,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"p_final": 0.6642
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.09,
"ev": 0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.619,
"model_prob": 0.709,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520903,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1131,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.417,
"draw": 0.3475,
"home": 0.2355
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vila Nova",
"home": "Botafogo-SP"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.104244,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.619,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.709,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0505,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.15,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3057,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31746031746031744,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3135,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+31.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520903,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T21:29:20.714944+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Botafogo-SP & Vila Nova!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 53 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 50 |
| 9 | Operário-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiabá | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goiás | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 13 | Náutico Recife | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceará | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 |
| 17 | Avaí | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 32 | 54 | 27 | +27 | 57 |
| 2 | CRB | 32 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 51 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 32 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 58 |
| 4 | Sport Recife | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 50 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 32 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 45 |
| 6 | Operário-PR | 32 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 48 |
| 7 | Atlético Goianiense | 32 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 52 |
| 8 | Londrina | 32 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Náutico Recife | 32 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 32 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 42 |
| 11 | Juventude | 32 | 37 | 19 | +18 | 59 |
| 12 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 56 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 32 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 14 | Ceará | 32 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 42 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 32 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 53 |
| 16 | Cuiabá | 32 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 47 |
| 17 | Goiás | 32 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 18 | Avaí | 32 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 32 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 32 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 57 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 56 |
| 3 | Cuiabá | 32 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 47 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 32 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 52 |
| 5 | Avaí | 32 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 33 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 32 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 58 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 51 |
| 8 | Juventude | 32 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 59 |
| 9 | Criciúma | 32 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 53 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 50 |
| 11 | Londrina | 32 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 45 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 32 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 38 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 32 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Goiás | 32 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 45 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 32 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 32 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 42 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 32 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 32 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
