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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Fortaleza EC win · Londrina 1–2 Fortaleza EC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"away_win_prob": 0.4144,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.478,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.522,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2993,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.41,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.34,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.49,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.12,
"home_win_prob": 0.2863,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.459,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.541
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Fortaleza EC and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0508,
"edge_gap": 0.1154,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3637,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.5,
"draw": 29.9,
"home": 28.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.65
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"label": "Away",
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"market_odds": 2.65,
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"overround": 3.7,
"prob_edge": 3.8,
"value_pct": 10.0,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 75.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 67.4,
"no_prob": 47.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.12,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Londrina or Draw",
"prob": 58.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Londrina or Fortaleza EC",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fortaleza EC",
"prob": 71.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Fortaleza EC",
"pick_prob": 71.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.4,
"draw_pct": 29.9,
"home_pct": 28.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.51,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.51,
"under_prob": 54.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.0,
"implied_prob": 37.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Fortaleza EC Win",
"model_prob": 41.5,
"odds": 2.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.37,
"draw": 31.6,
"home": 32.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 21:29:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 21:01:03",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Londrina",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.02,
"gap_pp": -3.39,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.6,
"gap_pp": -1.69,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.37,
"gap_pp": 5.08,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.8,
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 45.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.2,
"gap_pp": -6.1,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 54.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.01,
"early": 3.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.02,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.42,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.6,
"early": 1.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.7,
"ev": -0.2253,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.1,
"market_prob": 0.1639,
"market_prob_pct": 16.4,
"model_prob": 0.127,
"model_prob_pct": 12.7,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.12,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.4,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1108,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.1,
"text": "+11.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1344,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1108,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10249.72,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 54.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.475,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.522,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0153,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0315,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1396,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.044,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.044,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 47.8,
"sort_key": 10039.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0199,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"sort_key": 5215.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"alert_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"market_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.07,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"steam_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob": 28.63,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob": 32.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob": 29.93,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 41.44,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob": 36.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.94,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.94,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.75,
"fair_prob": 52.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.75,
"fair_prob": 47.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Fortaleza EC\u0027s win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.4%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Fortaleza EC odds lengthened \u2191 +10.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Recent line movement on Fortaleza EC (\u2191 +10.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Fortaleza EC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.1,
"lead": "The model rates Fortaleza EC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.39,
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob_pct": 32.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.67,
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fortaleza EC (36.4%).",
"Fortaleza EC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fortaleza EC, Market \u2192 Fortaleza EC, while Fortaleza EC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
"closing_odds": 2.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
"entry_odds": 2.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Fortaleza EC (10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.65",
"2.51",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.65,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Fortaleza EC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved away from Fortaleza EC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Fortaleza EC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_id": 154,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/154.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_public_id": "3KvkFHVvgDwS2g",
"away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_id": 148,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/148.webp",
"home_team_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_public_id": "4DndKVE5Ys61Lp",
"home_team_slug": "londrina",
"ht.home_team_slug": "londrina",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:30:00",
"public_id": "4gW9dbjuDXciV3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Londrina",
"venue_name": "Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"p_final": 0.3849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2924,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2991,
"p_final": 0.3111
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2863,
"p_final": 0.3106
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.4146
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.0876,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2991
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5368,
"alpha_yes": 0.488,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0475,
"edge_yes": 0.0475,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1396,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.044,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0315,
"implied_no": 0.5255,
"implied_yes": 0.4745,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4998,
"p_final_yes": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3828,
"alpha_under": 0.5264,
"best_over_odd": 2.42,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.56,
"edge_over": 0.0594,
"edge_under": -0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1108,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_under": -0.1344,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_over": 0.3996,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4,
"implied_under": 0.6004,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4226,
"p_final_under": 0.5689,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.51,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.522,
"draw_prob": 0.2991,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4146,
"over_prob": 0.459,
"total_xg": 2.51,
"under_prob": 0.541,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.475,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.522,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0315,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"edge": 0.0475,
"ev": 0.044,
"implied_prob": 0.4745,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"market_prob": 0.4,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"p_final": 0.4226,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0111,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0594,
"ev": 0.1108,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520885,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1108,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4146,
"draw": 0.2991,
"home": 0.2863
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortaleza EC",
"home": "Londrina"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031328,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1108,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T21:29:12.789834+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Londrina & Fortaleza EC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Serie B Brazil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciúma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operário-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiabá | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goiás | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceará | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avaí | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operário-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceará | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciúma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiabá | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goiás | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avaí | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiabá | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atlético Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avaí | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciúma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Náutico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goiás | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operário-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceará | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
