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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Novorizontino Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 0-0 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Novorizontino 0–0 São Bernardo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3b64e8204a989542aaa742811a6017c70c5ee6c435efc9b37e630ee8d91ba3fc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.83,
"away_win_prob": 0.1907,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.545,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.455,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.292,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.24,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.93,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.51,
"home_win_prob": 0.5173,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.415,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.586
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Novorizontino or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Novorizontino"
},
"away_xg": 0.83,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Novorizontino",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1167,
"edge_gap": 0.2254,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6341,
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 19.1,
"draw": 29.2,
"home": 51.7
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.51
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.51,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Novorizontino Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.58,
"market_odds": 1.51,
"model_odds": 1.93,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": -14.4,
"value_pct": -21.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 56.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 77.9,
"no_prob": 54.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 45.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.83,
"home_expected": 1.51,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Novorizontino or Draw",
"prob": 80.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Novorizontino or S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"prob": 48.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Novorizontino or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 19.1,
"draw_pct": 29.2,
"home_pct": 51.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Novorizontino"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.34,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 41.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.34,
"under_prob": 58.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 29.1,
"implied_prob": 14.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "S\u00e3o Bernardo Win",
"model_prob": 19.1,
"odds": 6.76
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 14.16,
"draw": 22.42,
"home": 63.41
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 22:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 21:59:38",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Novorizontino",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.41,
"gap_pp": -11.67,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 51.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.42,
"gap_pp": 6.78,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.16,
"gap_pp": 4.89,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.06
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.11,
"gap_pp": -11.71,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 41.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.89,
"gap_pp": 11.71,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.27,
"early": 4.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.42,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 6.76,
"early": 6.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.16,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.11,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.89,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.2,
"ev": 0.015,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.145,
"model_prob_pct": 14.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.5
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.51,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0491,
"edge_pp": 4.9,
"market_prob": 0.48,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4709
},
"p_final": 0.5291,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1427,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0318,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5291
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2465,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.6,
"text": "-24.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2013,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.1,
"text": "+20.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2013,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 41.4,
"sort_key": 10331.17,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 58.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
},
"p_final": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0028,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4772
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0628,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1491,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0628,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 54.5,
"sort_key": 10056.52,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 45.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1297,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0188,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2187,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Novorizontino",
"sort_key": 5215.04,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 823.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"alert_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.68,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 63.4,
"market_team": "Novorizontino",
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_team": "Novorizontino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2013,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2883,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 63.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520897 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1297,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2187,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 70,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.68,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.83,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.51,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.51,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.51 \u00b7 Away xG 0.83 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +12%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"steam_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2013,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2883,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 63.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520897 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1297,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2187,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Novorizontino 1.51 xG vs S\u00e3o Bernardo 0.83 \u2192 Novorizontino 51.7%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~63.4% implied",
"Market Drift: S\u00e3o Bernardo odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Novorizontino projects stronger on expected goals (+0.68 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob": 51.73,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob": 63.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob": 19.07,
"label": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"market_prob": 14.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.87,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.87,
"fair_prob": 58.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.73,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.73,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 63.41,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "S\u00e3o Bernardo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Novorizontino\u0027s win probability at 63.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 51.7%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Novorizontino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 63.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 70,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Novorizontino 1.51 xG vs S\u00e3o Bernardo 0.83 \u2192 Novorizontino 51.7%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~63.4% implied",
"Market Drift: S\u00e3o Bernardo odds \u2191 +4.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Novorizontino projects stronger on expected goals (+0.68 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.68,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "S\u00e3o Bernardo odds lengthened \u2191 +4.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, S\u00e3o Bernardo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Novorizontino than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from S\u00e3o Bernardo \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Novorizontino than the current fair estimate.",
"However, S\u00e3o Bernardo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from S\u00e3o Bernardo \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Novorizontino more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, S\u00e3o Bernardo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on S\u00e3o Bernardo."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.5 pp (at 51.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.5,
"max_prob_pct": 51.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Novorizontino",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Novorizontino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.68,
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.73,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 63.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.78,
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.91,
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"market_prob_pct": 14.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from S\u00e3o Bernardo \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Novorizontino (63.4%).",
"However, S\u00e3o Bernardo has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +4.2%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on S\u00e3o Bernardo (4.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.76",
"6.38",
"6.00"
],
"display": "6.71 \u2192 4.84 \u2192 6.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 49m",
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.0,
6.76,
6.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 6.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"open_odds": 6.0,
"pick_team": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sao-bernardo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"away_team_id": 7865,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7865.webp",
"away_team_name": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"away_team_public_id": "3jGd22NUVMDTop",
"away_team_slug": "sao-bernardo",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520897,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Novorizontino",
"home_team_id": 7834,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7834.webp",
"home_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"home_team_public_id": "2Bs7BSUbq4qcHu",
"home_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"ht.home_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 22:30:00",
"public_id": "02pACNxi00OY7Y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "New Horizons",
"venue_name": "Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1853,
"best_odd": 6.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.1416,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1416,
"draw": 0.2242,
"home": 0.6341
},
"model_prob": 0.1906,
"p_final": 0.1507
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1797,
"best_odd": 4.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": 0.0095,
"implied_prob": 0.2242,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1416,
"draw": 0.2242,
"home": 0.6341
},
"model_prob": 0.292,
"p_final": 0.2364
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.495,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0578,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1416,
"draw": 0.2242,
"home": 0.6341
},
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"p_final": 0.5764
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.76,
"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.2883,
"implied_prob": 0.1479,
"model_prob": 0.1906
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.27,
"edge": 0.0578,
"ev": 0.2468,
"implied_prob": 0.2342,
"model_prob": 0.292
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.1448,
"ev": -0.2187,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.5174
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4906,
"alpha_yes": 0.4906,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0473,
"edge_yes": -0.0473,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0628,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0381,
"ev_yes": -0.1491,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4772
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5228,
"p_final_yes": 0.4772,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4636,
"alpha_under": 0.4636,
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.1087,
"edge_under": 0.1087,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2465,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1525,
"ev_under": 0.2013,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0318,
"implied_over": 0.5227,
"implied_over_mf": 0.52,
"implied_under": 0.4773,
"implied_under_mf": 0.48,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4709
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5291
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4709,
"p_final_under": 0.5291,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.34,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2013,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2883,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2013,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2013,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2883,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 63.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.20 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520897 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.20 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Novorizontino).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 70,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1297,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2187,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.455,
"draw_prob": 0.292,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5174,
"over_prob": 0.414,
"total_xg": 2.34,
"under_prob": 0.586,
"xg_diff": 0.68
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0578,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Novorizontino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5228
},
"p_final": 0.5228,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4906,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4772
}
},
"edge": 0.0473,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0491,
"market_prob": 0.48,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.52,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.4709
},
"p_final": 0.5291,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0318,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.48,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.5291
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1087,
"ev": 0.2013,
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520897,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2013,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1906,
"draw": 0.292,
"home": 0.5174
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "S\u00e3o Bernardo",
"home": "Novorizontino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.117962,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2013,
"implied_prob": 0.4773,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.586,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1297,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6341,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5174,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2187,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520897,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T22:29:12.058480+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Novorizontino & São Bernardo!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operário-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiabá | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goiás | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceará | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avaí | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operário-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceará | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiabá | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goiás | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avaí | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiabá | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avaí | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciúma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goiás | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
